Germany strong arms Austria-Hungary into compensating Italy for Bosnia

[Historywatcher0]

Austria's annexation of Bosnia, which it had previously occupied, is noted as one of the flashpoints to WW1. Russia of course (or more accurately a Russian minister) made claims of compensation regarding Bosnia. But Italy was also put out regarding this expansion, which they got nothing for.

What if Germany, had for whatever reason demanded that if Austria wanted backing in this move, they would have to reach a deal with Italy, on at least some of the Italian claims on Austria-Hungary?

Maybe German diplomats realise that the alliance is shaky with the border issues, and tries to settle them. Or maybe they just want a surer footing if it does go to war.

What would be the likely deal? Germany wants to give Italy some compensation, but they aren't going to support maximal Italian claims on Austria.

And what would be the consequence if both sides accept? Austria might feel put out, but do they really have the independent capacity to seek a new course? France is tied to Russia, and Britain isn't going to be dragged into a mutual alliance, they much prefer more one sided relations. But maybe it will limit Austria in the Balkans, as they know they don't have a blank cheque for future action.

Italy is happier, but their full claims aren't complete. But this likely gives a boost to the government of the day, and a friendlier relationship with Germany.

Russia might feel a bit more put out, since Austria is in this case, giving compensation to another power.

Finally, are there are other things that likely get tied in? Austria might demand that Germany give a little, such as a colony to Italy, a border adjustment with Austria in Poland, or maybe just financial compensation to Austria. Or Austria might want to horse-trade bits of the Ottoman's corpse, such as Albania or Libya.

 

[Nivek]

What if Germany, had for whatever reason demanded that if Austria wanted backing in this move, they would have to reach a deal with Italy, on at least some of the Italian claims on Austria-Hungary?

The thing is Germany doesn't give a damn about it and the Italians so nothing happened as the German never cared,heck they even know Italian already abandoned the alliance defacto too)

 

[Historywatcher0]

The thing is Germany doesn't give a damn about it and the Italians so nothing happened as the German never cared,heck they even know Italian already abandoned the alliance defacto too)

Well for the purpose of the question, they do care about shoring up the alliance, and are taking a more active view in managing the European alliances. Instead of letting the Austrians, the weaker partner drive them into crisis in the Balkans.

 

[Nivek]

Well for the purpose of the question, they do care about shoring up the alliance, and are taking a more active view in managing the European alliances. Instead of letting the Austrians, the weaker partner drive them into crisis in the Balkans.

Austria was never the weak partner, that's a myth historians has wrote since entete victory,the thing is only Russia who wanted everything cared about Bosnia, and Italy playing the empire it never was. So nope nobody will give it a damn

 

[Historywatcher0]

Austria was never the weak partner, that's a myth historians has wrote since entete victory,the thing is only Russia who wanted everything cared about Bosnia, and Italy playing the empire it never was. So nope nobody will give it a damn

Austria was the weaker partner, and they knew it. Their military floundered against Russia and Serbia, and ended up increasingly under the sway of officers from Germany. Germany also had the superior economy, and took the lead in peace negotiations with Russia and Romania. Austria-Hungary was openly discussed as basically a vassal to Germany.

And Austria-Hungary knows it can't fight Russia and Serbia alone, let alone Italy piling in. Which is why it wanted the blank cheque in OTL. Germany was key to their security.

 

[marathag]

Austria was the weaker partner, and they knew it

Nobody really knew that at the time when A-H gave an out to the Ottomans, and changed de-facto administrative control of B-H to de-jure as the Ottomans were losing in the Balkan Wars.

Militarily, the last fight the Austrians did was in China, and performed adequately, while Italy had the black eye from the battle of Adwa and failing badly against Ethiopia.

This would change slightly by beating up on the weakened Ottomans in 1912.

Problem was, Germany was trying to prop up the Ottomans, so that action didn't gain much favor in Berlin.

 

[raharris1973]

Austria was never the weak partner, that's a myth historians has wrote since entete victory,

Weaker than Italy?

I would agree, Austria was not.

Weaker than Germany?

Austria certainly was, and that was obvious to everyone.

The thing is Germany doesn't give a damn about it and the Italians so nothing happened as the German never cared,heck they even know Italian already abandoned the alliance defacto too)

Their military planners in Germany certainly didn't write like they knew about Italian abandonment of the alliance, they continued to factor in Italian reinforcements for the defense of Alsace as late as 1914.

 

[raharris1973]

It would have been interesting to see the Germans offer the Austrians a conditional check in 1914. We will back you up if the Italians will too. All of us Triple Alliance partners need to stick together for this to work. From an Austrian POV, that would be like offering no check at all, and the Austrians would know they're on their own, with probable world-changing consequences.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I do not simply see the talks going anywhere, especially because the Austrians feel they're on top of the world (even if they did that by isolating themselves), the Italians have bad street cred (mostly deserved), and most importantly, unless Germany is determined to suddenly try and patch up with Russia (very hard), it simply does not have the alternatives either.
And as for the prizes? Austria will veto anything not worthless out of hand, and prizes to be taken from the Ottomans are simply not theirs to give and thus "a free hand to go beg for Libya" is not going to go over very well even if it's the same as OTL, just because of optics.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

About the only realistic concession I can imagine is Albania. By itself, I don't think that this would alter the geopolitical balance; there were a lot of other issues underlying the breakdown of the Triple Alliance. That being said, neither was the total collapse of the alliance totally in the cards. The bigger issue is that any PoD before the July Crisis probably avoids the OTL trigger of Franz Ferdinand's assassination; delaying the war for even a few years could result in fairly serious changes.

Assuming a butterfly net, one of two things happens-
1) Italy still joins the Entente. Having Albania might persuade them to open up a southern front; hardly worse than bashing one's head against the Carso, albeit it isn't the best terrain. Still, if Serbia can be kept in the war longer, that would potentially dovetail to a worse Austrian performance.

2) Italy stays out. Requires some additional leg-work- more concessions, changes in personnel, different alliances, etc. Presumably keeps Austria from collapsing as bad as OTL.

 

[Germaniac]

The only concessions the Italians would accept were Libya or Albania. The Austrians will never willingly allow the Italians to have sole influence over both sides of the Adriatic so Albania is a non starter, not to mention the Ottomans won't give it up without a fight.

Libya is more possible. IF the great powers, and Germany taking a more active role in pushing for it, come together in conference to renegotiate the Treaty of Berlin the new Ottoman government may be willing to give up a protectorate of Libya for economic concessions regarding the capitulations (most notably the tariff question).

 

[raharris1973]

The only concessions the Italians would accept were Libya or Albania. The Austrians will never willingly allow the Italians to have sole influence over both sides of the Adriatic so Albania is a non starter, not to mention the Ottomans won't give it up without a fight.

Libya is more possible. IF the great powers, and Germany taking a more active role in pushing for it, come together in conference to renegotiate the Treaty of Berlin the new Ottoman government may be willing to give up a protectorate of Libya for economic concessions regarding the capitulations (most notably the tariff question).

I see what's in it for Italy - a Libya protectorate.
I see what's in it for Germany and Austria-Hungary, appeasing a miffed ally (Italy)
What's in it for Britain, France, and Russia though, to concede an Ottoman right to charge higher tariffs on their goods, or to do Italy a favor, specifically at the behest of Germany?

 

[Fehérvári]

AFAIK, Italy wasn't entitled to any kind of compensation in the first place. The Triple Alliance explicitly aknowledged Austria-Hungary's right to annex Bosnia. Beyond that, Austria-Hungary actually lost position in the Balkans by the evacuation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar and by the capitulation of some trade rights concerning Montenegro.

 

[Evil Crusader]

AFAIK, Italy wasn't entitled to any kind of compensation in the first place. The Triple Alliance explicitly aknowledged Austria-Hungary's right to annex Bosnia. Beyond that, Austria-Hungary actually lost position in the Balkans by the evacuation of the Sanjak of Novi Pazar and by the capitulation of some trade rights concerning Montenegro.

This is the text. A-H's position was more along the lines of "it was already awarded to us in 1878 anyways".

 

[Fehérvári]

This is the text. A-H's position was more along the lines of "it was already awarded to us in 1878 anyways".

The text seems to confirm what I said in regards to the compensation though. There's a strong emphasis on territorial changes and nothing about legal changes. Bosnia was already de facto Austro-Hungarian, its annexation merely confirmed it. This also means that Italy didn't get disadvantaged in any form either.