What if Germany signed peace with the allies early 1941? And didn't invade Russia and only annexed minor territory from the Allies except for Poland? I think if the war was decisive enough where Italy did way better in real life, Germany didn't stop at Dunkirk and committed more to Italy's better campaigns in a short time, the allies would accept German demands that are not too drastic. AKA annexing German speaking territories from Limburg to Elsass Lothringen, Slovenia, Posen, Danzig and some extra Polish territory. Italy taking over Corsica, Epirus, Tunisia and Savoy. Britain not losing much. Do you think this is possible and interesting? Also would you like to see a timeline of possible events in this alternate history? Would Japan go solo with its puppets?
Germany signs peace with Allies before Invasion of Russia where the Allies would possibly accept.
I don't see Churchill accepting any kind of peace other than the unconditional surrender of the Axis or at least restoration of status quo. Why? Because this:
“I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend our Island home, to ride out the storm of war, and to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone.
At any rate, that is what we are going to try to do. That is the resolve of His Majesty’s Government-every man of them. That is the will of Parliament and the nation.
The British Empire and the French Republic, linked together in their cause and in their need, will defend to the death their native soil, aiding each other like good comrades to the utmost of their strength.
Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail.
We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France,
we shall fight on the seas and oceans,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on the beaches,
we shall fight on the landing grounds,
we shall fight in the fields and in the streets,
we shall fight in the hills;
we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.”
Yeah, this doesn't sound like a man who is about to sign peace.
“I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend our Island home, to ride out the storm of war, and to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone.
At any rate, that is what we are going to try to do. That is the resolve of His Majesty’s Government-every man of them. That is the will of Parliament and the nation.
The British Empire and the French Republic, linked together in their cause and in their need, will defend to the death their native soil, aiding each other like good comrades to the utmost of their strength.
Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail.
We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France,
we shall fight on the seas and oceans,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on the beaches,
we shall fight on the landing grounds,
we shall fight in the fields and in the streets,
we shall fight in the hills;
we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.”
Yeah, this doesn't sound like a man who is about to sign peace.
Wallet
Banned
Damn, I didn't realize Churchill's whole plan depended on the US joining the war. I wonder if he tried to influence the 1940 election
Interesting article - can't find the book mentioned on the UK amazon site unfortunately.
There's one alleged piece of British influence that wasn't mentioned. The British discovered a spy in the US Embassy in mid-1940. With the permission of Joe Kennedy Snr, then ambassador, (he waived diplomatic immunity) they were able to arrest him. It seems that though convicted of spying for the Nazis some of the evidence was overblown - the guy later successfully sued anyone in the US who wrote he was a German spy. (The twist is he may have been a Soviet spy instead!) He had claimed IIRC to be keeping copies of telegrams between Churchill and FDR on Kennedy's orders. From this and other sources the UK had enough information for FDR to blackmail Kennedy senior from standing against him for Democrat nominee, or otherwise hurt FDR's chances of re-election. I think Churchill and FDR feared Kennedy could have turned the Irish-American vote against Roosevelt and toward isolationism, in line with his own anti-British sentiment,
I'm not sure how much of this story is true. As I think this Kennedy had links with bootleggers, shady stock market dealings around the time of the Wall St. Crash and some dodgy dealings in wartime Europe, it couldn't have happened to a nicer guy though, if true.
Is it interfering in a US election to co-operate with then US President to get dirt on a rival politician. Hmm, sounds familiar in a way!!
The biggest problem with peace with Nazi-germany would be Hitler. By invading (nom-Sudeten) Czechia Hitler proved that he was completly unreliable and untrustworthy. If you make a peace deal with him, you cannot rely on him keeping the peace. In short, you cannot make peace with Hitler.
Another problem is Hitler's megalomania. I think that (if we ignore the first thing I said) Britain could accept a peace in which Germany returns to its 1914 borders, thus restoring the sovereinity of Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and (rump) Poland*. That would be a great peace for Germany. i don't think Hitler is going to accept anything it. He is winning and wants to keep everything he got.
In short, if you want peace, you need someone else than Hitler (and probably the entire Nazi-party) to rule Germany.
*They might even accept annexation of (the rather German) Luxemburg, or possibly a plebiscite. Also the peae would no doubt need to include repartations from France and something to ensure that France would not stab Germany in the back, while they are attacking the Soviet Union, a demilitairised zone and disarmament or something like that.
Another problem is Hitler's megalomania. I think that (if we ignore the first thing I said) Britain could accept a peace in which Germany returns to its 1914 borders, thus restoring the sovereinity of Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, France and (rump) Poland*. That would be a great peace for Germany. i don't think Hitler is going to accept anything it. He is winning and wants to keep everything he got.
In short, if you want peace, you need someone else than Hitler (and probably the entire Nazi-party) to rule Germany.
*They might even accept annexation of (the rather German) Luxemburg, or possibly a plebiscite. Also the peae would no doubt need to include repartations from France and something to ensure that France would not stab Germany in the back, while they are attacking the Soviet Union, a demilitairised zone and disarmament or something like that.
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Quite. I could just about imagine a Britain where Churchill died in late 1940, after the BOB but before the Greek imbroglio, being willing to make a "White Peace" with Germany*. But any terms that even the most peace-minded senior UK politician** could accept would not be offered by Hitler. Or vv, any terms that Britain offered Hitler in negotiations would be completely unacceptable to Hitler.
Even a cease-fire pending genuine negotiations (rather a Hitler rant) is unlikely. But it would still be an interesting POD. In some ways Hitler should have been willing to offer the UK almost any terms short of giving up Poland. He could let other countries occupied be 'Finlandised' or demilitarised and brought into a formal Germanic EU to get trade rather than looting. So he can secure his rear and focus on Barbarossa. Fortunately he didn't see the need to do this and the UK was seen as an irritant rather than something that must be neutralised before Barbarossa had any chance of leading to a successful longish war against the USSR.
* Especially if relations with the US are less warm and Lend-Lease is either not offered (at all or as timely as OTL) or an Empire Loyalist administration finds the attached terms unacceptable.
** Halifax, Butler, Lloyd George, probably some I've missed. Hoare too obviously, if brought back from exile in Madrid - or he could be a conduit for an offer to talk.
trajen777
Banned
I think the best options for this to happen would be :
1. Churchill dies
2. Germans trap much of the GB army at Dunkirk
3. Italians have Rommel's panzer Africa pre their destruction by the Brit army -- or their is a licence agreement so the Italians have Pz 3 or 4 and win.
4. Hitler Dies
5. USSR and Germany announce USSR joining Germany in alliance
My favorite is :
1. Churchill dies, i think Wiking did something on this where Churchill's ship was almost torpedoed and he dies
2. Dunkirk is Brit disaster
3. Hitler dies (there were many attempts ) have one of these succeed :https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassination_attempts_on_Adolf_Hitler
a. 1939 Berlin Erich Kordt
b. 1940 Paris, France Erwin von Witzleben
c. 1941 Berlin Nikolaus von Halem
4. Goering takes over and GB comes to terms
1. Churchill dies
2. Germans trap much of the GB army at Dunkirk
3. Italians have Rommel's panzer Africa pre their destruction by the Brit army -- or their is a licence agreement so the Italians have Pz 3 or 4 and win.
4. Hitler Dies
5. USSR and Germany announce USSR joining Germany in alliance
My favorite is :
1. Churchill dies, i think Wiking did something on this where Churchill's ship was almost torpedoed and he dies
2. Dunkirk is Brit disaster
3. Hitler dies (there were many attempts ) have one of these succeed :https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassination_attempts_on_Adolf_Hitler
a. 1939 Berlin Erich Kordt
b. 1940 Paris, France Erwin von Witzleben
c. 1941 Berlin Nikolaus von Halem
4. Goering takes over and GB comes to terms
All have a certain plausibility. I'm not sure for your favourite you need (2) but it would help. As would no Hitler.
What terms do you envisage and what would Goering, the Soviets and the USA do?
trajen777
Banned
With Goring in charge after the fall France i think you would see (also some or all of the above in place) :
1. Germany keeps all of its pre 39 conquests + Poland
2. Lux part of Germany
3. AL part of Germany
4. The coal regions of France (think Brie - Long region)
5. Middle Europa (Eurozone) --
USSR :
1. Stalin was conservative so he would be happy with diminished Finland, and conquest of Baltic states.
2. Build up army
3. Builds up USSR
4. Abides by the NA pact and trade increases
USA
1. Builds up forces
2. Focus on Asia
See no future war, Nazi party becomes more watered down as time goes on, maybe Madagascar plan for the undesirables.
Not convinced ATM but it's worth a ponder. Or a TL to see how it would pan out.
I have my doubts about this. The Soviet Union always was the major enemy of Nazi Germany. The end game always was to destroy the Soviet Union and expand Germany. Even if apost-Hitler Nazi Germany wouldn't go to war with them, I realy doubt they would make an official alliance. The communists (and Slavs) are basicly the German bogeyman.
Actualy, an alliance against who?If Nazi Germany made peace with Britain, humiliated and destroyed France, they don't need an alliance. Who is going to attack Germany? Germany only has one enemy left: the Soviet Union. Why ally with them? Even if relations are good enough that they don't go to war with each other, there is no need for an alliance.
But the nazis were pragmatic enough to deal with the USSR when they had to, such as in August 1939, and were prepared to form an alliance late in 1940, albeit not on terms the USSR wanted.
But by late 1940 the Germans had been unable to conclude the war, and needed help to force Britain out of it.
Status quo ante bellum. Or even status quo prior to '38.
Sure but it wasn't certain he'd last. Had Germany, for example, refrained from attacking Russia in '41 and threw everything it had or could against Britain--from the high seas to North Africa, and perhaps even enticing the Russians to join them--he might've ben forced from power.
As I said before. Hitler was completely unreliable in the treaties he made. The Soviet union was the main enemy of the Nazi's. The only reason for the deal with the Soviet union was to secure his eastern flank, so he could deal with France and Britain and to attack the Soviet Union later. Exactly what happened OTL, just without having dealt with the British
You misread what he said.
He said of Britain itself is overrun or starved out, then he would rely on the New world.
However he also said he didn't anticipate Britain being overran or starved out.
Istr reading (I think in Martin Gilbert's Finest Hour but it was years ago and I can't be sure) that Churchill said in late 1940 that if Hitler offered peace on the basis of Germany regaining her lost colonies and her 1914 frontier in Poland, he would recommend acceptance, given the uncertainty as to whether continued war could improve on this result. However, he went on to add that he considered this a very theoretical case, as in his view Hitler was most unlikely to offer such moderate terms.
Hitler basically made that proposal. He did actually make some EXTREMELY generous peace overtures to the British, but their position in July 1940 was there would be absolutely no negotiation with Hitler AT ALL.
This ends with British nukes on Berlin, Americans storming the beaches of Normandy, or the Red Army taking Berlin. Either way Germany had lost no matter what they did. And they had to invade the USSR for the oil in their minds.
I know he was willing to leave the British Empire alone, but give up all the occupied countries? I'd appreciate a source for that.
Atom bombs were expensive. Also much harder to get planes flying over land and avoid anti-aircraft guns and the local air force than if you send a plane from sea. Or so I imagine. Anyways, the British wouldn't be able to make a bomb in their own, if only because they were rather busy at the time and had other priorities. And the Germans invaded the Soviets for the food as well. Also probably helped cover up the embarrassment of not beating the British yet, though it wouldn't be a prime reason. I actually read somewhere that Hitler declared war on the US partially because it meant he could give a grand speech instead of talking about the failed expectations on the Eastern Front. Again, not a prime motive. It still helps us to look into people's mindsets.