Germany prepares for war July 5th 1914

Tirpitz in his memiors (a free download for your Nook), mentions the Kaiser was aware that at this point, even if Bethman and others were not that a world war was possible (Blank Check to Austria had been issued July 5th). Tirpitz believed Germany shoud have been discreetly buying war strategic materials at this point while there was still time before an English blockage cut them off.

Question is, what could Germany have done from July 5th to early August to better prepare for war?????? Some ideas:

1) Buying phophates, copper, rubber, nickel etc...
2) Bring back the most valuable merchant ships and liners.
3) Send supply ships out to the colonies
4) Fit out more merchant raiders.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Tirpitz in his memiors (a free download for your Nook), mentions the Kaiser was aware that at this point, even if Bethman and others were not that a world war was possible (Blank Check to Austria had been issued July 5th). Tirpitz believed Germany shoud have been discreetly buying war strategic materials at this point while there was still time before an English blockage cut them off.

Question is, what could Germany have done from July 5th to early August to better prepare for war?????? Some ideas:

1) Buying phophates, copper, rubber, nickel etc...
2) Bring back the most valuable merchant ships and liners.
3) Send supply ships out to the colonies
4) Fit out more merchant raiders.

Well, the Kaiser taking the war seriously and preparing is a huge POD. These are the more rational steps in rough order of importance.

-German GHQ/Austrian GHQ agree on unified land war plan.
-Can Germany do a Russia first plan in a month? Can German partially mobilize without being detected? For example, bring up some second-class reserve units for additional training that just happened to be ready when the war starts? Can German arms factories run extra shifts without raising the alarm?
-Navy have plan to start war. If Tirpitz knew, why did he not prepare the fleet? Did the book answer that?
-Probably enough time to order goods from Europe to arrive by train.
-About July 27th, the could prevent German merchant ships from leaving Germany, and start refitting as merchant cruisers. But they then have to be slipped past the blockade, some would make it. At least the Entente capture less German shipping in port. With a plan, a lot could be done. Question: What was Tripitz plan for war with Britain on June 1, 1914?
-30 days is not enough time to complete a round trip from oversea suppliers to Germany, so little extra could be brought in.
-Arming merchant cruisers sounds nice, but that likely tips off the other navies, much like mobilizing the land forces did. It could work, but lots of butterflies.

To me, it sounds like he is making excuse for a poorly handle surface naval war. What was he doing in the preceding decade.
 
To me, it sounds like he is making excuse for a poorly handle surface naval war. What was he doing in the preceding decade.

These after the war memiors do tend to be a lot of butt covering. His big points (here is what I remember from the book anyway).

1) Germany should have accepted the offer of an international conference during the July crisis instead of letting (or even pushing) Austria to invade Serbia. (i.e take what Serbia had agreed to accept and continue to negotiate what she didn't)
2) War in 1914 was a bad idea Germany (and most importantly for Tirpitz, for the Navy). The navy only continued to get stronger and the the idea of permanent peace would only get stronger and Germany could use her Navy to get stuff like the Portugese colonies in the future for free.
3) He was forbidden from returning to Berlin during much of the July crisis to make it seem like things were not getting out of hand.
4) Bethman and the people running Germany and especially the diplomatic people were morons and especially screwed up the July crisis.
5) He didn't want Germany to declare war on Russia, since Germany was on the defensive according to plan, make the Russians declare war, declaring war only made Germany look like the aggressor.
6) He though the military mission to Constantinople before the war was a bad idea, better to let the Russians get invoved here and end up tangling with the English.
7) Acknowledged the Russians would be ready for war in 1916 but figured as long as the Czar was around they they wouldn't actually attack their Monarchy buddies and there were plenty of other outlets for Russia's energy that Germany should have encouraged.
8) Thought that Germany should have started aquiring strategic materials after July 5th 1914.
9) Though a naval/economic agreement with Denmark in exchange for territory was a good idea.
10) And of course why building a big Navy in its Mahan configuration was a great idea.
 
These after the war memiors do tend to be a lot of butt covering. His big points (here is what I remember from the book anyway).

1) Germany should have accepted the offer of an international conference during the July crisis instead of letting (or even pushing) Austria to invade Serbia. (i.e take what Serbia had agreed to accept and continue to negotiate what she didn't)
2) War in 1914 was a bad idea Germany (and most importantly for Tirpitz, for the Navy). The navy only continued to get stronger and the the idea of permanent peace would only get stronger and Germany could use her Navy to get stuff like the Portugese colonies in the future for free.
3) He was forbidden from returning to Berlin during much of the July crisis to make it seem like things were not getting out of hand.
4) Bethman and the people running Germany and especially the diplomatic people were morons and especially screwed up the July crisis.
5) He didn't want Germany to declare war on Russia, since Germany was on the defensive according to plan, make the Russians declare war, declaring war only made Germany look like the aggressor.
6) He though the military mission to Constantinople before the war was a bad idea, better to let the Russians get invoved here and end up tangling with the English.
7) Acknowledged the Russians would be ready for war in 1916 but figured as long as the Czar was around they they wouldn't actually attack their Monarchy buddies and there were plenty of other outlets for Russia's energy that Germany should have encouraged.

8) Thought that Germany should have started aquiring strategic materials after July 5th 1914.
9) Though a naval/economic agreement with Denmark in exchange for territory was a good idea.
10) And of course why building a big Navy in its Mahan configuration was a great idea.

I don't know enough about the period to attempt this, but the boldfaced section presents an interesting POD for a very different Germany-Russia TL in World War I. If Russia could have been encouraged to look south or even east, the possibilities are, to say the least, interesting. Without needing to expend men and material in the east, could Germany have successfully ended the war much more quickly in the west?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
These after the war memiors do tend to be a lot of butt covering. His big points (here is what I remember from the book anyway).

1) Germany should have accepted the offer of an international conference during the July crisis instead of letting (or even pushing) Austria to invade Serbia. (i.e take what Serbia had agreed to accept and continue to negotiate what she didn't)
2) War in 1914 was a bad idea Germany (and most importantly for Tirpitz, for the Navy). The navy only continued to get stronger and the the idea of permanent peace would only get stronger and Germany could use her Navy to get stuff like the Portugese colonies in the future for free.
3) He was forbidden from returning to Berlin during much of the July crisis to make it seem like things were not getting out of hand.
4) Bethman and the people running Germany and especially the diplomatic people were morons and especially screwed up the July crisis.
5) He didn't want Germany to declare war on Russia, since Germany was on the defensive according to plan, make the Russians declare war, declaring war only made Germany look like the aggressor.
6) He though the military mission to Constantinople before the war was a bad idea, better to let the Russians get invoved here and end up tangling with the English.
7) Acknowledged the Russians would be ready for war in 1916 but figured as long as the Czar was around they they wouldn't actually attack their Monarchy buddies and there were plenty of other outlets for Russia's energy that Germany should have encouraged.
8) Thought that Germany should have started aquiring strategic materials after July 5th 1914.
9) Though a naval/economic agreement with Denmark in exchange for territory was a good idea.
10) And of course why building a big Navy in its Mahan configuration was a great idea.

Point 8, he is making this up. Calculate round trip distance from oversea suppliers at 10-15 knots. You can accept what I say, or do a calculations you self. Freighters don't sit around empty, so for any real volume, we would be talking about unloading freighters in Germany, then sending them say to Chile for nitrates. A lot of these trips are near 10,000 miles, so at 10 knots is 1000 hours or 41 days. Add say 5 days in port, and it is nearer 46 days. An this assumes the item is in inventory, and does not have to be made.

Sure, they could have gotten a few (5-25) more freighters of stuff, say 100,000 tons, but it would not have made a big difference, unless he gave some war winning item just sitting on the docks of say New York waiting to be bought.

An all this is excuse making. A competent admiral/general always has a War Plan to fight likely opponents. If he would have had "War Plan Scapa Flow", he literally could have sent a 20 word message, and the preparation would have begun. In fact, if it was a good plan, the mobilization order (declaration of martial law) on about July 29 would have trigger automatic alert increase by the fleet, and by August 1, the fleet should have been ready to sail with both a War Plan France and a War Plan France/UK. Instead, on August 6 he sends out about 10 U-boats out of 40 while the High Seas Fleet sits in port.

http://www.searates.com/reference/portdistance/
 
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