Germany or Japan: Which military was worse off in 1944?

What if Kurita ignored TF 3 and went straight to Leyte gulf? The carriers probably wouldn't have been ordered back until he reached it (there was confusion about the identity or intent of the center force until it actually began attacking) and then it could've been too late.

He can't ignore Taffy 3. If he does Taffy 3 pulls away to the squalls as it tried historically and without the pressure of an attack all three Taffy's have time to rearm their strike aircraft. Then instead of facing desperate delaying attacks Kurita is facing a mass strike of 350 properly armed planes which is probably enough to end his attack by itself. If it isn't there are 60 destroyers guarding the landing area plus 4 cruisers and Oldendorf's battleships which massively outclass Kurita's force. He also had quite a bit of steaming from where he encountered Taffy 3 to the landing area which gives TF 38.1 time to launch a strike.

All of this ignores that considering the aggressive training the IJN instilled there was no way that he was going to ignore carriers under his guns even if he had properly identified them.
 
The outcome of the war had already been decided long before 6 June 1944. It's no coincidence that Claus von Stauffenberg tried to assassinate Hitler just a few weeks later, on 20 July 1944. It had become overwhelmingly clear that the war was lost.

The best course for Germany would have been an armistice. If the Allies would even accept such a thing (which they said they wouldn't - but it could still be worth a try). Failing that, unconditional surrender was the only realistic option.

One might wonder what (if any) terms Germany could have got in the summer of 1944. Probably a better deal than OTL outcome in 1945. At best, they might be allowed to keep their pre-war borders. I believe Stauffenberg and his supporters were hoping for 1914 borders. At least if that was achieved Germany would have gained something from the war (the Danzig corridor) although the price could hardly have been considered worth it, given how many lives had been lost by then.

The Allies however might not have been willing to accept this and may have simply refused to accept anything less than unconditional surrender, in which case Germany may still have faced total destruction as per OTL.

Really, Germany would have done better to make peace a year earlier, in April 1943. It should already have been clear by then that Germany faced destruction if it did not end the war immediately. A separate peace with the Soviets might have resulted in a return to the status quo ante, in which case the Germans keep their original gains in Poland and everything else they gained up to June 1941. That would be a much more favourable deal even than 1914 borders - although Germany would then still have to somehow stop the British and Americans from successfully invading from the west.
This was a non-issue. The agreement between the Big Three, Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin to pursue to the. end the "Unconditional Surrender" policy would lead to a wr to the end for Germany regardless.
 
He can't ignore Taffy 3. If he does Taffy 3 pulls away to the squalls as it tried historically and without the pressure of an attack all three Taffy's have time to rearm their strike aircraft. Then instead of facing desperate delaying attacks Kurita is facing a mass strike of 350 properly armed planes which is probably enough to end his attack by itself. If it isn't there are 60 destroyers guarding the landing area plus 4 cruisers and Oldendorf's battleships which massively outclass Kurita's force. He also had quite a bit of steaming from where he encountered Taffy 3 to the landing area which gives TF 38.1 time to launch a strike.

All of this ignores that considering the aggressive training the IJN instilled there was no way that he was going to ignore carriers under his guns even if he had properly identified them.

At first Kurita sighted masts to the east, then steamed toward them and ordered general attack. But what if he had just ignored them and maintained course for Leyte gulf (they weren't attacking him at first as fleet carriers would've)? TF 3 didn't know at first that IJN ships were nearby, and even when they were identified as enemy, it was initially thought they were the "fleeing remnants" of the force that had just got it in suragao strait. The point is, if Kurita had just stayed on course to the area he was supposed to go, the USN may not have been alarmed or alerted until he had reached Leyte gulf, or just about. If they hadn't been alerted as soon as they were, the force bound for Ulithi would've stayed on course longer and Oldendorf might've been farther down the strait chasing the remnants of the southern force (than in the OTL). That may have caused problems in Leyte...
 
At first Kurita sighted masts to the east, then steamed toward them and ordered general attack. But what if he had just ignored them and maintained course for Leyte gulf (they weren't attacking him at first as fleet carriers would've)? TF 3 didn't know at first that IJN ships were nearby, and even when they were identified as enemy, it was initially thought they were the "fleeing remnants" of the force that had just got it in suragao strait. The point is, if Kurita had just stayed on course to the area he was supposed to go, the USN may not have been alarmed or alerted until he had reached Leyte gulf, or just about. If they hadn't been alerted as soon as they were, the force bound for Ulithi would've stayed on course longer and Oldendorf might've been farther down the strait chasing the remnants of the southern force (than in the OTL). That may have caused problems in Leyte...

He was spotted by the daily scout aircraft being sent out shortly before he spotted Taffy 3. Ensign William C. Brooks was going to spot and correctly identify him regardless of whether he chose to steam past Taffy 3 or attack. At which point Taffy 3 does what it did historically; hauls ass in the other directions screaming for help. If he ignores Taffy 3 the only change is instead of feeling they have to throw every plane into the air RIGHT NOW because the carriers are about to be sunk, Taffy 1, 2, and 3, can take the time to rearm them with anti-ship weaponry (which they did carry) and launch a real strike. That is between 350-450 strike aircraft. Larger in size if not type and training to the strike that turned him back originally and sank Musashi. I don't think you realize how badly damaged his fleet was just by Taffy 3 panicking. All six heavy cruisers were sunk or knocked out by Taffy 3 in OTL which was the worst possible situation for Taffy 3 to be in.
 
The three Taffys, with Taffy 1 and 2 20-30 miles away. And Japan had no significant ability to counter these planes in any way. Sure they aren't the best at attacking ships, but they can still do quite a bit of damage, as they did OTL, and will continue to do if the IJN manages to continue advancing.

At most they would be a nuisance, and in any regard incapable of stopping a force on what would effectively be a suicide mission anyway.

As for the rest, TF 77.1, TF 78, TF 79, and TF 77.3 had a total of 2 CA's, 3 CL's, and 63 Destroyers. This was in addition to the Taffy CVE groups with their own 9 DDs and 14 DEs.

Not too sure about that. The entire Seventh Fleet had 6 BBs, 4 CAs, 5 CLs, 83 DDs, and 25 DEs. Of these 6 battleships, 4 heavy cruisers, 4 light cruisers, and 29 destroyers of TFs 78 and 79 were with Admiral Oldendorf in Surigao Strait, and the aforementioned 9 destroyers and 13 destroyer escorts were with the escort carriers. That leaves only a light cruiser, 45 destroyers, and as many as 12 destroyer escorts throughout the entire Central Philippines. It was unlikely they could have stopped Kurita's ships before they reached the Gulf.

The Taffys did have torpedoes and other ordinance that could and did damage the attacking cruisers. Suzuya was sunk after an air attack set off her long lance torpedos. Chokai was sunk after her torpedoes were set off by a single shot from White Plains which slowed her enough to be sunk by AC from Taffy 2. The initial air attacks were with whatever the planes were armed with at the time but the later attacks were with torpedoes and bombs.

Sporadic resistance? The gallant men of Taffy 3 stopped the Japanese Center force cold and caused them retreat when they thought that DEs were cruisers and CVEs were CVs. That’s far greater resistance than your attempt to minimize it in your counter argument.

A crucial part of why Kurita suffered the losses he did was because of how disorganized his attack was. The Japanese ships were un-coordinated and rushed in pell mell; even then it was a miracle that Taffy 3 was not annihilated. Though I checked and it seems there were indeed a few aerial torpedoes aboard the escort carriers, at no point in the battle, even after the Japanese force withdrew, were they used effectively. During the action it got to the point where there were Avengers making "dummy runs" with just their machine guns.

Additionally Chokai's torpedoes were detonated by a bomb hit, not White Plains.
 
450 aircraft from where? The Seventh Fleet? Discounting Oldendorf's force in Surigao Strait the combined power of TF 77.4 amounted to 18 CVEs (3 per Task Unit - "Taffy"), 9 destroyers, and 13 destroyer escorts. Even historically these forces were scattered and could only offer sporadic resistance; their planes didn't even have any weapons capable of effectively dealing with cruisers or battleships. If the Japanese defeated Taffy 3 there would have been nothing standing between them and Leyte Gulf, until Oldendorf's 6 Battleships, 8 cruisers, and 30-odd destroyers arrived from the south.

By that point it would have been a hollow victory and probably would have cost Admiral Halsey his job.

Halsey would propably be seen as the hero that arrives just in time after turning around when he realizes that the center force is heading for the beaches despite the heroism of Taffy. Oldendors fleet had almost no antiship ammo left IIRC.
 
He was spotted by the daily scout aircraft being sent out shortly before he spotted Taffy 3. Ensign William C. Brooks was going to spot and correctly identify him regardless of whether he chose to steam past Taffy 3 or attack. At which point Taffy 3 does what it did historically; hauls ass in the other directions screaming for help.

From what I've read, Taffy 3 was initially calm even after IJN ships were spotted nearby, growing bigger as they approached.They were thought to be the "fleeing remnants" of the shattered southern force. TF 3 didn't "wake up" and start fleeing until Kurita's ships opened fire.
 
Oldendors fleet had almost no antiship ammo left IIRC.

If that were true, so much for claims he could've handled the center force handily. :) Btw I note that after TF came under attack, Oldendorf urgently requested that Halsey come to its assistance. If Oldendorf's old BBs were really so much better than IJN ships, and still had adequate ammo, why didn't he just race back north and fight center force himself??
 
If that were true, so much for claims he could've handled the center force handily. :) Btw I note that after TF came under attack, Oldendorf urgently requested that Halsey come to its assistance. If Oldendorf's old BBs were really so much better than IJN ships, and still had adequate ammo, why didn't he just race back north and fight center force himself??
Becacue what i can tell from google searching he was ordered to stay put
 
Halsey would propably be seen as the hero that arrives just in time after turning around when he realizes that the center force is heading for the beaches despite the heroism of Taffy. Oldendors fleet had almost no antiship ammo left IIRC.
Which is false. Pennsylvania did not fire a single shot at Suriago straight, Mississippi only fired one salvo of 12 shells, Maryland fired 6 salvos for 48 shells, California and Tennessee fired 63 and 69 shells, or about 6 salvos, and West Virginia fired 93 shells in 16 salvos. The out of AP ammo thing might have come from a screwup West Virginia had where her #4 turret did not have AP immediately available due to shell hoist issues and lack of available supply in #4 turret. Standard capacity for her was 720 shells or 90 salvoes, now she definitely had a majority of HE, but how much I do not know, Maryland had 800 shells or 100 salvoes and the others 1200 shells or 100 salvos if I recall correctly. Could be WeeVee was running out of AP, could be the cruisers, who fired a lot more shells were, but the rest of the BB weren't
 

nbcman

Donor
If that were true, so much for claims he could've handled the center force handily. :) Btw I note that after TF came under attack, Oldendorf urgently requested that Halsey come to its assistance. If Oldendorf's old BBs were really so much better than IJN ships, and still had adequate ammo, why didn't he just race back north and fight center force himself??
Pennsylvania didn’t fire at all. Mississippi fired one main battery salvo 12 rounds. The other 4 BBs fired 48-93 rounds. So there was still fight left in the battlewagons. The claim during the battle that the BBs were critically low on ammo has been debunked in subsequent studies. Not to mention that the BBs would be able to draw the Center Force’s attention from the transports. Plus there are all the DDs and DEs from the 3 Taffys and all their AC. So yes there was ample force available to dispatch Center Force.

EDIT: In fact the BBs had ample AP ammunition (100-300+) remaining per this from NavWeaps and Morrison:
http://www.navweaps.com/index_tech/tech-079.php
 
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Pennsylvania didn’t fire at all. Mississippi fired one main battery salvo 12 rounds. The other 4 BBs fired 48-93 rounds. So there was still fight left in the battlewagons. The claim during the battle that the BBs were critically low on ammo has been debunked in subsequent studies. Not to mention that the BBs would be able to draw the Center Force’s attention from the transports. Plus there are all the DDs and DEs from the 3 Taffys and all their AC. So yes there was ample force available to dispatch Center Force.

I guess we would have at least one Hollywood Movie about that battle with that Epic battle as the survivors of Pearl Harbor rose from the bottom at Pearl to sink Yamato.
 
At most they would be a nuisance, and in any regard incapable of stopping a force on what would effectively be a suicide mission anyway.
The actual damage inflicted shows that again your dismissal is completely baseless.

Not too sure about that.

Doesn’t matter how sure you are. They were there regardless of your opinion on their existence.

If that were true, so much for claims he could've handled the center force handily. :) Btw I note that after TF came under attack, Oldendorf urgently requested that Halsey come to its assistance. If Oldendorf's old BBs were really so much better than IJN ships, and still had adequate ammo, why didn't he just race back north and fight center force himself??
Because unlike in a video game perfect information doesn’t exist in real life. Oldendorf wouldn’t have realized how dismal Japanese fire had gotten for instance, nor precisely the makeup of the fleet.
 
At most they would be a nuisance, and in any regard incapable of stopping a force on what would effectively be a suicide mission anyway.



Not too sure about that. The entire Seventh Fleet had 6 BBs, 4 CAs, 5 CLs, 83 DDs, and 25 DEs. Of these 6 battleships, 4 heavy cruisers, 4 light cruisers, and 29 destroyers of TFs 78 and 79 were with Admiral Oldendorf in Surigao Strait, and the aforementioned 9 destroyers and 13 destroyer escorts were with the escort carriers. That leaves only a light cruiser, 45 destroyers, and as many as 12 destroyer escorts throughout the entire Central Philippines. It was unlikely they could have stopped Kurita's ships before they reached the Gulf.



A crucial part of why Kurita suffered the losses he did was because of how disorganized his attack was. The Japanese ships were un-coordinated and rushed in pell mell; even then it was a miracle that Taffy 3 was not annihilated. Though I checked and it seems there were indeed a few aerial torpedoes aboard the escort carriers, at no point in the battle, even after the Japanese force withdrew, were they used effectively. During the action it got to the point where there were Avengers making "dummy runs" with just their machine guns.

Additionally Chokai's torpedoes were detonated by a bomb hit, not White Plains.
Citation on Chokai?

Also:
upload_2018-12-16_7-43-40.jpeg
As you can see, Surigao Straight wasn’t nearly as far away from the Samar action as you make it out to be. At worse, since he was in Leyte Gulf already, he could’ve easily barred Kurita’s path with his entire force.

Re: antiship ammo

The bigger problem for Oldendorf wasn’t AP ammo on his battleships, it was torpedoes on his destroyers. Torpedoes, and fuel.
 

nbcman

Donor
How? They didn't stop Kurita, even though he charged in pell-mell. He ordered a retreat, and could have sunk every ship there.



You saying it doesn't make it so. The numbers, as I showed, don't add up.



Chokai - Haguro's after action report credits the loss to Avengers (https://www.jacar.archives.go.jp/aj...00&IS_KIND=detail&IS_STYLE=eng&IS_TAG_S1=InD&). IIRC it was only recently that Robert Lundgren's "Tin Can Sailors" gave White Plains the kill.
Combined Fleet has the sympathetic torpedo explosions occurring 6 minutes before the Avenger bombing attack:
http://www.combinedfleet.com/chokai_t.htm
About Oldendorf: It was not so simple. Admiral Kinkaid was still concerned about the threat posed by the Japanese Shima Force, which even after Nishimura's annihilation could have penetrated Leyte Gulf if he ordered TFs 78 and 79 northward. With that in mind, he deliberately chose to hold off on engaging Kurita in order to maintain his southern flank. This threat may have been exaggerated in hindsight given that Shima turned around on his own, but only a short time earlier Kurita had previously done exactly the same thing only to double back.

On land, both Walter Krueger (Sixth Army commander) and MacArthur were extremely concerned with the possibility of the Center Force breaking through, to the point where the latter's "Reports" concluded:

"Should the enemy gain entrance to Leyte Gulf , his powerful naval guns could pulverize any of the eggshell transports still present in the area and destroy vitally needed supplies on the beachhead. The thousands of U.S. troops already ashore would be isolated and pinned down helplessly between enemy fire from ground and sea. Then, too, the schedule for supply reinforcement would not only be completely upset, but the success of the invasion itself would be placed in grave jeopardy. The battleships and cruisers of the Seventh Fleet were over 100 miles away in Surigao Strait with their stock of armor-piercing ammunition virtually exhausted by the pre-landing shore bombardment and the decisive early morning battle with the Japanese Southern Force. Admiral Halsey's Third Fleet was almost 300 miles away still in hot pursuit of the Northern Force and could not possibly return in time to halt the progress of Admiral Kurita."​
As stated upthread, the claims that AP ammo was exhausted was disproven. Every BB had enough main gun AP ammo for at least 10 salvos. Dugout Doug wouldn’t know what the status of ammo in the magazines of 7th Fleet’s ships any more than Kurita would have. His statements on the Leyte Gulf battles are not worth the ink he used to write them.
 
Combined Fleet has the sympathetic torpedo explosions occurring 6 minutes before the Avenger bombing attack:
http://www.combinedfleet.com/chokai_t.htm

It varies on the source. As I said, the Japanese side attributed the explosion and subsequent sinking to TBMs

As stated upthread, the claims that AP ammo was exhausted was disproven. Every BB had enough main gun AP ammo for at least 10 salvos. Dugout Doug wouldn’t know what the status of ammo in the magazines of 7th Fleet’s ships any more than Kurita would have. His statements on the Leyte Gulf battles are not worth the ink he used to write them.

Why would MacArthur, the commanding general in SWPA, not have accurate information on the state of Oldendorf's battle line after the battle was over?
 
-- Restoring accidentally deleted post --

The actual damage inflicted shows that again your dismissal is completely baseless.
How? They didn't stop Kurita, even though he charged in pell-mell. He ordered a retreat, and could have sunk every ship there.

Doesn’t matter how sure you are. They were there regardless of your opinion on their existence.
You saying it doesn't make it so. The numbers, as I showed, don't add up.

Citation on Chokai?

Also:
As you can see, Surigao Straight wasn’t nearly as far away from the Samar action as you make it out to be. At worse, since he was in Leyte Gulf already, he could’ve easily barred Kurita’s path with his entire force.

Chokai - Haguro's after action report credits the loss to Avengers (https://www.jacar.archives.go.jp/aj...00&IS_KIND=detail&IS_STYLE=eng&IS_TAG_S1=InD&). IIRC it was only recently that James Hornfischer's "Tin Can Sailors" gave White Plains the kill.

About Oldendorf: It was not so simple. Admiral Kinkaid was still concerned about the threat posed by the Japanese Shima Force, which even after Nishimura's annihilation could have penetrated Leyte Gulf if he ordered TFs 78 and 79 northward. With that in mind, he deliberately chose to hold off on engaging Kurita in order to maintain his southern flank. This threat may have been exaggerated in hindsight given that Shima turned around on his own, but only a short time earlier Kurita had previously done exactly the same thing only to double back.

On land, both Walter Krueger (Sixth Army commander) and MacArthur were extremely concerned with the possibility of the Center Force breaking through, to the point where the latter's "Reports" concluded:

"Should the enemy gain entrance to Leyte Gulf , his powerful naval guns could pulverize any of the eggshell transports still present in the area and destroy vitally needed supplies on the beachhead. The thousands of U.S. troops already ashore would be isolated and pinned down helplessly between enemy fire from ground and sea. Then, too, the schedule for supply reinforcement would not only be completely upset, but the success of the invasion itself would be placed in grave jeopardy. The battleships and cruisers of the Seventh Fleet were over 100 miles away in Surigao Strait with their stock of armor-piercing ammunition virtually exhausted by the pre-landing shore bombardment and the decisive early morning battle with the Japanese Southern Force. Admiral Halsey's Third Fleet was almost 300 miles away still in hot pursuit of the Northern Force and could not possibly return in time to halt the progress of Admiral Kurita."
 
I am going for Japan being worse off for the simple reason of limited industry. At the end of the day, the largely intact IJA was a WWI infantry force lacking the training, equipment and transport to fight WWII level campaigns. As a result, they were only effective against other WWI infantry forces like China.

Meanwhile, the IJN lost the “quality / quantity” race way before the Germans did. By 1944 the number of trained pilots (crucial in carrier warfare) had hit rock bottom and next generation aircraft could only be produced in very small numbers. The US was fighting battles they derisively referred to as “Turkey Shoots”.

In contrast, their distant ally / co-belligerent was able to produce comparative quality aircraft as their opponents (though pilot training was declining as well). Likewise, on the ground, German industry could pair very high quality ground equipment with enough highly trained WWII campaign capable troops to go down fighting.

In short, 1944-45 in the Pacific were large scale “mop ups” against an immobilized enemy lacking the skills and technology needed to offer effective resistance. In contrast, 1944-45 Europe was the end stages of a war against an enemy that was still capable of going down fighting- and still capable of nasty surprises when the numbers were anywhere near equal (Arnhem, the Bulge, Anzio, Hungary).
 
How? They didn't stop Kurita, even though he charged in pell-mell. He ordered a retreat, and could have sunk every ship there.
Right they didn’t stop him. That’s why the Americans were the ones who retreated.

You saying it doesn't make it so. The numbers, as I showed, don't add up.

I provided the groups and total numbers.
 

nbcman

Donor
It varies on the source. As I said, the Japanese side attributed the explosion and subsequent sinking to TBMs
Maybe so, but the timeline doesn't fit the story. Would you want to admit your CA got beat by a CVE instead of claiming that an air attack was the culprit?
Why would MacArthur, the commanding general in SWPA, not have accurate information on the state of Oldendorf's battle line after the battle was over?
The accurate information is noted in post#52 which does not indicate a lack of ammunition for the BBs. Maybe because MacArthur didn’t have the correct info or couldn’t be bothered to correct himself. If you look at what Dougie said, it made little sense as AP ammo isn't used in shore bombardments. If he can't bother to be accurate on what ammo is used for shore bombardments, how would an objective reader view his accuracy on his story on the status of ammo on the 7th Fleet BBs?

their stock of armor-piercing ammunition virtually exhausted by the pre-landing shore bombardment and the decisive early morning battle with the Japanese Southern Force
 
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