Germany or Japan: Which military was worse off in 1944?

IOTL they did. Plus there was the 7th Fleet and more waiting in the wings if Kurita hadn’t chickened out.

Kurita turned around because he didn't know what he was up against. With a clearer intelligence picture his forces were more than sufficient to brush aside the Taffies and steam into Leyte Gulf. If his entire force got destroyed by Oldendorf or Halsey it would have been worth the sacrifice.
 

nbcman

Donor
Kurita turned around because he didn't know what he was up against. With a clearer intelligence picture his forces were more than sufficient to brush aside the Taffies and steam into Leyte Gulf. If his entire force got destroyed by Oldendorf or Halsey it would have been worth the sacrifice.
He went haring around chasing phantom other capital ships after retreating from the CVEs until he ultimately withdrew. He didn’t want to attack the transports; he wanted to fight BBs or CVs. He would have been better off as the commander of the southern groups where he would have gotten his wish. Kurita failed off Samar, period.
 
He went haring around chasing phantom other capital ships after retreating from the CVEs until he ultimately withdrew. He didn’t want to attack the transports; he wanted to fight BBs or CVs. He would have been better off as the commander of the southern groups where he would have gotten his wish. Kurita failed off Samar, period.

That's not the argument. The point is that the Japanese Center force, properly led, was strong enough to wipe out the 7th Fleet's CVEs and cause havoc in Leyte Gulf. Even if it was caught and destroyed for it, compared to the role those ships would have historically served later in the war such an endeavor would have been worthwhile.

Rather than something that could be blithely dismissed as hopelessly outmatched by 1944, the Japanese surface fleet was more than capable of inflicting a serious defeat on US forces should the circumstances have permitted.
 
Yes he could have. DEs and Jeep carriers can't stop battleships

And yet he was stopped. Leyte Gulf wasn't one action, it was a series of them. And Japan got crushed in. Every. Single. One.

Even IF they had crushed the Americans at Samar they would have run into 450 aircraft swarming them and over 60 destroyers. He would have had to defeat these forces in under four hours before the 3rd fleet hits them. It can't be done.

Japan had no more hope of winning any stage of Leyte Gulf than they did of winning the war.
 
And yet he was stopped. Leyte Gulf wasn't one action, it was a series of them. And Japan got crushed in. Every. Single. One.

Even IF they had crushed the Americans at Samar they would have run into 450 aircraft swarming them and over 60 destroyers. He would have had to defeat these forces in under four hours before the 3rd fleet hits them. It can't be done.

Japan had no more hope of winning any stage of Leyte Gulf than they did of winning the war.

450 aircraft from where? The Seventh Fleet? Discounting Oldendorf's force in Surigao Strait the combined power of TF 77.4 amounted to 18 CVEs (3 per Task Unit - "Taffy"), 9 destroyers, and 13 destroyer escorts. Even historically these forces were scattered and could only offer sporadic resistance; their planes didn't even have any weapons capable of effectively dealing with cruisers or battleships. If the Japanese defeated Taffy 3 there would have been nothing standing between them and Leyte Gulf, until Oldendorf's 6 Battleships, 8 cruisers, and 30-odd destroyers arrived from the south.

By that point it would have been a hollow victory and probably would have cost Admiral Halsey his job.
 
450 aircraft from where?
The three Taffys, with Taffy 1 and 2 20-30 miles away. And Japan had no significant ability to counter these planes in any way. Sure they aren't the best at attacking ships, but they can still do quite a bit of damage, as they did OTL, and will continue to do if the IJN manages to continue advancing.

As for the rest, TF 77.1, TF 78, TF 79, and TF 77.3 had a total of 2 CA's, 3 CL's, and 63 Destroyers. This was in addition to the Taffy CVE groups with their own 9 DDs and 14 DEs.
 

elkarlo

Banned
The outcome of the war had already been decided long before 6 June 1944. It's no coincidence that Claus von Stauffenberg tried to assassinate Hitler just a few weeks later, on 20 July 1944. It had become overwhelmingly clear that the war was lost.

The best course for Germany would have been an armistice. If the Allies would even accept such a thing (which they said they wouldn't - but it could still be worth a try). Failing that, unconditional surrender was the only realistic option.

One might wonder what (if any) terms Germany could have got in the summer of 1944. Probably a better deal than OTL outcome in 1945. At best, they might be allowed to keep their pre-war borders. I believe Stauffenberg and his supporters were hoping for 1914 borders. At least if that was achieved Germany would have gained something from the war (the Danzig corridor) although the price could hardly have been considered worth it, given how many lives had been lost by then.

The Allies however might not have been willing to accept this and may have simply refused to accept anything less than unconditional surrender, in which case Germany may still have faced total destruction as per OTL.

Really, Germany would have done better to make peace a year earlier, in April 1943. It should already have been clear by then that Germany faced destruction if it did not end the war immediately. A separate peace with the Soviets might have resulted in a return to the status quo ante, in which case the Germans keep their original gains in Poland and everything else they gained up to June 1941. That would be a much more favourable deal even than 1914 borders - although Germany would then still have to somehow stop the British and Americans from successfully invading from the west.
That's make a good time line . Stalin basically gives Hitler two years to wear himself and the Wallies out. Wonder if the Wallies would even bother invading Europe without the Soviets tying down a hundred divisions
 
Wonder if the Wallies would even bother invading Europe without the Soviets tying down a hundred divisions
Though inevitably someone’s gonna chime in with the classic “Magic nuclear armed B-36s defeat Germany overnight” it took the WAllies 2 and a half years of preparation, strategic bombing, logistics buildup and experience in North Africa/Italy to pull off the Normandy landings against a Wehrmacht that had been bled dry in the East for 3 years and was still fighting on multiple fronts.

Imagine how much more difficult, how costlier and how longer it would have been (assuming an AANW style stalemate didn’t form) for the WAllies to launch a successful invasion of Nazi Europe if there was no ongoing war with the USSR.
 
losing the assault lift at leyte gulf would have simply caused the allies to do the southern Philippines campaign first and then free Luzon in april instead of hitting iwo jima.
 

Marc

Donor
And what pray tell does Allies do about the Holocaust? Germany really did commit massive crimes against humanity. It is going to very hard to bury Auschwitz...
 
The outcome of the war had already been decided long before 6 June 1944. It's no coincidence that Claus von Stauffenberg tried to assassinate Hitler just a few weeks later, on 20 July 1944. It had become overwhelmingly clear that the war was lost.

The best course for Germany would have been an armistice. If the Allies would even accept such a thing (which they said they wouldn't - but it could still be worth a try). Failing that, unconditional surrender was the only realistic option.

One might wonder what (if any) terms Germany could have got in the summer of 1944. Probably a better deal than OTL outcome in 1945. At best, they might be allowed to keep their pre-war borders. I believe Stauffenberg and his supporters were hoping for 1914 borders. At least if that was achieved Germany would have gained something from the war (the Danzig corridor) although the price could hardly have been considered worth it, given how many lives had been lost by then.

The Allies however might not have been willing to accept this and may have simply refused to accept anything less than unconditional surrender, in which case Germany may still have faced total destruction as per OTL.

Really, Germany would have done better to make peace a year earlier, in April 1943. It should already have been clear by then that Germany faced destruction if it did not end the war immediately. A separate peace with the Soviets might have resulted in a return to the status quo ante, in which case the Germans keep their original gains in Poland and everything else they gained up to June 1941. That would be a much more favourable deal even than 1914 borders - although Germany would then still have to somehow stop the British and Americans from successfully invading from the west.

In a 43 seperate peace timeline...how much longer does the war go?

Say it happens right before Kursk...pre 41 borders, all living POWs returned as well as all trading.

How does the Western front go? Are we just back into another phony war? Do the Allies try and invade right away before reinforcments arrive?

Do both sides just shake their fists at each other?

How does tgis effect the holocaust? More deaths? Less?
 
In a 43 seperate peace timeline...how much longer does the war go?

Say it happens right before Kursk...pre 41 borders, all living POWs returned as well as all trading.

How does the Western front go? Are we just back into another phony war? Do the Allies try and invade right away before reinforcments arrive?

Do both sides just shake their fists at each other?

How does tgis effect the holocaust? More deaths? Less?

Well, on 13 May 1943 the Axis forces in North Africa were forced to surrender. 275,000 Axis soldiers became prisoners of war, held by British and Americans.

By comparison, 91,000 German troops were captured in the surrender at Stalingrad.

I think the western Allies would invade Italy next, as they did OTL in July and August (Sicily) and September (the mainland). By early October 1943 they had taken the southern half of the country and Italy had surrendered.

If Germany isn't at war with the Soviet Union after May 1943, the Allies will find much tougher resistance in Italy. The entire German army is freed up to push the Allies back out of Italy. It's difficult to see how the Allies could win, although perhaps a period of intense air battles between the Luftwaffe and the Allies air forces might ultimately decide the outcome.

If the Allied invasion of Italy fails, the war will become a stalemate with no land contact between the two sides. The Germans don't have any chance of achieving naval superiority, so there is no way they can get at the Allies.

Presumably the air war would become the main theatre of struggle, with aircraft from both sides trying to attack the other and gain air supremacy.

Can the Allies win? It seems doubtful. D-Day would likely not work if the whole German army was available to resist. And even achieving air supremacy might not be possible if the Luftwaffe can focus its entire resources on the west.

The war might become bogged down. Time is perhaps on the Allies' side, because they control access to the sea, while Germany is blockaded. On the other hand, Germany controls a large area and may be able to sustain itself for some time.

If the Allies try to press ahead with D-Day anyway there are 3 possibilities:

1. The Allies fail. The invasion is a disaster and the western forces are thrown back into the sea with heavy losses.

2. The Allies succeed in liberating part of France but progress stalls and a new frontline is established, with neither side able to decisively defeat the other

3. The Allies win somehow and push on to Germany, eventually winning the war

Of these three, I think the first and second options are most likely. Germany holds a major advantage as the defending force and it's hard to see how the Allies could establish the necessary logistics and manpower in time to resist the German counter attacks.

A naval invasion is really hard and even OTL it was far from easy and there were serious problems. Add in 80% of the German army not being in the east and defeat seems hard to avoid.
 
I've got a scenario which could warrant it's own thread but I will ask here for now.

Say D-Day fails but 20 July succeeds and a piece is signed - what would happen in the Pacific? Nimitz wanted to invade Taiwan instead of fighting at Leyte Gulf, but he did not have the men. With a peace in the west he could have his 12 divisions. How would this affect the war? I am not an expert on the Pacific Theatre in any way, shape or form.
 

nbcman

Donor
450 aircraft from where? The Seventh Fleet? Discounting Oldendorf's force in Surigao Strait the combined power of TF 77.4 amounted to 18 CVEs (3 per Task Unit - "Taffy"), 9 destroyers, and 13 destroyer escorts. Even historically these forces were scattered and could only offer sporadic resistance; their planes didn't even have any weapons capable of effectively dealing with cruisers or battleships. If the Japanese defeated Taffy 3 there would have been nothing standing between them and Leyte Gulf, until Oldendorf's 6 Battleships, 8 cruisers, and 30-odd destroyers arrived from the south.

By that point it would have been a hollow victory and probably would have cost Admiral Halsey his job.
The Taffys did have torpedoes and other ordinance that could and did damage the attacking cruisers. Suzuya was sunk after an air attack set off her long lance torpedos. Chokai was sunk after her torpedoes were set off by a single shot from White Plains which slowed her enough to be sunk by AC from Taffy 2. The initial air attacks were with whatever the planes were armed with at the time but the later attacks were with torpedoes and bombs.

Sporadic resistance? The gallant men of Taffy 3 stopped the Japanese Center force cold and caused them retreat when they thought that DEs were cruisers and CVEs were CVs. That’s far greater resistance than your attempt to minimize it in your counter argument.
 
Kurita turned around because he didn't know what he was up against. With a clearer intelligence picture his forces were more than sufficient to brush aside the Taffies and steam into Leyte Gulf.

Kurita should've just ignored Taffy 3. It was foolish to think it was a group of fleet carriers. If that had been the case, i.e. if it had been Halsey's force, which had just plastered his center force the day before, the beating would've resumed at daybreak on the 25th. Kurita's mission was to go to Leyte gulf.

If his entire force got destroyed by Oldendorf or Halsey it would have been worth the sacrifice.

Right, that was their last chance to accomplish much. Btw had Kurita avoided the losses he incurred en route to san Bernadino strait--which I think would've been possible-- I'm not at all sure Oldendorf could've destroyed him, even if he hadn't gone down surigao strait.
 

nbcman

Donor
Kurita should've just ignored Taffy 3. It was foolish to think it was a group of fleet carriers. If that had been the case, i.e. if it had been Halsey's force, which had just plastered his center force the day before, the beating would've resumed at daybreak on the 25th. Kurita's mission was to go to Leyte gulf.



Right, that was their last chance to accomplish much. Btw had Kurita avoided the losses he incurred en route to san Bernadino strait--which I think would've been possible-- I'm not at all sure Oldendorf could've destroyed him, even if he hadn't gone down surigao strait.
Utter nonsense. Compare the performance of advanced radar directed fire control of all US ships to the woeful fire control of the Japanese ships. The only concern would be that the US ships expended some of their ammo during the Surigao Strait. But there’s enough firepower with the 7th Fleet plus air attacks to dispatch Center Force handily.
 
It should also be remembered that one of Halsey’s task groups, McCain’s 38.1, had been diverted to Ulithi and had turned around when the Samar mess began. It was just getting into strike rage when Kurita began to withdraw, and that’s another 300+ aircraft that lack the training and payload limitations of the Taffy aircraft should Kurita press on into the Gulf.
 

elkarlo

Banned
Though inevitably someone’s gonna chime in with the classic “Magic nuclear armed B-36s defeat Germany overnight” it took the WAllies 2 and a half years of preparation, strategic bombing, logistics buildup and experience in North Africa/Italy to pull off the Normandy landings against a Wehrmacht that had been bled dry in the East for 3 years and was still fighting on multiple fronts.

Imagine how much more difficult, how costlier and how longer it would have been (assuming an AANW style stalemate didn’t form) for the WAllies to launch a successful invasion of Nazi Europe if there was no ongoing war with the USSR.
Yeah the B-36 missed several years. It's a massive hole and hand waving that away is silly.
The Wallies might be able to grab Crete, Sicily and Sardinia, but nothing on the mainland. We had enough trouble with Italy iotl. As you said being bled out on the east. Stop that, and even with tons of divs massed on the east, it frees up a mobile reserve as well as replacements
It'd be very hard to land and get anything done on the mainland with a German unoccupied with the Soviets
 
It should also be remembered that one of Halsey’s task groups, McCain’s 38.1, had been diverted to Ulithi and had turned around when the Samar mess began. It was just getting into strike rage when Kurita began to withdraw, and that’s another 300+ aircraft that lack the training and payload limitations of the Taffy aircraft should Kurita press on into the Gulf.

What if Kurita ignored TF 3 and went straight to Leyte gulf? The carriers probably wouldn't have been ordered back until he reached it (there was confusion about the identity or intent of the center force until it actually began attacking) and then it could've been too late.
 
Top