With a POD before 1899, could it be possible for Germany to never unify?
How could this happen?
How could this happen?
Germany never unifies (pre-1900)
- Thread starter sampleswift
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The Hard date is 1870, maybe early, even without franco-prussian war, the south germans states were considering to join NGC germany, specially Bavaria, as was short of cash for their defensive obligations and even if zollverein was still applied, they fear might get out of it.
Maybe a different Vienna created different spehres? so we got bigger german based states but not a single germany? with prussian being more polish, austria more balkan and so on.
Could an alternate POD be when Prussia is rising, the other European powers see this as a threat and take countermeasures?
Russia: His best friend and UK feared a too powerful russia, UK: didn't care,even liked the idea of Germany before UK started to left behind by russia and germany, Austria
efeated, Franceefeated, Ottomans: Don't care, All others powers don't care, maybe if Prussia remained a teuton-polish based state(like was post third partition) maybe germany might have not unify.
There are infinite ways to go about this, depending on how far back you want to go. A couple of options, with the further down you go being the further back you go.
- Like other people have suggested, butterflying the Franco-Prussian or Austro-Prussian Wars to either never happen or have the Prussians lose.
- Butterfly Otto von Bismarck away from any position of power / authority / influence and have it so that no-one as competent as him arises.
- Have the Napoleonic Wars never happen, killing German nationalism in its cradle or at least delaying it by quite a while, while the HRE still exists as a bullwark against expansionist powers. If you don't consider the Confederation of the Rhine a United Germany, a Napoleon victory scenario might also do the trick.
- No Miracle of the House of Brandenburg. Prussia would be destroyed or at least reduced to a second-rate power, Austria probably wouldn't try to over-extend itself to try to unify all of Germany, and there would be no other state strong enough to create that vacuum.
1848 comes around, no Prussian power exists to stop the revolution....and you have Kleindeutschland.
Dude..with a 1700 POD, French revolution, napoleon,etc as we knew it is gone forever, would not be a 1848 at all anyway1848 comes around, no Prussian power exists to stop the revolution....and you have Kleindeutschland.
I know that. I wasnt entirely serious here. Point being. If nationalism someday comes into existance it will be a driving force in Germany, too. Just like it was everywhere else. So a 1848 scenario might still erupt.
Yeah but with the POD given and butterflies, those things might be butterfly away, see the prussia example, they considered a german culture, yet the prussia nation first, not the german one
But nationalism may not someday come to existence, and if there is anyone who's going to stop it, it's going to be Austria, and if not Austria, it'll be France, and if not France, it'll be Russia, and if not Russia, it'll be Britain.
Nationalism will always be a force as long as people are fed up with their absoulte monarchs and kill them. You need a new model for a state which doesnt come from a god given monarch. And I find it pretty funny that you bring up exatly these states which all needed to work together to bring their 1848 down & it hardly worked. Austria was busy in Austria & Hungary & later in south Germany. Russia was busy in Poland and Hungary. France was busy with itself. So who is gonna do the heavy lifting in the rest of Germany if Prussia is just Brandenburg & hardly more powerful than Saxony in this scenario. Britain? Give me a break!
Napoleon and his conquest of Germany was the driving force between German nationalism as it stands. And given 100 years of butterflies, many of the conflicts you mentioned may not be going on or are fundamentally different.
This is true for OTL. In the scenario you envisioned where nationalism still becomes a force and a 1848 event happens the revolution might succeed because the Prussian army is not there to suppress it.
I'm assuming that we're talking about the no Miracle of the House of Brandenburg scenario.
If so, the fact that German nationalism becomes a force is thrown into doubt. However, a no-House of Brandenburg scenario would mean a more powerful Austria and a more powerful Russia, and depending on how the rest of the Seven Years' War goes in the scenario, France may be a lot more well-off, which means that the Ancien Regime wouldn't be crippled by war-debt, and that would make the French Revolution a lot less likely (and since the French Revolution / Napoleon were the main catalysts for German nationalism, again, this may be thrown into doubt). A more stable, monarchical France would have nothing to lose from intervening in a potential 1848-type scenario, and an Austria that hasn't been humiliated by either Frederick the Great or Napoleon would also want to keep the HRE together as well as its general influence over the German states.
The existence of the HRE during such an 1848-type rebellion may give more cohesion to the minor German kingdoms and principalities during this time of crisis which means that perhaps the intervention of a greater power may not even be needed.
However, that does bring in the fact that a POD in 1759 would bring in butterflies, many of which we could not even perceive, and I would be reasonably certain that German nationalism, at least as we know it, would be butterflied away by the event.
Prussia doesn't take the Bismarck path and remains the second most powerful member of the German confederation. Unification was never inevitable for Germany and Prussia had a large amount of good fortune OTL.
There was a rumor Austria was to try it again, and even Willy I, like his brother, wanted to see a neo HRE brought back..again that is a urban legend and the Saxons meetings could have failed too...so yeah nothing is set in stone.
Nationalism may come, but that does ot mean it will be German nationalism. Both the Dutch as well as the Swiss managed to form a seperate identity long before German nationalism arose. I think itis very possible for a Prussian, Austrian, Bavarian, Saxon identity to arise. Certainly with a POD before the French revolution. It was the French revolution and the Napoleonic wars that caused the German identity to arise over the other more local identities.
There are a couple of problems though. For example all the small more or less independent parts of Germany. I doubt something like Reuss-Greiz could form its own identity and certainly not a whole bunch of them.
Another problem is the fact that many principalities had unconnected land all over the HRE. For example Prussia also controlled East Frisia and Cleves on the other side of the HRE bordering the Netherlands. That makes it harder to form an identity.
The last problem is the churchlands. Maybe it is my own dislike of theocracies, but I realy doubt people especialy when democracy comes around would like to live in a country ruled by a Prince Bishop or Abbot.
In the end to replace German Nationalism with more localised nationalism I think that basicly some big German lands, like Austria, Prussia, Bavaria, etc. would formseperate nations, while a bunch of smaller principalities would form a local national identity over several indpendent prinicipalities. For exmaple a Rhineland identity (with a better name than Rhineland, I guess).
There are a couple of problems though. For example all the small more or less independent parts of Germany. I doubt something like Reuss-Greiz could form its own identity and certainly not a whole bunch of them.
Another problem is the fact that many principalities had unconnected land all over the HRE. For example Prussia also controlled East Frisia and Cleves on the other side of the HRE bordering the Netherlands. That makes it harder to form an identity.
The last problem is the churchlands. Maybe it is my own dislike of theocracies, but I realy doubt people especialy when democracy comes around would like to live in a country ruled by a Prince Bishop or Abbot.
In the end to replace German Nationalism with more localised nationalism I think that basicly some big German lands, like Austria, Prussia, Bavaria, etc. would formseperate nations, while a bunch of smaller principalities would form a local national identity over several indpendent prinicipalities. For exmaple a Rhineland identity (with a better name than Rhineland, I guess).
Well I admit there are a lot of ifs & pods between 1759 and whenever nationalism comes up. So I concede this point of yours. Specially the continuing existence of the HRE is in intresting one.