Germany mistakes

That import figure for food / calories is a snapshot at the start of WW2 prior to rationing being implemented and not what occurred during the entire war. By 1945, the UK was producing 75% of the food they consumed.

Germany was 'self-sufficient' in food up until about 1942 for three reasons: 1) extensive plundering / requisition of food in occupied countries, 2) extensive use of poorly fed POWs to boost domestic food production & 3) Trade with the Soviets which came to a crashing halt on 22 Jun 1941.

The trend would continue downward as Germany was cut off from fertilizer, animal fodder, plus livestock were not being replaced as they were slaughtered due to lack of fodder.

With the Soviets still at peace from Germany, Germany could try to increase production by:
1) Diverting nitrogen production to fertilizer (possible without as many shells needed for the eastern front)
2) Diverting fuel and machinery to agricultural production (possible without vehicles driving all over the eastern front and not having to produce as many replacement tanks)
3) Diverting people to agricultural production, especially talented and motivated people (possible if they are not dying on the eastern front).
4) Expanding trade with other countries (really only possible with Turkey, across the Trans-Siberian with Japan, with French North Africa (a source of Fertilizer) or via 3rd party buyers, all of which is more possible with to some extent the Soviets neutral.

This seems possible, if Germany adopts a largely defensive stance against Britain (with the Soviets still at peace), to keep food production adequate, to keep a large armored force and air force on the defense in France (where they don't use fuel if they are not driving or flying around so much). Hope Britain tires of this low scale war and makes an acceptable peace.

This all breaks down if the USA comes in the war of course, but Germany controls that, all they have to do is encourage the French to resist the Japanese incursion into Indo-China, and the path to USA entry in the war is diverted.
 
my view they could never barter for enough Romanian oil, the pre-war planning (not just Nazi planning, the entire inter-war period) calculated on the oil, with no concern as to payment.

under any M-R Pact Germany loses the Polish oil region? my speculation they could have probably struck a deal over Poland and Romania as the two were in a defensive pact, with plans to withdraw to Romanian Bridgehead? in a three-way invasion (including Hungary), they would have no choice but being reduced to borders of WWI Kingdom?

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... if Germany adopts a largely defensive stance against Britain (with the Soviets still at peace), to keep food production adequate, to keep a large armored force and air force on the defense in France (where they don't use fuel if they are not driving or flying around so much). Hope Britain tires of this low scale war and makes an acceptable peace.

This all breaks down if the USA comes in the war of course, but Germany controls that, all they have to do is encourage the French to resist the Japanese incursion into Indo-China, and the path to USA entry in the war is diverted.

to my view the German-Soviet cooperation could have continued but the economics of the historic pact could not, since Germany dealt away their little trading bloc of Poland, Finland, and the Baltics (mistake) leaving them too dependent on the USSR.

if they had captured or puppetized Romania, the trade with the Soviets could have centered around grain and other scarce materials. without the foray East, their oil corps might have developed the Austrian oilfields faster as well.

think peace with Vichy France very possible but only a Phoney Peace with UK?
 
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