Germany made "a pastoral state"

So obviously ATL Germany is, and has been since very shortly after World War II, an industrial powerhouse.

How can this be made not the case? Many in the Allied leadership, both Western and Soviet, had the idea that Germany should never be allowed to rise again - but there was not much follow-through, at least on the Western end.

POD any time after January 1, 1942.
 
This would have encouraged revanchism a lot more than Versailles, not that matters, since Germany won't be a condition to challenge it
 

Deleted member 1487

Germany uses chemical weapons, the allies do too, plus maybe anthrax; so many people are killed that Germany is left fallow and what is left of value is taken by the victors. Grim scenario all around.
 

Deleted member 1487

Oh, it works until Germany becomes OTL's Vietnam. To the power of ten.
You need outside support to be a guerrilla war and Vietnam was mostly fought by the standing army of North Vietnam, not guerrillas. The Allies would just commit massacres and withhold food, just like in OTL 1945 that quashed any thought at resistance.
 
Oh, it works until Germany becomes OTL's Vietnam. To the power of ten.

Not really. Vietnam succeeded in making the US quit for a number of reasons. In particular these were the US unwillingness to attack civilian targets in the North (something which, to be clear I don't disagree with), a major backer (China and the USSR), and a homefront which disagreed with the war and saw it as pointless.

Those don't apply to post-WWII Germany.

That said, I just don't see this happening, even if there are major chemical attacks. The Allies would most definitely retaliate on a largescale, but IMO not enough to where Germany is thoroughly depopulated. This idea OTL was barely even considered, especially after the level of deaths necessary to bring it about were brought into consideration.
 
So obviously ATL Germany is, and has been since very shortly after World War II, an industrial powerhouse.

How can this be made not the case? Many in the Allied leadership, both Western and Soviet, had the idea that Germany should never be allowed to rise again - but there was not much follow-through, at least on the Western end.

POD any time after January 1, 1942.
Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought that there was an attempt to unindustralize Germany (one that didn't make it into US media), and that this was only canceled later, and never fully implemented?
 
Germany didn't become an industrial powerhouse due to fairy tales and unicorns, it's going to be virtually impossible to ignore Germany's coal and iron resources in the medium term. The victors can take away the tools in the factories but they won't rip up railways, autobahns, canals and other infrastructure and they can't wish away coal and iron mines. In a decade or so the political will to keep Germany a pastoral state will relax and the coal and iron mines will restart production and Germany will be industrial once more.
 
Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought that there was an attempt to unindustralize Germany (one that didn't make it into US media), and that this was only canceled later, and never fully implemented?

You're probably talking about the Morgenthrau Plan, which I referenced in my post. The thing is, the plan was never seriously considered, and when the humanitarian effects (ie the necessary depopulation of Germany to make it work) were brought up it was rejected out of hand. The Allies weren't monsters after all.
 
You're probably talking about the Morgenthrau Plan, which I referenced in my post. The thing is, the plan was never seriously considered, and when the humanitarian effects (ie the necessary depopulation of Germany to make it work) were brought up it was rejected out of hand. The Allies weren't monsters after all.

IIRC Hoover was sent into Germany shortly after the war. He wrote a memorandum to Truman.

Going from memory here (read it months ago to comment on another TL) he essentially said:

  1. If you want to implement the Morgenthau plan either 25-33% of all Germans have to emigrate (unlikely in 1945 since not that many countries would be willing to take them in) or they have to die (starvation).
  2. Even after that the proposed idea of a pastoral Germany with just a few light industries (furniture, clothing etc.) won´t work because these few industries won´t generate enough money from exports to pay for essential imports like fertilizer, medical drugs and the like.
  3. And third, historically Germany was the main producer and exporter in Europe of tooling machines, iron and steel, heavy equipment. Without a supplier of these machines inside Europe, the European economy won´t recover from the war. Replacing the German industry and its skilled workers i(n another European country) would be a 10-20 year effort which would have to be largely financed by the USA.
If you want such a scenario to be seriously considered you´d need a POD much earlier than January 1, 1942. Essentially you´d need a much different Soviet union and / or a much different Stalin, I´d say.

Because if you have the same Stalin then you don´t have a 10-20 years grace period for Western Europe. Instead you might see a few more People´s Republics in Western Europe. :)

De-industrializing Germany only works if you have a Soviet union that isn´t seen as a possible threat.
 
You need outside support to be a guerrilla war and Vietnam was mostly fought by the standing army of North Vietnam, not guerrillas. The Allies would just commit massacres and withhold food, just like in OTL 1945 that quashed any thought at resistance.

You don´t think that Stalin would exploit the unrest in Germany?
Weapon deliveries, instructors, safe places?
Especially after the first Soviet nuclear test?

Stalin quote 1942 "Hitlers come and go, but the German people, the German state survive".

Isn´t it the job of the Red Army to help the peasants and workers against their capitalist oppressors? :D

Even a de-industrialized Germany in the 1950s would be a boon. Industries can be rebuilt especially if lots of skilled workers are still alive. Access to North Sea ports would be very nice.
And Denmark, the guardian of the Baltic Sea entrances would be in a quite difficult situation?

And like I said, without the German industry a recovery of the European economy is a lot harder according to the Hoover memorandum. Which might help communist parties in France or Italy.
 
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