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When Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, it had as its objective the conquest of USSR up to the Arkhangelsk-Astrakhan line. This was obviously way too ambitious.

But what if Germany decided that its goal was Brest-Litovsk borders instead? This means basically control of all of Poland, Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine. Perhaps Germany has slightly better intelligence and planning and realized that A-A border was too ambitious but Brest-Litovsk border was realistic.

I think that if Germany waged its war with this in mind and tries to act as "liberators" to Baltic States and Ukraine, it might have a chance of success.

People will rightfully say that this only buys time for Stalin to break Brest-Litovsk II and he will launch his own surprise counterattack in due time. But if Germany plays it right, it can gain the support of newly conquered peoples of Baltics and Ukraine. Incorporating the people and resources of those territories and establishing very strong defenses, it is not clear Stalin will have the nerve to counterattack to regain those territories.

In this scenario, Germany will still have achieved the same massive victories as IOTL but would avoid overreach and overstretch and thus also be much stronger in defense as well. And with friendly puppet regimes in Baltics and Ukraine encouraging its people to support Germany against rump USSR, it also adds to Germany's strength.
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