Germany is nuked...

[Redbeard]

ATL:

June 1944
D-day goes terribly wrong as the meterologists get some calculations/guessing wrong and the invasion is launched right into a violent storm that takes out large parts of the landing fleet and prohibits air support. And what reaches the beach is run over by the panzer counterattack (Hitler wasn't asleep).

July 1944
Hearing the news from Normandy Stalin hesiates to throw resources into Operation Bagration. Instead he orders a strong defensive line established where the onslaught from the Panzer Divisions transferred from Normandy is to be awaited. US and British reports tell of thousands of Tiger tanks being deployed in Normandy (which of course is wildly exagerated, but who can tell). On 20th of July Hitler attends a staff meeting mainly evolving into a celebration of the latest German sucesses.

- August 1945
No major German offensive is seen in the east, and all later Soviet offensives are stalled with great losses in the Red Army. The allies are depressed but refuse to quit and continue the bombing offensive towards both Germany and Japan, while slowly rebuilding morale and strength (landing ships). Germany has control over all of Western and Central Europe. Strategic production is moved to underground sites and the armies are kept supplied at a minimum but acceptable level. Weapons like Me 262's, guided missiles, Panthers and Kingtigers reach the units in numbers. The civilian population suffer tremendously however, people start to starve. In London the V2 blitz is taking its toll on morale, especially as there is no hope of taking out the launching sites in near future.

In the New Mexico desert a project meanwhile takes shape and by late July a small handful of nukes are ready (AFAIK only 3 were ready in OTL, but let's say 4). One is used for testing and it is decided to follow the "Germany first strategy". In first half of August two bombs are dropped over Germany, one over Ruhr and one over Nürnberg. Around 100.000 Germans are killed instantly.

The German OKW meets and discusses the situation. All are shocked over this new weapon, but Hitler concludes that the stratgeic production is dispersed and protected enough to be maintained and that the allied nuking of cities only proves his claims about the eternal evilness of the Capitalistic-Jewish-Bolshevich conspiracy, but BTW only removes burdens from the German war effort. Efforts must be focussed on developing similar weapons and ICBM's to carry them.

In the allied headquarters they listen with horror to Hitler's defiant radio speech after the two nukes. Only one nuke is left and it will take months if not years before more can be produced (this is OTL). Next some start asking about the morality in nuking cities.

What next?

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Karlos]

One wise move for the germans may be to move officials and key facilityes to cityes the allies will never nuke, like Paris.

 

[Straha]

ouch that could get to be VERY ugly especially if the allies are faced with achoice between a bloody forever war or french hatred after the war. I think they'd go for the option of nuking paris to beat the germans.

 

[Redbeard]

ouch that could get to be VERY ugly especially if the allies are faced with achoice between a bloody forever war or french hatred after the war. I think they'd go for the option of nuking paris to beat the germans.

Image Paris being a smoking radioactive rubble with 100.000 dead Parisians and the German leadership just crawling up from their underground shelters and announcing that they have moved to say Brussels. The allied propaganda department have some kind of a challenge...

I'm not even sure if allied morale and politics can stand forever nuking German cities.

BTW wasn't the greatest barrier for the German nuclear programe that their scientists didn't believe a chain reaction could be initiated? Now they have certain proof that it can and the question is how fast they can have a nuke? Is it faster than the allied can grind Germany down? AFAIK the Germans were in OTL close to having operational SAM's. If they get that it could take the bombing offensive back to the stage before the long range escorts. If the Germans get the nuke it is likely to coincide with an ICBM. What if one of the nuke carrying planes is shot down and crashes without the nuke detonating? (like the B52 crashing in Greenland in the 60's).

All in all I think this is a very difficult situation for the allies and there seems no way around a good old sucessful ground campaign.

If the Soviets get their campaign going again, will the US and British just watch or even aid (through bombing/nuking) that the Soviets reach the Channel?

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Tom_B]

Axis Lose

Allied officers who feel ashamed of strategic nuclear bombing will be in the minority. They might create enough pressure that one bomb is used tactically--probably in Italy to breakthrough German defenses.

Another possible repurcussion is that Hitler's resistance to chemical warfare is finally overcome and the end game of WWII is briefly chemical. I think the Germans also had anthrax bombs. In any case if Hitler persists in being stubborn some cabal removes him from power. This cabal might try to negotiate for a week or two but after the next bomb will agree to surrender.

The Germans might hold out a little longer than some people think in this scenario (first generation Abombs are not quite as destructive as some imagine) But there is no way the Third Reich makes it to October.

Tom

 

[Redbeard]

The Germans might hold out a little longer than some people think in this scenario (first generation Abombs are not quite as destructive as some imagine) But there is no way the Third Reich makes it to October.

Tom

What should bring them to fall before October 45?

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[zoomar]

Why autmatically presume cities - not armies in the field - are the target? I have played around with an ATL of an extended WW2 predicated on a Normandy disaster - a temporary 2-3 year lull in fighting in the west during which the USA husbands and stockpiles its nukes until a second invasion of western Europe is mounted. In this history 24 weapons are dropped simultaneously on German forces manning French and Spanish (a lot has happened in this TL)coast defenses and on rear HQ and marshalling areas, coupled with massive propaganda barage on civilian and allied axis powers. Millions of men are killed or disabled while allied forces mount invasion in areas hit only by conventional bombing/shelling. My history (perhaps unrealistically) has most of the axis nations seeking armistice and an eventual sucessful Wehrmacht revolution when bombs start dropping on Germany - Nurnberg first.

 

[Tom_B]

What should bring them to fall before October 45?

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

What cuased Japan to surrender OTL? It's the same logic. The US should have 3 more bombs ready in Sept from what I understand of the production rate for fissionables. Once it becomes clear the US can steadily produce the weapon and the production rate is likely to be increasing regime change followed by frantic attempts to negotiate will happen.

Tom

 

[NapoleonXIV]

All the tls here are assuming the Russians will start losing at about the same time as the Western Front is turned back. My understanding is that, while Stalin truly wanted a second Western Front opened, it really didn't make a whole lot of difference to him in the end.

What would happen if the Americans give the bomb to the Russians?

 

[DuQuense]

If Hitler did His defiant speach after the two Bombs, the third would take out Certral Berlin. Then whe would go back to two Thousand Plane raids and Firestorming. The remaining cities. Wasn't there some famous comment about [" not enuff Japs left to keep the Lanuage alive"] By the time the Germans get around to Offing Hitler this may be true of Germany.

 

[Redbeard]

In august 1945 Japan was cut off from all strategic resources and practically void of all means to defend herself with anything but suicidal sacrifice. A Germany still controlling West and Central (+SE) Europe would not be after having beaten back D-day and stalled the Soviet offensives.

The conventional bombing offensive had made the Germans experts in dispersing and hiding strategic industry and I’ll claim that the number of nukes needed in order to stop German production would not be available for many years.

The blast effect of 1940’s nukes should not be overestimated. An underground shelter is pretty safe half a mile away and you can’t take out armies or even Divisions with a nuke, but perhaps a battalion. But I hate to think of the global environmental effects of nuking entire Germany (and strategic sites in German controlled territory). Anyway I seriously doubt if the allies had the political legitemacy of nuking an entire nation. Just watch the doubts Dresden created. Life will surely be hell in Germany, but we already have enough evidence that the Nazi leaders didn’t care, and was allowed to by the German people. I’d even say that Germany and the Germans going under in a nuclear hell would fit splendidly into Hitler’s final fantasies about the German people deserving extermination if they couldn’t bring him victory...

Sending numerous nuclear strikes will also dramatically increase the risk of loosing an undetonated nuke. That could be just what the Germans need to speed up their nuclear programme dramatically – imagine if they also have the ICBM ready, but London is anyway going to have bad a hair day.

The really big problem is however, that after a failed D-day any US or British initiative actually diminishing the German war effort will only mean the Soviets advancing further to the west. The western leaders will not, and will not be allowed, to ignore that problem – all the speeches about unconditional surrender or not.

In short, 6th of June 1944 had one of the most important events of this civilisation’s history. And it makes me shiver that it was originally planned for 5th of June, but postponed in the last minute because some meterologist foresaw a storm raging on that date, and that a very severe storm raged a few weeks after D-day (IIRC in the alternative launch date of D-day, determined by tidal schedules).

Regards

Steffen Redbeard (2nd try, after loosing entire post, but the last line)

 

[Bill Cameron]

Mr. Redbeard,

A few comments and questions;

- D-Day fails, so what about Dragoon? No Allied presence at all in W. Europe, apparently Italy doesn't count? Does the D-Day failure lead to large losses of landing craft and ships or just troops? Perhaps a strategic reallocation of landing assets from the Pacific could happen? Would the loss of a half dozen divisions really change things that much (Ghod, does that sound cold-blooded...)

- The Achille's heel of the Germany's nuke program was the man who ran it, Werner Heisenberg. He made a rather simple miscalculation regarding neutron abosrbtion early in his work and it was never corrected. That led the Germans down a longer path to the Bomb and, given the lack of resources put into the program thanks to Heisenberg's faulty estimates, effectively put the Bomb out of Germany's reach. Heisenberg later claimed he had done this on purpose. (Yeah, right!)

- Along with the usual chemical weapons, the Germans had also developed nerve gas. They never used it, or manufactured it in large quantities, because they believed the US had nerve gas too. When certain articles in US chemistry publications were either censored or withdrawn, the Germans jumped to their nerve gas conclusion (the articles dealt with precursor compounds for nerve gas). In reality, the US was hiding it's research into pesticides!

- Tactical use of the types of nukes available in '45/'46 is a pipedream. That doesn't mean someone won't try it however.

- Berlin gets one of the nukes, then its a toss up between the Ruhr and Nurnberg. (Maybe Ploesti?) I'd lean towards the Ruhr given the Allies' bombing beliefs. Harris and that lot actually thought they were hurting German production and wouldn't hear the evidence for dispersed and/or underground production. They were quite embarrassed when the Survey came out after the war. German production PEAKED in '44 despite the bombing campaign. Hanford should have had more Pu for Fat Man-style weapons by Jan. of '46.

Hope this helps.


Bill

 

[Redbeard]

Hi Bill

My idea was a heavy storm wrecking the majority of the landing fleet. The biggest loss for the allies would not be the loss of some Divisions (although especially the British were critically short on manpower), but the loss of landing ships. They were always in shortage. Add to that both Mulberrys wrecking and the fuel pipeline breaking etc.

If Normandy fails I doubt Dragoon is launched, and if it is I doubt the Wehrmacht will have serious trouble in defeating it now that Normandy is done with. Seen from allied side it would IMO be better to spare the tonnage for the next big invasion rather than risk loose it on a nother half-hearted attempt.

Thank God the Germans were out on a limb in their nuclear programme, but once the first bomb is seen working I guess a lot is changed - and if the Germans get their hands on one from a crashed plane...

I doubt if nervegas will have a big physical effect. After all masks were widely distributed in the civilan population and there is a lot of air...

I do wonder how much the British would take however. They were clearly exhausted in 45 and AFAIK the V2 blitz took a heavy toll on morale. Now make that a year or two longer and add some nervegas.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Bill Cameron]

Redbeard further expalined:

"My idea was a heavy storm wrecking the majority of the landing fleet."


Mr. Redbeard,

That would be a problem, yet there were plenty of of such craft in other theaters. The Mulberrys and PLUTO would only be of use in a cross-channel attack. A Dragoon-style landing in southern France would avoid the Channel weather problems and air assets could be redeployed etc. It's an option, that's all.

"(although especially the British were critically short on manpower)"

Churchill has a table in one of his Second World War volumes comparing the available British & Empire manpower with available American manpower. It works out roughly the same. Of course many of the divisions he counts are in the CBI Theater. Awards aside, WSC's history does have many, many, many glaring faults.

"Thank God the Germans were out on a limb in their nuclear programme, but once the first bomb is seen working I guess a lot is changed - and if the Germans get their hands on one from a crashed plane... "

Eeek is right. Having an atom bomb detonate overhead would cause them to question Heisenberg's work. The question remains, would htey be able to put together an uranium-gun type weapon in time? I don't know how much 235 they had on hand or how fast they could make and separate it from 238. A Pu Fat Man device is right out, it took Hanford years to create that fuel and the Nazis don't have that kind of time.

"I doubt if nerve gas will have a big physical effect. After all masks were widely distributed in the civilan population and there is a lot of air..."

Don't forget, nerve gas works by skin contact and in absurdly tiny doses when compared to other 'war' gasses. How dry suits are out there?

"I do wonder how much the British would take however. They were clearly exhausted in 45 and AFAIK the V2 blitz took a heavy toll on morale. Now make that a year or two longer and add some nervegas."

Very good points.


Bill

 

[Straha]

germany gets worse punishment post-war. I see the rhine and the ruhr areas going to france post WWII at a minimum. This ATL could have the morganthau plan implemented in germany.

 

[Redbeard]

Hi Bill

Shipping, and not at least landing craft, was always in shortage, and a great loss at Normandy would have been critical for major operations for probably a year ahead. Dragoon was a small operation compared to Overlord and would have been suicide if not having the Germans heavily engaged/anihilated in Normandy. Besides Dragoon had the basic problem of the main airbases being much further away and thus leaving less time over the target.

Besides loosing 10 Divisions would be a major loss. One month after D-day the allied army in France was less than 30 Divisions. In 1944 the British even disbanded a Division to have the others properly manned. The US Army in total never got beyond 100 Divisions (IIRC 90 Divisions).

Nervegas indeed is in another and more lethal league than previous gases, but my general impression of wargases is that they are rather ineffective in inflicting casualties on anybody with a minimum of training and protective gear (I was a NBC instructor in the RDA many years ago). You have to be close to the impact and with nothing between you and the impact in order to have skin contact. I'd be more worried about the types which are not stopped by usual gasmask filters, but they are post WWII. Gas might have an effect on the battlefield, as life in protective gear is miserable, but conventional weapons are far more effective in inflicting casualties. As a terror weapon on London in 1945 it could be the "drop" however... (excuse the pun)


Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Karlos]

wouldn't all the paratroopers be lost if D-Day fails? That's a lot of very skilled men, hard to replace. They'll need time to train new troops.
If the taboo on nerve gas is broken, the germans could fin it very usefull in the east front. I guess the soviets would have more trouble finding the right equipment for their troops than the americans.

 

[Valamyr]

Food for thought, IIRC, back then radiations were mostly an unplanned and unknown side effects of nukes, no?

Would be funny if a bomb was used tactically, say on Calais. Then, all available allied troops pour there from over the channel to launch the conquest of Europe. Strangely, they all get terribly sick and thousands die. By the time the sick are evacuated, the lines flicker, and the German counterattack throws them back into the sea - again.

This largely surprising reaction might even make allied leaders want to know what happened before using the weapon strategically. Or did the allies already know about the radiations thanks to previous testing? Cant remember exactly.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

I think that the moral blow would be more dangerous than the causualties list if D Day fails.

If D-Day fails, then the allies would have to wait at least 6-9 months afterward. Here you have promised to invade and take back Europe only to be defeated by the very foe you were coming after. Plus the morale factor. I believe that had the invasion failed there may be a major shift in policy here in the US. They may take a "first japan" policy. The european conflict would take the backseat.

Hitler would be able to release most of his divisions against the Russians. If there was no D-day the forces later making up 5. and 6. panzer armies (used in the Ardennes) would have been available against the russian offensive towards Berlin. This could have strengthened the possibility for sucess in "bleeding the Red Army to death", as Schörner would have been on a more equal footing with the Sovjets. Generally speaking I do not think Wehrmacht divisions on the Eastern Front got nor quantity nor quality of equipment in the winter of 1944/45. No western front would have meant better suplies for the East Front.

The only pressure than the Western Allies -if we forget for a moment about Italy- could do would be bombing. And remember, production was UP in Germany AFTER the invasion and well into 1945. Course you did not have the personnel to go with the equiment. So I say that Germany could have at the very least made a stalemate of sorts on the Eastern Front.

No way to interfere in the German redeploying towards the East, the nuke bombs have runned out... Difficult situation... or not?

BTW, what about the Italian front?

 

[Mr.Bluenote]

Shipping, and not at least landing craft, was always in shortage, and a great loss at Normandy would have been critical for major operations for probably a year ahead. Dragoon was a small operation compared to Overlord and would have been suicide if not having the Germans heavily engaged/anihilated in Normandy. Besides Dragoon had the basic problem of the main airbases being much further away and thus leaving less time over the target.

I agree! The Allies were notoriously short on landing crafts, There was a lot of internal debate in the US wether to shift focus (read: landig crafts) from the Pacific to Europe and then with the British wether and when to shift from the Med to Channel etc etc. I think that the only thing the Allies ever lacked in sufficient numbers was actually landig crafts!
With a failed Overlord, the Allies would, I think, reshuffle their top leadership, and look very closley at what went wrong. I for one believe that would mean a temporarily halt to further amphibious operations in Europe.

wouldn't all the paratroopers be lost if D-Day fails? That's a lot of very skilled men, hard to replace. They'll need time to train new troops.
If the taboo on nerve gas is broken, the germans could fin it very usefull in the east front. I guess the soviets would have more trouble finding the right equipment for their troops than the americans.

Quite right! A failed D-Day would cost the Allies some of their finest and best divisons, both the paras and the "ordinary" frontline units!
But as Redbeard states, tactical use of gas, especially nerve agents are of somewhat limited use. If I remember correctly, then sunlight and rain fx. severly deminish the effectivenes of such weapons, and, which is perhaps more important in this particular case, the Germans don't, AFAIK, have any delivery vehicles for battelfield use. They could probably jury-rig a V2 for strategic use, but even that is not as easy as it might seem.
I wonder, however, if ordinary blister and blood(?) agents would not be of use on the Eastern Front. Did the Soviets have adequat (NB)C-protection at the time?

Food for thought, IIRC, back then radiations were mostly an unplanned and unknown side effects of nukes, no? (....) Would be funny if a bomb was used tactically, say on Calais. Then, all available allied troops pour there from over the channel to launch the conquest of Europe. Strangely, they all get terribly sick and thousands die.

I believe that the Allies actually feared that the Germans might use dirty bombs on the invasion forces and had specialist teams surveying the beaches for traces of radiation. It might be a myth, but I'm pretty certain that they had an idea that radioactive dust, radiation etc etc was dangerous, but not for how long, nor exacly how dangerous it actually was!

All in all, I think that it would be hard for the Allies to nuke Germany into submission - both practically and politically. Especially since the Germans didn't really acknowledge that they had lost the war until Berlin got cut of, so I suppose large parts of the country had to be bombed... not a nice picture, I'd say!

Best regards!

- Mr.Bluenote.