p { margin-bottom: 0.08in; } The German troops on perpetual alert and wasted on waiting for a crossing attempt of the English Channel could have been profitably applied to obtaining the use of Iberia and Gibraltar (and Spanish Morocco after a German amphibious and airborne operation). There was only brief intent to cross the Channel, the main reason for the deployment being to lull the Russians into thinking Germany would be busy in the west of Europe. The operation in Iberia accomplishes this too and even better, brings them in direct contact with the French in Morocco and establishes a strategic presence in the very important area that Gibraltar dominates. Also, the west coast of Iberia is the closest point in Europe to America, providing a base for aircraft that will eventually be capable of bombing the USA. The ports will be havens for German surface vessels well out of range of British bombers operating from the British Isles or even the Atlantic Islands which the British are sure to occupy. (It's likely for example that the Bismarck would have slipped through to France if it hadn't been for Force H from Gibraltar. And the Canaries are too far away for such a sortie to catch it from there.) Also German submarines crossing the Bay of Biscay will be much safer. Capture of the iron mine south of Melilla and further control and access to the precious tungsten ore of Iberia will be important advantages. (In fact, Spain is fairly rich in many minerals.) The eventual domination of the Mediterranean made possible by securing the Straits of Gibraltar will safeguard the Italian allies, save considerable oil resources, and add much leverage to Germany's position in negotiating with Turkey. Metropolitan France will be further embedded in Germany's sphere of action, and in fact more favour may be curried with them by relieving them of their troubles in Morocco with Spain. French convoys would no longer have to worry about being challenged by the British at Gibraltar on their way to their west African colonies through the Straits. In fact, they will be offered the Rock after the Germans have driven the British away. Of course the French fleet will be completely safe in the Mediterranean with never having to fear another Mers el Kebir. Effectively, a weak and doubtful but occupied partner in Spain is passed over to the British for a stronger possible partner in France.
A German advance into Iberia in late November/early December maintains initiative before the British operations against Cyrenaica, diverting the latter's attention in favour of a rush to the defence of Gibraltar and a new ally, likely interferring with and weakening Operation Compass.
The problems that invading Spain presents will have already been largely known since OKH staff have been traveling Spain in preparation for Operation Felix. Much further analysis and planning can be made from air reconaissance during the winter campaign for Cantabria and Castilla la Vieja.
Hitler meets Franco at Hendaye on October 23rd, with Petain at Montoire on the 24th , with Mussolini at Florence on the 25th. He realizes that the three Latin cards just are not a winning hand and decides to discard one of them. In recognition of the advantages of an invasion of Spain and finally realizing the importance of the things Admiral Raeder has been trying to impress on him, on the day after the meetings Hitler drafts a new directive for his generals to immediately mobilize for an invasion of Spain. Initial objectives are occupation of Spain's northern plain and Atlantic coast (and if necessary Portugal's).
The Nazi propaganda line is that they have come to continue the struggle begun by Spanish Fascism's founder Primo de Rivera, entering the country on the anniversary of his assassination November 20. A campaign directed primarily at Cantabria (still a smouldering ember of Red resistance according to Goebbels) where most of the dirty fighting is to be (because the vital ports of Bilbao and Gijon are needed for extending their supply lines toward the naval bases, their ultimate objectives in northern Spain), provides much satisfaction to Nazi sympathizers in Madrid, which is spared even any threat, German forces halting in the mountain passes above and to the north of the capital, bypassing it on the way to Gibraltar by way of Caceres and Sevilla during an early Spring campaign toward Gibraltar. The Spanish are to be allowed a free zone, similar to Vichy, in the south of the country.
The questions are, would the leadership France had go for this (would Darlan accept the offer to occupy Gibraltar or on the other hand might the French government instead protest the invasion and not cooperate at all), and is a coordinated Spanish response to the invasion possible?
Sincerely, Allan