Germany Invades Spain, Late Autumn 1940

A simpler POD would be to have the Republicans win the SCW.

No, the best chance its a no SCW, like Strangelove´s TL, then we have a pro-French republic and would not piss Stalin so much if they invade Spain ...

If is pro-soviet Hitler would left a force to defend France and ignore Spain, at least until SU its defeated ( or the WA start building forces at large ... )
 

CalBear

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If Spain becomes a member of the commitern after the civil war, then Hitler won't attack them in 1940. He would instead mass troops on the border and invade them coinciding with Barbarossa (he did have 20 divisions milling around in western europe not doing much besides training)

German troops based in Spain create a myriad of problems for the British. Malta becomes much more difficult to supply because convoys can only be sent from one direction, thus allowing the axis to concentrate on a single avenue of approach

I can't see the British basing serious troops in Morocco... since the Germans would close the straits with aircraft and artillery, they would be limited to supply via Casablanca; which is still well within range if the Luftwaffe based squadrons at Seville and San Rourque and also a million miles from anywhere important enough to send troops to

Problem with your timing is that the T/L has a very different one. November 1940 not June 1941. This makes sense because the Heer simply could NOT support two major mechanized invasions at the same time (as results demonstrated it couldn't support ONE IOTL)

Closing the Straits is a LOT more difficult than it may appear IF the British have troops in Spanish Morocco. That is reason enough to put forces there. For one thing, it is quite possible that the Colonial Spanish Government would INVITE the British in as Allies (the Reich has just invaded the homeland after all, which makes the British at least the "enemy of my enemy"). British forces in Spanish Morocco make any effort to close the Strait rather impossible. British RAF squadrons in Morocco (no BoB ITTL remember, so the RAF has the assets), combined with the RN, would also allow the resupply and reinforcement of Gibraltar with far less difficulty than Malta.

A move into Spain would pull even more irreplaceable Luftwaffe assets away from the main effort into yet another sideshow, the better to be chopped to pieces as well as diverting another 300,000-500,000 men (once service troops are included) and anywhere from 800-2,000 tanks, into an open ended occupation in a region that would be an utter pain in the ass to control (guerrilla warfare did start in Spain after all, and the country was hip deep in irregular combat vets in 1940).

Perhaps the most important impact is the status of the Azores. The British get them (and in this scenario it is really hard to see how they don't wind up with them one way or another) and the U-boat campaign is in REAL trouble. The mid-ocean gap in air cover virtually disappears (or is reduced to a couple hundred miles, which is literally a distance that can be covered in a single daylight period by even an 8 knot convoy). Battle of the Atlantic ends before it has properly begun.
 

Markus

Banned
If the Loyalists win the civil war, Hitler has a Soviet aligned state on his southern flank. He would feel a necessity to take Spain quickly after France, and install the Falange in power.

Hardly. As long as he and Stalin are buddies he can ignore a communist Spain. After that he could have counted on much support from the spanish right wingers.

Invading a fascist Spain would be more difficult ... politically but NOT militarily. In 1936 Spain´s military was rubbish, third rate at best and in 1939 the nation had been devastated by years of war.
So who and what could defend the Pyranees? Lightly armed and politically devided nationalists would not stand a chance. Not even against ordinary foot mobile infantry.
Support from the UK? UK ground forces were bested by the Wehrmacht long after 1940 and with or without a BoB the RAF would be doomed by the lack of an air defence network in Spain. It would be Norway all over again: The Germans get in first and have air superiority while the British reinforcements are still at sea. This time the Germans would have an even easier time as France and Spain have a long land border.
Partisans? IIRC the Fascists didn´t have that problem. If Spain had been communist, the Fascists would love to do the anti-partisan work for the Germans and if Spain had been fascist ... the OP said The Nazi propaganda line is that they have come to continue the struggle begun by Spanish Fascism's founder Primo de Rivera,... Franco did have rivals and enemies on the right, didn´t he? The invasion would thus conincide with a coup.
 
Problem with your timing is that the T/L has a very different one. November 1940 not June 1941. This makes sense because the Heer simply could NOT support two major mechanized invasions at the same time (as results demonstrated it couldn't support ONE IOTL)

Closing the Straits is a LOT more difficult than it may appear IF the British have troops in Spanish Morocco. That is reason enough to put forces there. For one thing, it is quite possible that the Colonial Spanish Government would INVITE the British in as Allies (the Reich has just invaded the homeland after all, which makes the British at least the "enemy of my enemy"). British forces in Spanish Morocco make any effort to close the Strait rather impossible. British RAF squadrons in Morocco (no BoB ITTL remember, so the RAF has the assets), combined with the RN, would also allow the resupply and reinforcement of Gibraltar with far less difficulty than Malta.

A move into Spain would pull even more irreplaceable Luftwaffe assets away from the main effort into yet another sideshow, the better to be chopped to pieces as well as diverting another 300,000-500,000 men (once service troops are included) and anywhere from 800-2,000 tanks, into an open ended occupation in a region that would be an utter pain in the ass to control (guerrilla warfare did start in Spain after all, and the country was hip deep in irregular combat vets in 1940).

Perhaps the most important impact is the status of the Azores. The British get them (and in this scenario it is really hard to see how they don't wind up with them one way or another) and the U-boat campaign is in REAL trouble. The mid-ocean gap in air cover virtually disappears (or is reduced to a couple hundred miles, which is literally a distance that can be covered in a single daylight period by even an 8 knot convoy). Battle of the Atlantic ends before it has properly begun.


The Heer as developed in OTL couldn't support two mechanized advances at once... but there is not garauntee they would follow the same development curve if they either plan a 1941 invasion of a communist spain or see active combat after france overthrowing Franco

I don't follow this notion that the RAF could do so well in 1940 or 1941 outside of defending the homeland. They don't have the advantage of home chain radar, nor uber adventageous pilot recovery demographics that existed in the battle of Britain. The Africa Corps in 1941 enjoyed air superiority with only a modest sized force... the spitfire or huricane flying out of the canaries would be at a disadvantage flying aircover over the straits since the ME-109's if based at seville or San Rourqe would be basically just defending the space above their fields; nor is Morocco exactly loaded with good hard metal all weather runways (as compared to the developed constallations around Seville) British fighters would have to be shipped in, in crates or flown off carriers, whereas the Germans could just reinforce overland and bring decisive numbers into the theater (even if temporarily to assert their dominence in the area)

800 to 2000 tanks? why Spain didn't have any serious tank force, nor did they have any particular quantity of heavy weapons, nor is their transport net condusive to such a massive mechanized force... I could see the Germans maybe having a panzer corps or motorized corps for shock and hard advances, but why on earth would they need so many forces against a weak enemy(and in terms of occupation duty or defense against reinvasion later, Spain's terrain mirrors Italy to a large degree which can be defended with a good infantry force taking advantage of hills river lines and mountains)... I could see the occupation taking a lot of divisions... Spain is a big place with angry people in it after all; but to actually defeat the Spanish army, exhausted after three years of war, grossly underequipped and without hope of immediate support wouldn't take nearly that much

I concede the islands in the atlantic being of some use to Britain, but what battle gave any indication that British troops where beating German regulars in ground combat in 1940 or 1941? Or even that the RAF could win air superiority away from their home defenses(I mean in the BOB where they had tremendous advantages their kill ratio was hardly world beating, the situation devolved into something akin to parity, which wasn't good enough to launch an invasion)?
 
BlairWitch749, I'm starting to assume that this is a waste of my time but...

1) This insistence that something be declared possible because you want it to be declared so or based on entirely separate and distinct historical events is becoming tiresome. The Soviet fleet was vastly weaker than the British nor was the Soviet air force very effective, nor was Sevastapol comparable to Gibralter.

The British will not send supply ships past before they had supressed German artillery and a single British battleship would be able to massacre most of that German artillery outside the range of the Germans to shoot back so there had better be a major Luftwaffe presence to prevent that. If the British conclude that a night action while a fleet escorting a large number of merchant vessels blows past might be worth the risk to a battleship, with fighter coverage out of the Canaries then even that might not be enough.

2) How about dicking over several nations seen by Germany as desirable allies, turning one nation seen as a desirable ally into an active enemy and outraging Germany's major ally of Italy?

3) In other words you see nothing wrong with effectively dissolving the occupation of France.:rolleyes: Instead you again try to hijack the thread to your fantasy of a communist Spain. You might also want to check out the actual rate of German military expansion before making claims about Germany's 'leisurely' rate of war production.

4) Most of the units and especially the officers and NCOs did have such experience and the British don't need to send 34 divisions to Spain, they need to provide Spain with sufficient support, primarily in the air and in terms of equipment, to prevent a rapid overrun by Germany. Given Spain's own large number of troops, mostly combat veterans, and an even larger number of men who were serving in combat only recently, plus the extremely rugged terrain only recently fought over, this is quite possible. Also the 34 divisions were only part of what the British had for the war effort.

5) For the last time the topic is NOT an ASB scenario of a Stalinist Spain being invaded by Hitler. If you can not offer a response except to try to hijack the thread then you are wasting my time.

6) In other words you believe that the diversion of a good portion of the Luftwaffe's strength to Spain along with a massive logistical burden will not weaken Germany elsewhere.:rolleyes:

7) I see you intend to continue your delusion that the USSR's much smaller fleet and merchant marine was comparable to the British fleet and merchant marine and that the British will confidentally send merchant ships into German range without taking any action about the German artillery first.

8) More claims, in particular those about supposed Spanish forces preferring Hitler over Franco, plus abandoning Sea Lion much earlier than OTL, and no evidence to justify either claim. Plus an assumption that the divisions and aircraft parked in Spain won't be missed or that Hitler will suddenly conclude a desperate need to make up for the Spanish occupation as he did not from the forces occupying so many other nations.

Please stop being so antagonistic. Having an opposing opinion is good, refuting an idea with another is good. Evidence would be nice, however calling the other person deluded is childish and takes away from the credibility of your argument.
 

Cook

Banned
G’day Allan,
Franco’s Spain was on very good terms with Nazi Germany, it would have been a diplomatic disaster for the Germans to have invaded Spain in 1940. The Nazi-Soviet Pact was damaging enough to Germany’s credibility in Japan without Germany physically invading. What confidence would any German Ally have in the Nazi’s if they invade a friendly state?

The ports will be havens for German surface vessels well out of range of British bombers operating from the British Isles or even the Atlantic Islands which the British are sure to occupy.

In 1940 German Navy had some nine surface combat vessels and after that ceased construction of any new naval vessels other than submarines, so of far more value are ports for U-boats, which Franco’s Spain was happy to provide and which, being neutral, were not threatened by British bombing.

There was only brief intent to cross the Channel, the main reason for the deployment being to lull the Russians into thinking Germany would be busy in the west of Europe.

Regardless of the shortfalls in military merit that the planning and preparation of Sealion displayed, it was intended to defeat the British Empire, not lull the Soviet Union into a false sense of security.

Also, the west coast of Iberia is the closest point in Europe to America, providing a base for aircraft that will eventually be capable of bombing the USA.

In 1940 the Germans were not considering any attacks on the Isolationist United States, consolidating their grip on Europe was the extent of it.

The eventual domination of the Mediterranean made possible by securing the Straits of Gibraltar will safeguard the Italian allies…

In 1940 Italy was not considered threatened, and an Italy that had just witnessed Germany dismembering a friendly Spain would be a lot less enthusiastic Ally as would the other Nationalist and Fascist States of Europe, particularly in the Balkans; why co-operate with Germany when even that does not guarantee your safety?

Regards,
Cook.
 
"Alan,

Welcome to the board,"

Thanks Tony :)


"given the size of the country it would probably take at least 12 if not 20 divisions to maintain internal order on an even semi acceptable basis... its probably not worth the trouble"


Major population centers like Madrid and the densely populated Mediterranean coast including Barcelona and Valencia need not be occupied. A key idea is to isolate the Mediterranean coast much like Vichy France. Also holding the northern plain has a certain advantage in that the region is known as Spain's breadbasket.
 
"a fine, thoughtful scenario. It requires, however, a point of departure in which Hitler decides to postpone Barbarossa until 1942 and spend a year mopping up the Brits in the Med or at least making their position there so desperate that they might be willing to accept a peace on his terms. And he'd also have to decide to concentrate on Spain at the expense of the Battle of Britain"

This operation can be wrapped up by end of May and partly I envisage using fewer forces in the Balkans. But yeah i think Barbarossa would be impacted somewhat. Which really brings the whole purpose of this operation into focus. It's ultimately to bring more weight to bear in the eastern, that is Russian front, theatre of operations.

"he doesn't have the time and resources in the fall of 1940 to do both."

Certainly true. All the heavies are needed in Spain. It's a big country. Long range fighters are needed too, which were really useless over Britain anyway. And the Stukas are better used against weaker air forces. I would bring very few Me109s south though. They are needed to protect Germany against the RAF, which didn't accomplish much anyway.

"As to Gibraltar he may not have to seize it--if he has it ringed with airbases on mainland Spain and in the Spanish enclaves on the Moroccan Coast, he can just let the British fort wither on the vine (like Truk in the Pacific)."

That's initially how the British would be forced out, but Gibraltar as well as Spanish Morocco must be taken.

"Of course this assumes the Brits don't occupy the Canaries and build air and naval bases there (what would happen then exceeds my historical knowledge)."

I acknowledge the Canaries and the rest of the Atlantic are important for ASW and convoys, but they wouldn't be much use against a mainland controlled by the Germans. (They are simply too far away.) Not until considerably after the US comes into the war anyway.

"But Hitler concentrating on the Med gives the British time to build up their land defenses at home and to gain overwhelming predominance in air power over the island--so even if he drives them out of Malta and even seizes the Suez Canal (he couldn't get to India, the distance is just too great and he lacks the naval forces and transport for that)"

Not even the purpose of this anyway. No move beyond Suez is contemplated.

"I doubt the British would surrender--not if they had several thousand Spitfires and Hurricanes to foil any invasion of their island."

Surrender not required. It's sufficient to shut them out of the Med.

"Also, if he calls off Sea Lion"

It was called off and was a bluff mostly to fool Stalin. No need to fool him now because Joe can see the Germans are busy. I do wonder though if he would be fooled. What else would the Russians have wanted in Spain if it wasn't control of Gibraltar? Surely they realized its importance as well.

"and never tries for a final showdown with the RAF,"

The Germans would have saved alot of planes and pilots.

"and never gathers all those ridiculous river barges"

which cost a fortune and were a major drag on the economy. Raeder was still complaining up until he resigned.

"on the coast, then the Brits would feel more comfortable with a decision to send a far greater number of planes,"

which really were not very effective at sea until ASV for the Welllingtons was introduced

"artillery and tanks, and troops, to Egypt, so Hitler by dropping the BOB may doom his own effort to take Egypt before the spring of 1942,"

and are much more difficult to ship to Egypt once the Straits are closed to the British

"when his main forces would have to be concentrating on the Soviet border."

The ultimate reason for taking Gibraltar is to establish a clear sea lane into the Black Sea. (This is sort of a domino theory.) Roundabout way of doing it, but it's the only way.

"However, Hitler has no benefit of hindsight and is pretty irrational anyway, so one could create a plausible POD for him accepting a Med strategy--actually the plan outlined for this thread is a BETTER one than a 1942 Barbarossa (suicidal and insane) or Sea Lion (nuts in military terms although shrewd as a plan to put pressure on the Brits to negotiate a deal). So I think this thread has promise and the scenario should be pursued further.

Best thing about it: A 1942 invasion of the USSR inevitably will get bogged down far, far from Moscow, the Soviets will retain a lot of land, industry, farms and cities that got captured OTL, Hitler has to withdraw even more troops from Spain and the Med--and then the Brits (and the Spanish partisans) come into their own."
 
The ultimate reason for taking Gibraltar is to establish a clear sea lane into the Black Sea. (This is sort of a domino theory.) Roundabout way of doing it, but it's the only way.

I don't see how capturing Gibraltar is going to make it more difficult for the Brits to send troops, planes and tanks to Egypt. Almost all of them went around the Cape anyway, and the Canaries (which the Brits would certainly seize if threatened with the loss of Gibraltar) would be a pretty good alternate base for convoy defense. The important places in guaranteeing the supply of Egypt were Freetown, Capetown, Mombasa, Aden, etc. As to the Germans having a free run through the Strait to the Black Sea, with what ships could this be done? The Germans didn't have sufficient warships to escort merchant ships down the Atlantic Coast to the Strait (esp. if the Brits seize the Canaries). As to inside the Strait, the Italian navy and merchant fleet IS ALREADY THERE--so Gibraltar would only be meaningful in allowing the Italian navy to leave the Mediterranean, which, given that the Italian warships were constructed for use in the Med, not in the far heavier seas of the open ocean, would not be very useful. For the Germans to ship supplies across the Med, they would have to send them to Marseilles or Trieste by railroad; again, Gibraltar has no crucial use.

And if the Italians undertake to ship supplies to the Black Sea from either Marseilles or Trieste (or if the Germans manage to run some supply ships through the Strait, assuming they would even think of doing so given that they already have railroads to do the job by way of their ally Rumania much more easily), they first (a) have to get past the powerful British fleet based at Alexandria and (b) have to get the consent of the Turks. If they didn't get the consent of the Turks in OTL, why would they get it in this ATL, especially since it's an ATL with no Battle of Britain and hence with much more powerful British forces in the Eastern Mediterranean.
 
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Hardly. As long as he and Stalin are buddies he can ignore a communist Spain. After that he could have counted on much support from the spanish right wingers.

Invading a fascist Spain would be more difficult ... politically but NOT militarily. In 1936 Spain´s military was rubbish, third rate at best and in 1939 the nation had been devastated by years of war.
So who and what could defend the Pyranees? Lightly armed and politically devided nationalists would not stand a chance. Not even against ordinary foot mobile infantry.
Support from the UK? UK ground forces were bested by the Wehrmacht long after 1940 and with or without a BoB the RAF would be doomed by the lack of an air defence network in Spain. It would be Norway all over again: The Germans get in first and have air superiority while the British reinforcements are still at sea. This time the Germans would have an even easier time as France and Spain have a long land border.
Partisans? IIRC the Fascists didn´t have that problem. If Spain had been communist, the Fascists would love to do the anti-partisan work for the Germans and if Spain had been fascist ... the OP said The Nazi propaganda line is that they have come to continue the struggle begun by Spanish Fascism's founder Primo de Rivera,... Franco did have rivals and enemies on the right, didn´t he? The invasion would thus conincide with a coup.

A right wing coup in post civil war Spain is ASB
 
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