Germany invades Baltic states in 1939

Suppose Hitler had wanted to avoid war with Britain and France. So, instead of invading Poland in 1939 to create a path for an invasion of Russia, Germany invades the Baltic states.
 
The Anglo-French likely still declare war using Germany's unwarranted aggression as a casus-belli. The reality is that the appeasement began to die soon after the Munich Treaty starting with Kristalnacht and breathed it's last breath the day Hitler annexed the rest of Czechoslovakia. After that, the Western Allies were determined to oppose German expansionism and roll it back. They chose Poland to act as the tripwire because they suspected (rightly) that the Poles would be Hitler's next target. If Hitler invades the Baltics, the Anglo-French will certainly be surprised and they may dither slightly longer but ultimately their response is likely the same: they declare war on Germany.

But even worse, not only have they pissed off the Anglo-French, but they've pissed off Stalin too! The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is a dead letter and Germany is not going to get a single bit of Soviet supplies or raw materials, which pretty much dooms the German war industry from the outset. And having so flagrantly violated the MR Pact, Stalin is not going to ever put the remotest trust in Hitler again which gives the Germans no chance of pulling off a surprise attack like IOTLs Barbarossa.

On the whole, this screws Germany over far worse then DOWing Poland does.
 
I suppose I agree with Obsessed Nuker here, the only possible important addition is how sure we can be of the declaration of war. Rather than against a French ally, this is a move directed against the Soviet Union and in a sense then a commitment against other aggression. Not sure the war will be THAT easy to declare.
 
How? Granted, Baltics probably wouldn't require much in terms of forces but those forces would still need to be supplied by sea. Unless Poles get really bad case of stupids and allow Germans to transit through their territory
 
No, Germany bordered Lithuania in 1939. That strip of land was split in half following WW2; half went to Poland, and half went to Russia. It's a narrow piece of land to support an invasion on, but it could work.

EDIT: Wait, East Prussia is separated from Germany proper. I suppose German forces could concentrate there before the invasion, but it might look suspicious.
 
No, Germany bordered Lithuania in 1939. That strip of land was split in half following WW2; half went to Poland, and half went to Russia. It's a narrow piece of land to support an invasion on, but it could work.

Yes, I know about east Prussia. But troops there still have to be transported and supplied from German mainland because that territory wasn't exactly thriving when it comes to industry and population. And unless Poles allow transport of fuckton of German troops through their territory to East Prussia those troops have to go by sea.
 
How? Granted, Baltics probably wouldn'trequire much in terms of forces but those forces would still need to be supplied by sea. Unless Poles get really bad case of stupids and allow Germans to transit through their territory

The Poles stupid? Think again. Thinking strictly of Poland and not the rest of the world, this is the smartest move the Poles can make. They didn't do well IOTL.
This WI works very well is the POD is Poland suggesting transport access.
 
The Poles stupid? Think again. Thinking strictly of Poland and not the rest of the world, this is the smartest move the Poles can make. They didn't do well IOTL.
This WI works very well is the POD is Poland suggesting transport access.
Poland refused transport access to the Germans IOTL, because they feared it would lead to Hitler taking over the corridor. And you are using hindsight here. With hindsight letting Hitler take the corridor might be the smartest move for Poland (although even that is doubtful), but they don't have hindsight and expect the British and French to come to their aid.
 
The Poles stupid? Think again. Thinking strictly of Poland and not the rest of the world, this is the smartest move the Poles can make. They didn't do well IOTL.
This WI works very well is the POD is Poland suggesting transport access.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight, because Germans are so a trustworthy that the idea of them not transitioning but using that as cover for invasion wouldn't occour to them. Not in a million years, nu-huh no sire Bob.

And even if they don't it's in Polish long term interests to make Gemrany stronger and allow it to extend into Baltics, right?
 
I thought the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact divided up the Baltic states much as it divided up Poland. The agreement on the Baltic states was modified from the original agreement at different times too. The timeline is very different if there's no pact compared to a timeline where Hitler and Stalin divide up Eastern Europe on a slightly different schedule.

I don't think it matters very much if the German army attacking from East Prussia has to be supplied by sea. This isn't Sealion, the Baltic navies aren't the Royal Navy. Nor is surprise a necessity, Hitler was obviously on the path to war, and there's little the Allies could do to defend Poland IOTL and the Baltics in this timeline.
 
I thought the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact divided up the Baltic states much as it divided up Poland.

Kinda. Germany was supposed to get more of Lithuania then it actually did but gladly exchanged it for more of Poland. ITTL, however, they invade and take not just all of Lithuania but all of Latvia and Estonia. That is in direct contravention of the secret protocols of the pact and basically shoots the whole thing in the head.

The timeline is very different if there's no pact compared to a timeline where Hitler and Stalin divide up Eastern Europe on a slightly different schedule.

Except that pissing off Stalin while facing a war in the west is not remotely a good move on Germany's part.

and there's little the Allies could do to defend Poland IOTL and the Baltics in this timeline.

Correct. But it will not prevent them from declaring war anyways with the act of aggression as their casus belli. And without the resources imported from the USSR, Germany is in a much worse position to prosecute the war.
 

PsihoKekec

Banned
It would put Germans far too close to Leningrad for Stalin to tolerate, it's possible he would declare war right away. Soviet submarines would be devastating on German supply routes, as they can't bottle them up without Finnish help. Wehrmacht is much smaller than it was in 1941 and not as tactically and operationally developed. Armour is mostly PzKpfw I&II, which are inferior to T-26, with LT-38 and handful of PzKpfw III&IV. Luftwaffe would have the biggest edge but it would lack enough airfields to employ it's full power.
Red army would be a mess, but operational situation would be in their favor. Their tactics would be based on employment of infantry formations on wide front, with tanks mostly used in support and lots of artillery.
Neither seide could win decisive victory outright, so it would turn into grinding warfare which German economy was unable to support at that time.
 
I don't think it matters very much if the German army attacking from East Prussia has to be supplied by sea. This isn't Sealion, the Baltic navies aren't the Royal Navy. Nor is surprise a necessity, Hitler was obviously on the path to war, and there's little the Allies could do to defend Poland IOTL and the Baltics in this timeline.

It's additional stress on logistics which results in increased problems and slowing down.
 
there was a German proposal for Lithuania to jointly invade Poland and they would receive the Vilnius Region http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vilnius_Region

not sure what they expected the Soviet reaction to be?

(not exactly what OP proposed but German troops WOULD be in a Baltic state)

It would put Germans far too close to Leningrad for Stalin to tolerate, it's possible he would declare war right away. Soviet submarines would be devastating on German supply routes, as they can't bottle them up without Finnish help. Wehrmacht is much smaller than it was in 1941 and not as tactically and operationally developed. Armour is mostly PzKpfw I&II, which are inferior to T-26, with LT-38 and handful of PzKpfw III&IV. Luftwaffe would have the biggest edge but it would lack enough airfields to employ it's full power.
Red army would be a mess, but operational situation would be in their favor. Their tactics would be based on employment of infantry formations on wide front, with tanks mostly used in support and lots of artillery.
Neither seide could win decisive victory outright, so it would turn into grinding warfare which German economy was unable to support at that time.

not sure the German plan for Poland minus agreement with USSR, IIRC they DID plan on rump state existing?

at any rate if Soviets invade (as defensive move) they would have to cross Polish territory as Vilnius Region annexed to Lithuania still does not put them bordering USSR?

IF Germany stopped with narrow corridor and Danzig along with Vilnius Region? and Soviets are invading not sure who Poland would focus on? assume Soviets?
 
If you want a "gamey" way to attack the Soviet Union then get Nazi Germany to push Hungary into war over Northern Transylvania with Romania.

Germany supports Hungary and in the aftermath of the conflict fascists in Romania aligns with Germany, particularly if USSR get bolshie over Bessarabia.

Barbarossa gets launched from the South eventually encircling large numbers of Soviet troops against the Polish border and threatening Stalingrad and Rostov in 1941. Moscow and Leningrad are not threatened in 1941 but the Germans do not suffer as badly in the first winter either.

Definitely a hindsight war but hey - its all AH isn't it.
 
Barbarossa gets launched from the South eventually encircling large numbers of Soviet troops against the Polish border and threatening Stalingrad and Rostov in 1941. Moscow and Leningrad are not threatened in 1941 but the Germans do not suffer as badly in the first winter either.

Definitely a hindsight war but hey - its all AH isn't it.

ASB. Reaching Rostov IOTL 1941 against vastly weaker and less concentrated Soviet resistance broke German logistics while reaching Stalingrad was simply out of the question. In addition, it runs into one of the fundamental all of these "single thrust" strategies do: it allows the Soviets to counter-concentrate their forces to grind down and halt the lone attack instead of spreading their forces out against the three-four separate axis of OTL. Such a proposed thrust would require the Germans to be extraordinarily lucky to reach Kiev.
 
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