Germany Intervenes in the 1940 Mexican Election

Okay,

A brief introduction. In the 1930s, Germany and Mexico developed, well, not good relations, bu decent ones. Mexico's president Cárdenas was not a fan of German aggression or anti-semitism, of course. Mexico was the only nation in the Western Hemisphere that took a firm stand for the Republic, providing it with weapons and aid despite American criticism; it would lter accept thousands of Republican refugees.

And yet both nations had shared economic interests; Germany needed oil, Mexico needed equipment to industrialize, preferably from somebody other than America. And so they signed a series of bilateral trade agreements [1], discussed further oil exploration, etc. Germany offered to sell military equipment and send military instructors to Mexico, and tried creating a series of cultural exchanges. Oddly, Mexican's middle class failed to respond to fascism as much of Europe did, and were a bit miffed when they found out they weren't considered fit to marry Germans.

Anyway, Cárdenas was, as indicated, hardly a friend to Germany; he only sold the Reich oil when America and Britain refused to buy it after he nationalized the oil industry, but there were plenty of others within Mexico who did like Germany. Falangists, Sinaquistas, some ethnic Germans... they didn't add up to a significant force, but the British and Germans thought they did, because both of them had serious hangups when it came to dealing with the Mexican people.

Okay, so this is the background to the 1940 election. The governing Party, the PRI, was opposed by a former general, Juan Almazán. Almazán has een accused of being a quasi-fascist, but his platform, calling for racial integration, religious freedom, land reform to create a class of small-holders, and respect for property rights was designed to attract the support of the center. After a hard-fought election, and some electoral fraud, the PRI won.

Almazán, at this point, started hunting around for support for a coup; but after America indicated disinterest, his supporters turned to the Falangists. Spain agreed to aid hthem, and asked the German Foreign Ministry for support. However the Ministry held that the movement was unimportant, Almazán ultimately supported America, and the PRI candidate (Camacho) would be more useful to Mexico's plans. Camacho, of course, gladly allied with America and made no pretense of supporting Germany.

Now, this is the fall of 1940. I don't think the idea of Germany deciding to be brilliant and launch a coup in Latin America is ASB, given the incompetence of the German Foreign Ministry. So, Almazán gives it a shot, and the coup succeeds in taking Monterrey for all of 3 days before the Mexican government crushes it. The regime itself was never under serious threat, but it strikes me that the American press would not react favorably to German meddling in a democratic election south of the border.

Thoughts?


[1] Which Germany broke after it received oil without giving Mexico the promised goods, something which probably shocks you all.
 
This is a really cool POD, Faeelin, one I've never heard of before.

This would probably strengthen the position of the interventionists in the US; I imagine a "Nazi coup" in Mexico would be a very effective tool for bashing the isolationists in the press, and could be taken as proof that the isolationists were at best dupes who were incapable of understanding the Nazi threat to the US and at worst traitors who probably had something similar up their sleeve for America.

Short term effects outside the press are probably minimal, though. I can't imagine that the US would immediately declare war on Nazi Germany over a three-day kerfuffle in Mexico. Roosevelt might win re-election by a slightly larger margin.

A really interesting longer-term effect comes up when the US does enter the war: maybe Mexico will declare war on the Axis too. I don't know what their capabilities were like, but I remember that Brazil contributed some ground forces to the Allies so it doesn't seem implausible that Mexico could do the same. Mexicans storming the beaches of Normandy shoulder to shoulder with Americans could have all kinds of interesting repercussions on those countries' relationship.
 
Cárdenas was, as indicated, hardly a friend to Germany;
...but there were plenty of others within Mexico who did like Germany. Falangists, Sinaquistas, some ethnic Germans... they didn't add up to a significant force...

All of those statement are putting it mildly. Cardenas was perhaps the leader furthest to the left Mexico has ever had. It was a genuine surprise to many that he chose a successor who was more conservative, and fear of bad US reaction and the right in Mexico played a part.

But to say the Sinarquistas had a serious hope of holding onto power..they just weren't that numerous, in the tens of thousands only. And many ethnic Germans were politically to the left, or from pacifist religious traditions like the Mennonites.

Nazi Germany may try to aid a coup, but I doubt the plotters could hold power for long. And that's before the US even starts to look south.

Perhaps there'd be the threat of a coup where the plotters hope to bluff and push Cardenas to the right. Perhaps the coup's failure would lead to a MX further to the left.
 
Anyone ever get the feeling people stop reading what you post halfway through?

No, but I do get the feeling no one reads what I post. :p

Seriously, how do you think Mexico participating in WWII would change the US-Mexico relationship? Maybe some kind of guest-worker programme would be enacted?
 
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This would probably strengthen the position of the interventionists in the US; I imagine a "Nazi coup" in Mexico would be a very effective tool for bashing the isolationists in the press, and could be taken as proof that the isolationists were at best dupes who were incapable of understanding the Nazi threat to the US and at worst traitors who probably had something similar up their sleeve for America.

I see a couple things. First, this is going to horrify everybody, and is a clear violation of the Monroe Doctrine. Secondly, Mexico will have no choice but to declare war. This may lead to earlier American involvement in the Mexican economy.

The war will be much, much more popular in Mexico, of course. Beyond that? Hrmm.
 
Mexico's involvement in WWII consisted on getting some merchants sunk and sending an air squadron which fought in the Pacific Theater in 1945.
 
America First is laughed at wherever they go.

That is not altogether true. America First was not against war, it was against going to war outsid eof American interests. Many supports felt that fighting Germany meant defending the UK, and later on the Soviet Union. Many people did not like the UK, and few tolerated the Soviets.

Also with a Mexican Coup in place the guide lines of America First take on a whole new meaning.

  • The United States must build an impregnable defense for America.
  • No foreign power, nor group of powers, can successfully attack a prepared America.
  • American democracy can be preserved only by keeping out of the European war.
  • "Aid short of war" weakens national defense at home and threatens to involve America in war abroad.

Even though it clearly favors isolationism, such a group could still make a solid run at "defense for america." Think of a war in which America First is not calling for staying out of war, but trying to defend American borders. Now the Nazi's can be viewed as a threat, so while the group will no doubt lose a lot of clout, it can still be maintained.

So now the issue would become what could such a political and economic force like America First do if it stood behind FDR? Would Japan be seen as a greater foe? Would the semi-nationalization of companies be limited?
 
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