Germany in the mid-1930s without Nazi control

Supposing Hindenberg or another leader successfully manages to delay the rise of Hitler by at least three years, what does Germany in the mid-1930s look like with a Nazi plurality instead of a Nazi government? Where is the impact of this change the greatest? And what impact does this have on WWII if any?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... by far not enough info in the OP to answer the question.

How will the Nazi rise be delayed ) When will be the POD for this ? Who might be the one doing so ? Staying with the guy mentioned in the OP already two occasions from many more jump into my mind.

1. Hindenburg does not sack Brüning in May 1932
  • possibly Groener stays minister of the Interior with Schleicher taking over the recihswehr ministry ... 'sagrufice' to be meade by Brüning to stay in power as well as getting his, maybe again a bit pro-junker modified economic-agrarian reforms of April/May 1932 'passed' by Hindenburg
  • even better and earlier outcome of the Lausanne-Conference of 1932, aka 'real' stop of reparations and/or abandoning of the war-guilt-clause and/or a declaration about equality of rights regarding armament similar to the IOTL 5-Power-Declaration of December 1932 (all these offers were actually on the table IOTL ... despite the diletantic, incapable and about earlier talks/diplomacy uninformed von Papen /von Neurath didn't know much more, as Brüning had donne all the diplomacy by himself since the austriam customs-union affair the year before)
  • with this better 'standing' at home
  • maybe no "Preussen-Schlag", Brüning once again managing some kind of govermental coalition in Prussia after the inconclusive election in 1932, what might have quite some influence on domestics in all over Prussia
  • this together with Groener still responsible for domestics might quite reduce the ... possibilities for the Nazi-propaganda (aka 'SA-happenings')
  • no July 1932 election, though perhaps still later that year, maybe also in November, with the below mentioned economical 'improvements' over OTL very likely a much smaller 'gain' as the July-election IOTL, maybe even a 'dip' as IOTL from an already lower base
  • etc. etc. etc. as well as iterations of the above
2. Hindenburg gives Sxchleicher a green light for his "putsch-from-above"-plan in Dec.1932/Jan.1933 suspending the Reichstag completly and keeping on ruling with presidential decrets ... and the Reichswehr
  • with recuperations I yet didn't (wanted to) think of in detail
For economy :
Germany was beginning 1933, with according indicators already late summer to autumn 1932, to recover, with some even greater (and better publicised) success in Lausanne even more likely. This would 'cut' a lot of ground for the later Nazi rise as well.


Therefore chances are relativly good, that the Nazis might shade back into obscurity they came from, if things might become 'different' from OTL.
But how the migth to end-thirties might look depends heavily on the chosen departure
  • conservatily technocratic civil-service-regime with getting better economics
  • militray junta-regime with getting better economics
  • etc., etc.

... with a Nazi plurality instead of a Nazi government? ...
I assume you mean "majority" ?
Then be said, that the Nazis NEVER had a majority under Weimar condition. ... aside maybe a relative in that they managed to get the highest share on votes, but this also well below any 'majority'.
 
Let's take a less chosen PoD for this - Alfred Hugenberg's death in 1925 or so. His media empire, which promoted the Nazis significantly, never achieves the scope of OTL or possibly unravels, and the DNVP remains a conservative party instead of cooperating with the Nazis even after their 1928 election losses.

The Great Depression still hits. Electoral gains for the NSDAP are still likely, and so are coalitions on the level of regional states. But on the national level, the DNVP is more likely to back governments like Brüning's, maybe even preventing the 1930 elections if the motion of no confidence against him fails in the Reichstag, postponing them into 1931 or maybe even the regular 1932. Gains for the Nazis and KPD are inevitable under the conditions of Great Depression and deflationist policies, so a bourgeois-junker right-wing government may have lost any chance to circumvent a vote of no confidence after that election, but that leaves a lot of options. Maybe the Nazis are integrated into a broader coalition government (like in Thüringen), which falls apart after a year or so without necessarily having achieved anything akin to the February 1933 decrees? Maybe the DNVP tolerates a new Great Coalition, which holds on to power by the skin of their teeth against Nazi, communist and agrarian motions of no confidence?

Either way, there are many plausible scenarios resulting in a Germany with a sizable Nazi party but no Hitler government by the mid-1930s - and after that, a Nazi takeover becomes less and less likely, as the economy slowly recovers. In the crisis, the Nazis gobbled up the vote of countless small single interest parties. When the crisis ends, these (or other) single interest parties are going to return, and bourgeois parties are going to recover slightly, too - or the SPD is getting stronger, depending on who is being credited for steering Germany out of the Great Depression.

If any of these hold, there is not going to be a WWII as we know it. Simple as that.
The effects of a continued Weimar instead of Nazi government would be strongest in Germany itself, of course, but outside, it could prevent Austria's slide into autocracy in 1934, it would probably prevent the Popular Front strategy of the Comintern from coming into being, thus keeping the Left in Spain and France divided. Poland's descent into ever more authoritarian rule may or may not happen. That's about what I think would clearly have changed by 1936/7.
 
You could even have a POD where Hugenberg gets assassinated due to competing ideologies. The 20s were quote turbulent after all. There were a lot of crazies on both sides.

It could be especially interesting if the alleged assassin has ties to organizations that are purportedly affiliated with internationalists run by the Bolsheviks.
 
It's tricky... Keynesian politics would lead to inflation which is right out, but Brüning's austerity was no success either. Anyone knows a third option?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
It's tricky... Keynesian politics would lead to inflation which is right out, but Brüning's austerity was no success either. Anyone knows a third option?
Why needing a third option ?
Brünings clinging to austerity policies was to a great deal part of his anti-reparations-policies. With these gone (Lausanne May/June 1932) there would be most likely a rather hefty increase in govermental supported investments ... aka Keynesian politics. The industry was looonging for investments it wasn't able to in the last 4 years. They would be quite pressing for whatever subsidizing the goverment of whatever 'color' could/would offer.

The economists of the time were rather equaly split about the way to counter the world-wide economic crisis. Schemes that resemble some kind of Keynes - with whatever name, title, heading and there were a lot - were almost equally strong contenders.

And don't forget : this happened IOTL not - or only to a very small degree due to No-Brüning-anymore but incompetent-Papen-now. Even Papen initiated a - though much too small - program of govermental investments for ... agriculture esp. in the eastern parts. After Papen was gone Schleicher was rather quick in letting the economists in his goverment draw up bigger govermental investment-plans, taken over by the Nazis to form in large parts the 'Reinhardt-programs' for work-creation.
 
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