Germany hangs on in 1918: Anglo withdrawal?

I vaguely remember a rumour going around here that if Germany had kept chugging for a few months longer, and Ludendorff hadn't had all but a mental breakdown, then their gains in the East could have sustained them for a good while and drawn the war back into a stalemate. First, is this true? And second, if Germany does manage to hang on, could the Anglo powers have lost the will to fight and tried to seek a negotiated peace? What would that look like, especially with regard to Alsace-Lorraine?
 

MatthewB

Banned
No, now that the US is in the war, if the Germans don’t capitulate the Wallies march into Germany. In hindsight that might have been better, since Germany would have likely have been properly occupied, visibly defeated in the eyes of its people, and perhaps broken up into its pre-unification states. With no recognizable government, there’s no one to pay reparations.
 

Ian_W

Banned
I vaguely remember a rumour going around here that if Germany had kept chugging for a few months longer, and Ludendorff hadn't had all but a mental breakdown, then their gains in the East could have sustained them for a good while and drawn the war back into a stalemate. First, is this true? And second, if Germany does manage to hang on, could the Anglo powers have lost the will to fight and tried to seek a negotiated peace? What would that look like, especially with regard to Alsace-Lorraine?

No, it's not true.

The "stab in the back" theory is a lie - the German Army, after the failure of their early 1918 offensives, was done.

The Hundred Days saw an unbroken series of defeats for the Germans, with every engagement seeing at worst similar numbers of German prisoners to Allied casualties.

If the 1918 offensives get ended because the Anglo powers don't want to attack in winter, then the Spring 1919 offensives are going to see more fresh troops backed by more artillery, more tanks and more airplanes than the German army can deal with.

If you're interested, read this https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Breaking_the_Hindenburg_Line

Its about a British line division, and how in September 1918 they smashed a defensive line the Germans had been working on for two years in less than twelve hours.
 
No, it's not true.

The "stab in the back" theory is a lie - the German Army, after the failure of their early 1918 offensives, was done.

The Hundred Days saw an unbroken series of defeats for the Germans, with every engagement seeing at worst similar numbers of German prisoners to Allied casualties.

If the 1918 offensives get ended because the Anglo powers don't want to attack in winter, then the Spring 1919 offensives are going to see more fresh troops backed by more artillery, more tanks and more airplanes than the German army can deal with.

If you're interested, read this https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Breaking_the_Hindenburg_Line

Its about a British line division, and how in September 1918 they smashed a defensive line the Germans had been working on for two years in less than twelve hours.

The situation was once described to me as the German Army in Sept 1918 still had lots of Divisions just no Regiments left.

The 100 days offensive had overrun many of the railheads wrecking the logistical system that had served them so well for 3 years. Had the war not ended when it did then a soon to be launched US army offensive would have over run most of the rest around Sedan. This would have forced the German army right back into Germany probably as far back as were the Allied occupation zones ended up.

No railheads. No Defence.

(Anyone else having problems posting pictures recently?)

Hundred_Days_Offensive
 
The German army was completely done by 1918, they didn’t even have enough metal for bullets anymores. They still had men (even that was getting tight) they just didn’t have anything else.
As a matter of fact, by the time Tanks came around, the German couldn’t field them in any serious numbers due to lack of ressources, they even designed them to use scrap metal from scrapyards, but by the time it was designed they had no scrap metal left.
 
No, now that the US is in the war, if the Germans don’t capitulate the Wallies march into Germany. In hindsight that might have been better, since Germany would have likely have been properly occupied, visibly defeated in the eyes of its people, and perhaps broken up into its pre-unification states. With no recognizable government, there’s no one to pay reparations.

Most unlikely. The Germans would have quit as soon as the Allies forced a crossing of the Rhine, and probably as soon as that appeared imminent. End result probably not much different from OTL.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
The German army was in disarray come fall 1918 and the country on the brink of civil war. Germany was a spent force. The spring offensives were the last spark of the German war machine, and one could argue that how chaotic they ended up also made it nearly impossible to defend against the Entente counter-attacks.
 
Most unlikely. The Germans would have quit as soon as the Allies forced a crossing of the Rhine, and probably as soon as that appeared imminent. End result probably not much different from OTL.

Yes. So long as German boots are on foreign soil they will believe that they retain an advantage of sorts in any future peace talks.

Once the Railheads in Belgium were over run during the 100 days and the German army incapable of recapturing them and with the Railheads south west of the Ardenne about to be over run there was very little to stop the Entente from closing up to the Rhine and then it would be a case of 'Entente boots' on German soil.
 

Deleted member 94680

As has been pointed out previously, the WAllies (I’m not sure the French or Italians would be happy to be described as the ‘Anglo Powers’) have the Americans to bolster their numbers. The AEF had fought at the Aisne (at Château-Thierry and Belleau Wood), Saint-Mihiel and Meuse-Argonne in 1918. If the War had continued into 1919, American units, in larger numbers and with greater responsibility, would have taken up more of the burden. British and Empire units would have rotated out of the frontline more, or have been parcelled out to bolster American lines, whilst the French would have garrisoned more of the line to allow their army to recover their morale whilst still carrying a burden.
 
That's impossible. Sounds like a Blitzkrieg which isn't possible without a lightning fast advance.
You can do any advance even fast one with cavalry in 1918 if the majority of the opposition has collapsed and is walking home trying not to be involved.....
 
That's impossible. Sounds like a Blitzkrieg which isn't possible without a lightning fast advance.


Hardly.

Bulgaria quit September 29, and the Serbs retook Belgrade Nov 1. So it took a whole month for the Allies to reach the Danube, even against minimal opposition. A fairly slow-motion blitzkrieg.
 
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