Germany goes purely on the Defensive 1941 winter

[hammo1j]

Let's say Germany loses Hitler on say a crystal meth overdose delivered by his obliging physician in late 1941

The Wermacht goes on the defensive to try to keep the gains. They clearly realise declaring war again a gun crazy nation like the USA is a no no.

So how long do they last?

 

[pattersonautobody]

Let's say Germany loses Hitler on say a crystal meth overdose delivered by his obliging physician in late 1941

The Wermacht goes on the defensive to try to keep the gains. They clearly realise declaring war again a gun crazy nation like the USA is a no no.

So how long do they last?

Already hashed out, Hitler chockes on Chicken bone Oct 16 1941

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-hitler-dies-on-october-16-1941.318463/

 

[thaddeus]

if they give up the initiative they likely lose even faster. possibly if they had better control over the Baltic and/or Black Seas maritime supply would have allowed them to switch to defensive scenario but only over limited territories?

 

[HMS Audacious]

Hitler made a few major mistakes.

1: The 2 year ban on research into jet and other technologies.

2: The V weapons programmes.

3: The ban on research and design of defensive weapons.

4: Dora and Gustav cannons

5: Building the bf109 fighters after 1940 instead of building the FW190A in greater numbers.

6: Unfortunately to DoW on the USA can't be avoided. As soon as the Japanese attacks pearl harbour the Germans have no choice but to declare war.

The list goes on and I don't have my books in front of me to list them all

 

[iddt3]

Hitler made a few major mistakes.

1: The 2 year ban on research into jet and other technologies.

2: The V weapons programmes.

3: The ban on research and design of defensive weapons.

4: Dora and Gustav cannons

5: Building the bf109 fighters after 1940 instead of building the FW190A in greater numbers.

6: Unfortunately to DoW on the USA can't be avoided. As soon as the Japanese attacks pearl harbour the Germans have no choice but to declare war.

The list goes on and I don't have my books in front of me to list them all

Yup, I was rereading that thread, the US is now allied with the UK and still sending war material to the USSR. The only way for Germany to avoid war is essentially a unilateral ceasefire with the UK and a complete halt on submarine warfare - anything else and the US probably declares war by the end of 1941. Public support for such a declaration was 90% in a December 10th poll.

 

[bernardz]

Hitler made a few major mistakes.

I am not so sure these you listed are mistakes

1: The 2 year ban on research into jet and other technologies.

At the time Germany had a pressing need for conventional aircraft.

2: The V weapons programmes.

V2 was a waste but Hitler did not push it till late in the war.
V1 was a great success and I am not sure why you blame Hitler for its slow introduction.

3: The ban on research and design of defensive weapons.

Which ones were you thinking of and how would they have changed the war, Hitler needed to win early if he was to win his war.

4: Dora and Gustav cannons

Hardly a significant expense in the overall scheme.

5: Building the bf109 fighters after 1940 instead of building the FW190A in greater numbers.

I am not sure it is an either-or situation, the Bf109 could be produced in bulk and was improved dramatically over the war. Overall there is not a lot of difference in fighting quality between them.

6: Unfortunately to DoW on the USA can't be avoided. As soon as the Japanese attacks pearl harbour the Germans have no choice but to declare war.

Agreed

 

[NoMommsen]

6: Unfortunately to DoW on the USA can't be avoided. As soon as the Japanese attacks pearl harbour the Germans have no choice but to declare war.

Agreed

IMHO the germans and ITTL the not-anymore-hitlerite germans had IOTL as well as ITTL the same 'choice' in declaring war on the US after the japanese attack on Pearl Harbour as the japanese had in declaring war upon the UdSSR after the german attack on Russia.

IOTL it was only Hitler who actually decided upon the DOW against the US ... against - AFAIK - the rather rightfully frightened militaries not at least even Göring.

 

[History Learner]

The November Halt order retained sees the Germans hold their positions, taking fewer losses while inflicting much more in return. This means significantly more Soviet formations tied down around Moscow into 1942, which likely means a successful Blau and thus quite possibly a victorious Germany.

 

[HMS Audacious]

The Dora and Gustav cannons are serious man hogs. Gustav cost 7 million reichmarks to build and took 2750+ men to build and defend it. I mean it took 250 men 3 days to lay down the track 2500 to put it together and 2 flak battalions to defend it. Those troops could and should have been used in other places.

The FW190A would and did get air superiority back from the RAF until the introduction of the spitfire MK IX. With its more powerful radial engine and ability to carry a heavier war load.

The v1 I agree with you, cheap to build but very easy to destroy on the ground and in the air.

 

[tomo pauk]

Let's say Germany loses Hitler on say a crystal meth overdose delivered by his obliging physician in late 1941

The Wermacht goes on the defensive to try to keep the gains. They clearly realise declaring war again a gun crazy nation like the USA is a no no.

So how long do they last?

It is anyone's guess how long they last.
I'd try to get UK and USSR on peace talks ASAP.

Hitler made a few major mistakes.

1: The 2 year ban on research into jet and other technologies.

2: The V weapons programmes.

3: The ban on research and design of defensive weapons.

4: Dora and Gustav cannons

5: Building the bf109 fighters after 1940 instead of building the FW190A in greater numbers.

6: Unfortunately to DoW on the USA can't be avoided. As soon as the Japanese attacks pearl harbour the Germans have no choice but to declare war.

The list goes on and I don't have my books in front of me to list them all

1. Not sure that such a ban actually existed
2. V1 was good idea, V2 and V3 were wrong.
3. Again, not sure that such a ban existed.
4. Agree.
5. Fw 190A will not fly in 1940, literally - it was barely service-worthy in 1941.
6. Probably that is the case.

 

[DougM]

It depends if Hittler dies do the Generals immediately sue for peace claiming that they didn’t want war and the people didn’t want war but only that Insane Hittler And is druggy supporters wanted war?
I can see the Generals staging a coop arresting all the Nazi leaders and outlawing the part then blaming them in an effort to secure a peace treaty.
If this happens before the attack on Russia they just may get it if they are willing to put up with the terms offered.
If after The invasion then they may only get England and France to Agree but only if the go back to 1939 boarders.

Otherwise it doesn’t save them very much.

 

[hammo1j]

It depends if Hittler dies do the Generals immediately sue for peace claiming that they didn’t want war and the people didn’t want war but only that Insane Hittler And is druggy supporters wanted war?
I can see the Generals staging a coop arresting all the Nazi leaders and outlawing the part then blaming them in an effort to secure a peace treaty.
If this happens before the attack on Russia they just may get it if they are willing to put up with the terms offered.
If after The invasion then they may only get England and France to Agree but only if the go back to 1939 boarders.




Otherwise it doesn’t save them very much.

The only thing the Wermact can do is continue the war. The population will regard it as their divine right from a God given fuhrer.

Naturally cooler minds will realise the insanity. But they cannot do a thing against the heft of history.

But can they hold it given its only Uk aid and it may be a goal to only take half of Poland

 

[Marc]

The key, often overlooked question is what does the Waffen SS do in the event of Hitler's demise.
My guess, not good things.

 

[bernardz]

IMHO the germans and ITTL the not-anymore-hitlerite germans had IOTL as well as ITTL the same 'choice' in declaring war on the US after the japanese attack on Pearl Harbour as the japanese had in declaring war upon the UdSSR after the german attack on Russia.

IOTL it was only Hitler who actually decided upon the DOW against the US ... against - AFAIK - the rather rightfully frightened militaries not at least even Göring.

He had already promised in the event of Japan going to war with the US, that Germany would go to war against the US. At the time he had FDR regularly and publicly speaking that Germany was involved in Pearl Harbour. In the Atlantic U-boats and US ships were already in conflict. I do not see it being at all similar to the Japanese after the German attack where both Russia and Japan were honouring the peace eg Lend lease ships to Russia went thru Japanese territory.

 

[NoMommsen]

He had already promised in the event of Japan going to war with the US, that Germany would go to war against the US. At the time he had FDR regularly and publicly speaking that Germany was involved in Pearl Harbour. In the Atlantic U-boats and US ships were already in conflict. I do not see it being at all similar to the Japanese after the German attack where both Russia and Japan were honouring the peace eg Lend lease ships to Russia went thru Japanese territory.

Only that He (btw : when did he make this 'promise' you talk of to whom?) is dead ITTL and Göring with his anit-war-with-the-US-stance has inherited his position ... however contested at first within the Reich by Himmler and the SS but most likely supported by the by far bigger and mightier Wehrmacht who would very likely prefer a Göring before a Himmler (aside both choices might be rendered somewhat 'suboptimal' by the generals).

I well agree with you that in the atlantic the germans and the US were on occasion already shooting at each other. ... but both sides at that point of time still refrained from making these 'accidents' offical by DoW-ing each other.
Something IMHO Göring would very likely continue and perhaps even tell Raeder to get his ships and subs better obey NOT to attack US assets.

And Japans 'honoring' whatever with the USSR, letting lend-n-lease or whatever passsing through to Stalin ... rather another reason to let the japanes be left in the lurch with the US after NOT honoring their 'older' anti-komintern-pact with Germany in summer 1941 after 'betraying' it already in April 1941.

Therefore I can't wrap my head around a german DoW against the US with a post-Hitlers-Death regime in 1941.

 

[DougM]

I think it is a bit of a false belief that everyone in Germany was Pro Hittler and it Pro Nazi.
I believe that everyone in Germany was Pro Breathing and smart ento realize that being anti Hittler or Anit Nazi was not conducive to continued breathing.
So I think a between the Anti war folks. The anti Hittler/anti Nazi folks. And those smart enough to realize the war was a bad idea from a tactical/strategic sense you actually probably have a pretty large percentage of the population that would have been happy to ecstatic to have the War ended/ Hitler / the Nazis gone.

So I don’t think it is impossible that if Hitler dies then Germany may see a coup or an outright revolution like Russia in WW1
Is it likely? Who knows, probably not. But it isn’t impossible.

 

[Johnrankins]

I think it is a bit of a false belief that everyone in Germany was Pro Hittler and it Pro Nazi.
I believe that everyone in Germany was Pro Breathing and smart ento realize that being anti Hittler or Anit Nazi was not conducive to continued breathing.
So I think a between the Anti war folks. The anti Hittler/anti Nazi folks. And those smart enough to realize the war was a bad idea from a tactical/strategic sense you actually probably have a pretty large percentage of the population that would have been happy to ecstatic to have the War ended/ Hitler / the Nazis gone.

So I don’t think it is impossible that if Hitler dies then Germany may see a coup or an outright revolution like Russia in WW1
Is it likely? Who knows, probably not. But it isn’t impossible.

Obviously not everyone was pro-Nazi in Germany at the time, the Jews certainly weren't. That said the great majority probably were until l944 when things started to really fall apart. By the time the Allies won the Nazi Party was pretty unpopular.

 

[bernardz]

Only that He (btw : when did he make this 'promise' you talk of to whom?) is dead ITTL and Göring with his anit-war-with-the-US-stance has inherited his position

Point taken

... however contested at first within the Reich by Himmler and the SS .
but most likely supported by the by far bigger and mightier Wehrmacht who would very likely prefer a Göring before a Himmler

(aside both choices might be rendered somewhat 'suboptimal' by the generals).

The Generals overwhelmingly wanted the war to end, I rather doubt that without Hitler, Himmler would want an extension of the war either.


Take out Hitler and I am sure that a Germany would offer in exchange for peace a very generous term to settle the war.

I well agree with you that in the atlantic the germans and the US were on occasion already shooting at each other. ... but both sides at that point of time still refrained from making these 'accidents' offical by DoW-ing each other.
Something IMHO Göring would very likely continue and perhaps even tell Raeder to get his ships and subs better obey NOT to attack US assets.

And Japans 'honoring' whatever with the USSR, letting lend-n-lease or whatever passsing through to Stalin ... rather another reason to let the japanes be left in the lurch with the US after NOT honoring their 'older' anti-komintern-pact with Germany in summer 1941 after 'betraying' it already in April 1941.

Therefore I can't wrap my head around a german DoW against the US with a post-Hitlers-Death regime in 1941.

FDR wanted war, this is a major point in the OTL maybe less here but unless Germany made major concessions which I doubt is impossible here as few in Germany wanted the war to continue, few were particularly impressed with Nazi ideology. However, if the war continues, I would say ww1 and US entry in the war would be a model for what would happen. The British and Americans would be allies in the Pacific and the shooting match grows in the Atlantic, it will only be a matter of time.

 

[perfectgeneral]

That said the great majority probably were until l944

I think "majority" assumes a democratic environment that was not in evidence at the time. A forceful minority backing would be enough until 1944.

 

[Johnrankins]

I think "majority" assumes a democratic environment that was not in evidence at the time. A forceful minority backing would be enough until 1944.

True enough, which is why I said probably. There were interviews of captured Nazi soldiers, captured diaries and the like that seem to indicate popularity for the Nazi Party until mid to late 1944 though. Of course, this was affected by Nazi propaganda and education. It was most popular with the young for that reason. They heard nothing but Nazxi Propaganda all their lives.