Germany goes on pure defensive after D-Day

Excellent point. And this was essentially what Runstedt's and Model's proposed plans were variants of - large scale spoiling attacks intended to smash up select Allied formations at limited cost to the Heer and the Luftwaffe. The actual course of the initial stages of the Battles of the Bulge suggests such possibilities could have been realized, especially if they could so in bad weather.

Hitler, naturally, rejected the entire idea in favor of a blind Hail Mary pass: Antwerp or Bust.

Even Sepp Dietrich was suggesting something along the lines of what Runstedt and Model were proposing as late as October, which suggests to me even the higher ranking SS fully realized the score by late 1944. Honestly, the Wehrmacht even following the end of Bagration and Falaise still had the ability to inflict some more defeats on both the Soviets and the Anglo-Americans, but the lack of a coherent (Or sane, most obviously) strategy prevented such.
 
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