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Assume the same political crisis leads to WWI and that the powers have their OTL leadership and force structures in 1914.
The only difference is Moltke has an updated east-first plan that he is prepared to execute in case of a political crisis involving Austria-Hungary.
So the Germans defend in the West with 30 to 50 percent of their forces. The remainder are committed to a grand offensive against Russia, or reserves mainly for that campaign.
Further assume that the French attacks in the west in 1914 never threaten a strategic breakthrough into Germany, even if the French claim some minor border territory through costly fighting.
Where is the CP frontline by the end of 1914?
Is the state of the Russian Army worse in December 1914 than it was in OTL August 1915?