Germany focuses on Russia first

herricks

Ok earlier today i was thinking on WW1 & was wondering how different things would go if from the beginning of the war Germany had focused on defeating Russia first & had taken more of a defensive stance against France?
 

CthulhuFhtagn

Banned
herricks said:
Ok earlier today i was thinking on WW1 & was wondering how different things would go if from the beginning of the war Germany had focused on defeating Russia first & had taken more of a defensive stance against France?
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The plan was to take out France early in order to focus on Russia. In order to change the order of the Schlieffen Plan, you'd have to significantly weaken Russia and/or strengthen France, which might butterfly away WWI altogether.
 

jmc247

Here is the problem with that....

German trains could only handle so much movement of men and material so that the war in Russia would not be quick. By the time the German Army is deep into Russia the French will be busy preparing for an offensive war into Germany.
 

JLBB

CthulhuFhtagn said:
The plan was to take out France early in order to focus on Russia. In order to change the order of the Schlieffen Plan, you'd have to significantly weaken Russia and/or strengthen France, which might butterfly away WWI altogether.
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Or put somebody in charge of the German general staff that favored the east first option, which means Moltke can't be the chief of general staff, perhaps you need to butterfly Schlieffen as well.
From what little I read of him Waldersee favored attacking Russia, so have him keep his job and when he retires/dies have Wilhelm appoint somebody that keeps the focus on the east.
 

miketr

Germany had a war plan as late as 1912 for a mass vs. Russia with roughly half the army.

In any case Wilhelm II nearly caused Moltke to have a break down when he announced that they could ignore France and go after Russia following a telegram from the Ambassador in London that later turned out to be false.

Is it possible to get Germany to mass vs. Russia as late as 1914? Yes but it requires some changes as lone war plan from 1913/14 on was everything vs. France. One choice is for the crises to play out differently. Another is for Conrad to dig his heels in over his mobilization debacle because the way that was playing out was getting the Germans worried. Maybe have that go even worse, such that Germany feels that they have no choice but to improvise something; the Germans hadn't started mobilization yet so there was an opening.

If the Germans mass east its going to take two extra weeks for all the troops to arrive in theater. Depending on what exactly they do you end up 4 armies in East Prussia or 3 in Prussia with the 4th in Silesia; something like that.

My two bits is UK sits on the side line for at least week with no Germany in Belgium to provide the provocation. French plow into A-L and you get a blood path there. The question mark is what does Russia do.

I really wonder if they would be capable of moving the armies once in motion; 4th army which was assigned to Germany or Austria-Hungary depending on the setup. Would there be time to have the 4th redirect towards Germany once it became clear that Germany was massing East? France and Russia had agreement to do combined offensives by X days after mobilization, 15 days I believe (this is the 1st and 2nd Russian armies into East Prussia).

Maybe Russia improvises successfully, maybe they try and botch the improvisation and so the 4th army ends up on nether front for first week or two of the fighting or maybe Russia just ignore things blows a head ignoring the situation. I suspect Russia drags their feet in responding to the German stance (4th army gets set to Galacia and then moved later) and they go forward with their scheduled offensive so 1st and 2nd armies get chopped to bits. Thats me, others may differ in how much credit they give the Russia high command, I don't give it much.

Even if the Russians don't botch the opening moves of the war like I am suggesting and even if they go defensive with 1st and 2nd armies, there is going to be a big shift in combat power in the east. There is all sorts of butterflies to consider for A-H. Russia is going to have to sooner or later switch troops from Galacia to Poland to face the bigger German threat. Which takes pressure off A-H. Conrad botched the opening 6 months of the war as complete as possible and really badly damage the army; anything that improves this can only help the efficiency of the Hapsburg army over the course of the war. By end of 1914 I figure Warsaw has fallen and the Germans have or will soon have most of Congress Poland. By end of 1915 the Germans are deep into the Baltics.

Long term question is does UK stay out? When does France give up on trying to head but their way into A-L?

Michael
 

miketr

JLBB said:
Or put somebody in charge of the German general staff that favored the east first option, which means Moltke can't be the chief of general staff, perhaps you need to butterfly Schlieffen as well.
From what little I read of him Waldersee favored attacking Russia, so have him keep his job and when he retires/dies have Wilhelm appoint somebody that keeps the focus on the east.
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General der Infanterie (later Generalfeldmarschall) Colmar Freiherr von der Goltz favored going east first and he wanted to heavily fortify the Franco-German border and conscript more of Germany's manpower to create a larger army. That would be one way to assure it.

Michael
 

Ivir Baggins

With regards to Alsace-Lorraine, if the Germans don't bypass it via Belgium then the French will due to similar reasons. Basically, the German fortifications there are bloody strong, whereas the Ardennes is by comparison open.
 

miketr

herricks said:
with something such as this & Belgium not & Britain setting out until they can get another good enough reason to enter & France bogged down in A-L could you see a shorter war that the Central Powers win?
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I think that if UK sits out and Germany goes east, CP is a given. Only question is how long does it take for Russia to either come apart or seek peace. Excellent chance that war is over by 1916.

Michael
 

miketr

Ivir Baggins said:
With regards to Alsace-Lorraine, if the Germans don't bypass it via Belgium then the French will due to similar reasons. Basically, the German fortifications there are bloody strong, whereas the Ardennes is by comparison open.
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France had thought it over but for diplomatic reasons they were not going to do that; at least as part of the opening move of the war. Maybe after they have lost half a million troops KIA, Wounded, etc trying to smash their way into A-L they might reconsider but Plan XVII is locked for offensive into A-L to start the war.

Michael
 

Deleted member 1487

miketr said:
I think that if UK sits out and Germany goes east, CP is a given. Only question is how long does it take for Russia to either come apart or seek peace. Excellent chance that war is over by 1916.

Michael
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I have to respectfully disagree; OTL Eastern Front was set up by the Russians being on the offensive early on and losing their pre-war army in 1914/winter 1915. If the Germans turn East first, they are fighting Russia deep on their home turf in prepared positions, which is what they had been training for pre-war. So while Germany would be tough, the Russians would have lots of advantages they lacked IOTL, so Germany could end up in a very hard and costly slog with France having access to her pre-war industry and raw material deposits, while threatening the Saarland and Rheinland.
 

miketr

Everyone took heavy losses to start WW1. In terms of long term effects I rate those losses being worst for A-H followed by the UK, then you can debate Russia, Germany and France for 3rd place, IMO. I don't think its a given at all that Russia sits on the defensive either.

The above and other issues aside the bottom line is that Russia is simply incapable of producing enough war material or fully mobilizing its manpower reserves. Sooner or later these problems are going to come to a head.

Michael
 

Deleted member 1487

miketr said:
Everyone took heavy losses to start WW1. In terms of long term effects I rate those losses being worst for A-H followed by the UK, then you can debate Russia, Germany and France for 3rd place, IMO. I don't think its a given at all that Russia sits on the defensive either.

The above and other issues aside the bottom line is that Russia is simply incapable of producing enough war material or fully mobilizing its manpower reserves. Sooner or later these problems are going to come to a head.

Michael
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Russia actually was close to 2nd in terms of losses of prewar forces. Germany probably suffered the lowest of the major powers in terms of pre-war force loss; in fact that is what kept them doing so well into 1916: their pre-war army was mostly intact relative to the other armies and that is why the Somme was so damaging, as it wiped out the pre-war cadres left.
 

Zheng He

For what it is worth there is a recent book out on this. I was disappointed with the book. It was too short and I think he portrayed the British as too indifferent to the potential of a German victory.

The POD is simple - the Kaiser has a moment of strategic insight shortly before the war kicks off and orders no invasion of Belgium, defend against France, and go all in against Russia.

http://www.amazon.com/Gray-Tide-Hel...qid=1395789592&sr=8-2&keywords=gray+tide+east
 

miketr

Lets say that Russia losses much less troops than historic, not a given but whatever. It still doesn't deal with the fact that they can't mobilize their manpower and they can't properly equip the manpower that they can. If the war goes on long enough you still end up with men going into battle with orders to pickup a rifle from the dead sent ahead.

Michael
 

miketr

Zheng He said:
For what it is worth there is a recent book out on this. I was disappointed with the book. It was too short and I think he portrayed the British as too indifferent to the potential of a German victory.

The POD is simple - the Kaiser has a moment of strategic insight shortly before the war kicks off and orders no invasion of Belgium, defend against France, and go all in against Russia.

http://www.amazon.com/Gray-Tide-Hel...qid=1395789592&sr=8-2&keywords=gray+tide+east
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Book was OK for what it was but yes it was flawed.

Michael
 

herricks

i had another thought. If Germany didn't declare war on France but just on Russia making France become the aggressor in the west could that keep Italy allied to Germany & enter against France?

If I remember right Italy's reason for not initially entering with its allies was it said that their alliance was defensive.
 
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