germany fails to conquer norway

Driftless

Donor
This is true. The German military attaché to Sweden, von Bethman-Hollweg threatened Sweden with a German declaration of war over the plan to send two Swedish divisions as "volunteers" to Finland in February 1940.

(snip)

I'd bet the Swedish military leaders had "what if" German, Soviet and Allied possible attacks during 1940. The Swedes were caught between the proverbial "rock and a hard spot" and without benefit of the hindsight we have, they wouldn't want to poke any sleeping lions, tigers, or bears.
 
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Driftless

Donor
I've lost track of the mention of the Renown encountering the Narvik bound force. If it had happened, the German destroyers loaded with soldiers (with accompanying transports in train) aren't likely to press an attack on a fast moving ship like the Renown in those rough seas. I'd think that at the very least, the Renown gets a few salvos off before the destroyers scatter. Any transports are likely lost. With those invasion troop carrying destroyers scattered, what happens at Narvik?
  • If the invasion force is disrupted/damaged before the assault, they probably need time to re-group.
  • If that encounter between the RN & KM information is shared with the Norwegians, then the Eidsvold & Norge are more prepared, rather than being immediately torpedoed at the close of the OTL parley with the Germans. Again, at the least, more disruption to the assault.
  • If the Norwegian Navy has put up a fight, it's more difficult for the local Norwegian Army commander in Narvik to surrender the port out of hand without a fight. Any delay in developing a beachhead gives the capable Norwegian area commander - General Carl Fleischer - time to get himself to Narvik, or move more of his forces back from near the Finnish and Russian borders. OTL, Fleischer's Norwegians and the Poles and French drove the surviving Germans from Narvik to near the Swedish border.
If the port of Narvik is denied to the German's, and with the Kriegsmarine pretty beat up, as in OTL; how much does that change the strategic demands of the invasion as a whole?
 
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Driftless

Donor
One more opinion....
If Norway goes better for the Allies, then Chamberlain likely continues as PM for the time being. If the Battle of France becomes a disaster, then maybe Chamberlain gets the boot, though the diplomatic and military fallout would be different than OTL. My bet is that Churchill still emerges as the leading candidate. If Chamberlain remains PM till his failing health knocks him out, I don't have a reasonable guess on who takes his place.
 
So RN forces in the south might have been able to ambush the Germans.

Perhaps. We'd need a lot more info on the nature of the overcast. Reconissance pilots don't fly pointlessly at a set altitude or course if its obviously not working. They would try to get under the overcast. Of course no one wants to fly into the water under 'grey out' conditions in the clouds or rain haze.
 
1) Danish commanding general had outguessed the German intentions knowing full well that they were going for Aalborg Airfield... an infantry battalion was placed some thirty kilometers to the north of it and on the ewe of invasion one AA-battery, the most experienced one was ordered to be ready for redeployment all limbered up and ready for moving only to be told to go back into position. Even on 8. April these two units could have been ordered to Aalborg to guard the Airfield.

Well, the problem is that the government issued orders for a ceasefire and for all units to contact the germans to arrange surrender at 06:00 (specifically citing the risk of a Warsaw style bombing of Copenhagen), and the first faldschirmsjägers dropped at Ålborg 06:15 and the transports a little later.
Now it took a couple of hours for the order to reach all units, but that was mostly infantry units in Southern Jutland already engaged and generally out of contact, local command at Ålborg would have received the order by radio well before the germans arrived.


Another thought is what might have happened had the danisk government allowed preparations to be made for a proper defense, such as preparation for demolitions of bridges, establishing bunkers and trenches in defensible locations on lines of approach etc or followed up on the various proposals to build up a rapid mobilisation force or enlarge the army etc
Now none of that will stop a determined, well supported german attack, or even hold the current attack for long, however Weserübung was always a sideshow because the Kriegsmarine wanted bases in Norway and to secure swedish iron ore.
If it was clear to the germans that it would take several days to secure Denmark and the airfield at Ålborg and/or much larger forces would be needed the whole operation might be scrubbed...
 
I've lost track of the mention of the Renown encountering the Narvik bound force. If it had happened, the German destroyers loaded with soldiers (with accompanying transports in train) aren't likely to press an attack on a fast moving ship like the Renown in those rough seas. I'd think that at the very least, the Renown gets a few salvos off before the destroyers scatter. Any transports are likely lost. With those invasion troop carrying destroyers scattered, what happens at Narvik?
  • If the invasion force is disrupted/damaged before the assault, they probably need time to re-group.
  • If that encounter between the RN & KM information is shared with the Norwegians, then the Eidsvold & Norge are more prepared, rather than being immediately torpedoed at the close of the OTL parley with the Germans. Again, at the least, more disruption to the assault.
  • If the Norwegian Navy has put up a fight, it's more difficult for the local Norwegian Army commander in Narvik to surrender the port out of hand without a fight. Any delay in developing a beachhead gives the capable Norwegian area commander - General Carl Fleischer - time to get himself to Narvik, or move more of his forces back from near the Finnish and Russian borders. OTL, Fleischer's Norwegians and the Poles and French drove the surviving Germans from Narvik to near the Swedish border.
If the port of Narvik is denied to the German's, and with the Kriegsmarine pretty beat up, as in OTL; how much does that change the strategic demands of the invasion as a whole?

There wasn't any transports going for Narvik; those were already in position in the area when the destroyers arrived. However the destroyers lost most of the heavy weapons due to the hard weather including the artillery which was why a squadron of ju-52's were loaded with a battery and flown off on a one way mission.
 
Well, the problem is that the government issued orders for a ceasefire and for all units to contact the germans to arrange surrender at 06:00 (specifically citing the risk of a Warsaw style bombing of Copenhagen), and the first faldschirmsjägers dropped at Ålborg 06:15 and the transports a little later.
Now it took a couple of hours for the order to reach all units, but that was mostly infantry units in Southern Jutland already engaged and generally out of contact, local command at Ålborg would have received the order by radio well before the germans arrived.

The German gift to mankind the introduction of "summer time" has mislead a lot of peoples regarding Operation Weserübung. The Germans jumped off at 6.15 German summer time which was equal to 5.15 Danish time!!! If you read up a little on the events unfolding you'd at one time discover the discrepancy. Took me some time but thats it.
The Danish commander at Aaborg airport would have his hands full when the Fallschirmjägers would drop upon him. Even if understrength he would command an infantry battalion and quite possibly an experienced AA-battery. Of course the follow-up force of an infantry battalion will be something different but they still have to get their feet on the ground while being shot at.
When the Ju-52s that aborted the dropping of Fallschirmjägers at Fornebu and landing of infantry battalions drone in on Aalborg they'll get a nasty surprise.

Another thought is what might have happened had the danisk government allowed preparations to be made for a proper defense, such as preparation for demolitions of bridges, establishing bunkers and trenches in defensible locations on lines of approach etc or followed up on the various proposals to build up a rapid mobilisation force or enlarge the army etc
Now none of that will stop a determined, well supported german attack, or even hold the current attack for long, however Weserübung was always a sideshow because the Kriegsmarine wanted bases in Norway and to secure swedish iron ore.
If it was clear to the germans that it would take several days to secure Denmark and the airfield at Ålborg and/or much larger forces would be needed the whole operation might be scrubbed...

Government wouldn't do so in a million years! The only possible way out is the commanding general acting on his own and taking the rap.
Now if Stauning had followed his hunch in 1934-35 and changed politics...
If you only go with whats available in 1940 the Germans might not discover whats going on getting a real surprise. The Germans didn't get all their intel in the right place; they were probably aware that during 1938 exercises airunits had deployed to the vicinity of Esberg hence their attack on the AA-battery on neutrality watch there (this was the battery that should have been deployed to Aalborg - at least it was ordered to limber up during 8. April 1940 but then ordered back into position). The un-manned Masnedø fortress was another.
 
Those airfields at Aalborg, Denmark were a lynchpin for the Norway portion of the operation. They were the staging areas for the parachutists and for the Bf-110's attacking Norway. Any delay in taking those airfieds and the para's can't make their attack on time, nor do the Germans have functioning fighter cover over Norway during the opening phase of the attack. The para's role was to take the paved airports at Sola and Fornebu, which the Luftwaffe needed for their own beachhead. Still, the Norwegians probably need to prevent the seizure of both, not just one of the airports.

The Norwegians had strung pianowire across the Sola airfield to try prevent aicraft from landing; the para's dropped there cleared the runway.
At Fornebu it was pure determination and luck of the fuel-low Bf-110's landing and keeping the defenders off with the observerguns and then Ju-52's touching down with part of the para force.
 
Here's a question--

If the invasion of Norway fails with heavy casualties for the Germans, and Fall Gelb is thereby postponed or cancelled, could the Anglo-French have executed Operation Pike?

Operation Pike was an Anglo-French plan to use bombers stationed in the Middle East to strike at Soviet oil production facilities in the Caucasus region.

When the Germans invaded France and the Low Countries, the French airbase in Syria needed to sustain their side of the operations was just days out from completion.

Do you think Pike would have been executed had it not been for Fall Gelb? How would it damage the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany in the short-term? What would be the long-term (within the scope of the conflict) effects on the war?
 
On top of Cook's excellent analysis I would like to add that the creditability of not only Hitler but any suggestion for yet another daring operation will be seriously reduced if Norway is a defeat. The attack on Norway was in itself a daring operation not tried in WWI and if not only the Kriegsmarine but also a significant number of troops are lost with no gain it will be much more difficult to introduce yet another daring plan - like the OTL fall Gelb. And even if Fall Gelb is launched the most daring parts of it, like Guderian's and Rommel's race for the Channel are much less likely to happen.

All in all I think a failed attack on Norway is enough to have the Germans bog down in France, and that is enough to have Germany loose the war.

I don't see that. Norway was a sideshow, and the Allies had an overwhelming advantage in that theater (naval strength, if they had used it). FALL GELB is on land, and warships have no wheels.

Besides which, by the time of WESERUBUNG, FALL GELB is already mostly prepared.
 

Driftless

Donor
I don't see that. Norway was a sideshow, and the Allies had an overwhelming advantage in that theater (naval strength, if they had used it). FALL GELB is on land, and warships have no wheels.

Besides which, by the time of WESERUBUNG, FALL GELB is already mostly prepared.

What would be the impact on the invasion of the Belgium & The Netherlands if more of the parachute troops & the Ju-52's were lost in Norway?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
I think we will see the Lion and Malta classes being commissioned, because the battle of Atlantic (and even the Battle of Britain) would have been much favorable for the Brits, lower ship losses mean more spare capacity to continue these shipbuilding programs. Additionally, losing the supply of Swedish high-quality iron ore would have been disastrous for the German.
 

Driftless

Donor
Additionally, losing the supply of Swedish high-quality iron ore would have been disastrous for the German.

This topic has been debated on other threads and one of the recurring ideas I've seen, is that in the short term, losing the cold weather ore-shipping point of Narvik would cause problems for the Germans. However, they would (and did) adapt by having the Swedes stockpile ore at an all weather port further south. Not as economically efficient, but workable. In OTL, the port of Narvik and the railway to Sweden were pretty beat up after several rounds of fighting.
 
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What would be the impact on the invasion of the Belgium & The Netherlands if more of the parachute troops & the Ju-52's were lost in Norway?

Probably not that much. The Fallschirmjagers were not effective in the Netherlands. The capture of Eben Emael was spectacular, but it was not in the key area, the Ardennes. And there would probably be enough of them left to do that operation.
 
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