Germany Ducks out of WWI

How about Hungary? Remember than the Croats, Slovenes, Bosniaks Czechs, and Galicians of all colours had nothing in particular against the Hapbsburgs. If anything is going to end A-H, it will be a breakdown of the dual monarchy system.



Serbia and Romania were not part of the Hapsburg realm, only members of the same ethnic groups. Why will the nationalists prevail? Any particular reason?



Why not?




GAAAAAAAAH!!!

Yes, of course we'll just kick out the ancient Sultan and Commander of the Faithful, ruler of an Ottoman realm which is springing back from the Balkan wars and, with the discovery of oil reserves in its southern provinces, is probably booming, over nebulous "economic mismanagement". And then we'll have this make Turkey completely unable to defend their own capital and see off the notoriously efficient, well-equipped, and motivated Russian army. Oh, and Britain just stopped caring about the balance of power in the Balkans and ME, apparently.



GAAAAAAAH!!!

Okay, seriously, why is Europe suddenly fated to turn red, except of course Russia. Also, for a given value of take, Social Democrats had already taken over Germany.



Anti-what-nows? I don't think anybody was keen on Tsarist absolutism, except maybe the Tsar and his family.

Okay, having finished GAAAHing, my own thoughts. Presumably the premise is "WW1 as we know it, Germany decides not to risk it all". Borderline ASB, but yeah. All else being the same, we end up with Austria accepting Serbia's deal on the ultimatum and things staying fairly stable. There are plenty of other catastrophes waiting to happen, but with Germany becoming strangely pacfist, a great many can be defused. If I go further I'll have to get into genuine ASB territory.

The A-H empire won't go on any further than the 30's because of the rise of liberilisum and nationalisum. Nationlist uprising and guerilla wars have to be put down by the army, big problem as that is in desperate need of re-form; the only thing holding it together in peace is the kadets, let alone when you have uprisings left right and center.

Britain will intervene in Turkey for exactly that reason! to stop Russian influence, perhaps see the Russians gain Western armenia etc, Britains make gains in palistine etc and Sultan replaced with republic.

There were plenty of people who supported the Tsar (pre WW1) especialy in the military and the Church.

Yeah your probably right about the socialists etc, they were only so prominent during the post WW1 depression years (defeats the idea of the scenario as there was no war)
 
How about a *totally* different approach?
Is this plausible?
The world war takes place outside of Europe.
The colonial powers are fighting over their colonies.
In this TL, Germany doesn't have all that many overseas colonies, so it isn't involved in the war.
They sell their colonies to somebody else.

For example...and this isn't necessarily the most likely permutation...

The natives in Britain's colonies rebel and side with France.
The natives in France's colonies rebel and side with the Dutch.
The natives in Holland's colonies rebel and side with the Spanish.
The natives in Spain's colonies rebel and side with the British.

The natives in territories held by the Russians, Ottomans, Italians and Greeks also rebel and side with other groups. So everybody's fighting everybody in the colonies and Europe gets left alone...?

Colonies in South America and the Pacific also get attacked, so the US invokes the Monroe Doctrine. Is Japan likely to invade US Pacific territories in this period? Is China likely to? (If the POD is a few years, or decades, back).
 
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That is why, notwithstanding the Austro-Hungarian and Serbian responsibilities, in all threads about "who's the culprit for WWI", a certain Central-European nation gets nominated rather often. Its fans then start complaining and ranting, saying that there's people out for poor peace-loving Germany, but this question, and your answer, are the explanation.

IOW, if Germany "ducks out" of WWI - is there a WWI at all?

The problem is that this certain central european nation shares borders with the two main entente powers, and was the chief supporter of Austro-Hungary. No matter what Germany's motives are, if they declare war on anybody it becomes a general european war. If they do not, there is no WW1.
 
The Road to Hell is Walked One Good Decision at a Time!

In order for this thread to be possible, one of several possibilities need to have occurred - Friedrich III doesn't die of throat cancer and lives to the same ripe old age as his father, William I (1797 to 1888); OR as someone else on this board noted, Friedrich III goes to his bedchamber an hour later in March of 1858, and a different Wilhelm II is conceived, perhaps one without the burning need to show up his English cousins, more willing to concentrate on learning statecraft, and less driven by rash impulse.

Either way, the issue isn't so much what happens in the summer of 1914 (by then the die is cast), but rather what leads up to that time frame ... the actions that make others view the new Reich in a different light, and by their actions (or lack thereof) influence the politics in Berlin.

Perhaps ... A smaller navy - in tune with British understanding of what a Deutsche Reich needs as a Kriegs Marine - Defense of the North Sea coast, hegemony in the Baltic, and several smaller squadrons to protect the East and West African coasts around the colonies, and a Far East Squadron for the Pacific.

Perhaps ... A regular Census to re-apportion both Prussian and Federal representative chambers to reflect the huge growth in the western provinces against the traditional heartland - Brandenburg and Ost Preussen.

Perhaps ... A strategic understanding of the need to keep the English as close friends if not actual allies (keep your friends close, and your enemies closer!).

Perhaps ... As well as a strategic understanding that while A-H may be a nation ruled by German speaking compatriots, Das KuK Reich can't keep the polyglot amalgam from eventually splintering, putting the II Reich in Berlin in a position to absorb (by plebiscite or otherwise) the German speaking portions on the old HRE = Oesterreich, Sudeten, Schlesien, Burgland, Kaernten. The Iron Chancellor understood that and gave them a bloody nose in 1866, which produced the crisis that led to the Ausgleich. Austria was not Germany's most necessary ally, England was.

Perhaps ... Saner action by the Far East Squadron in Manila Bay, the Phillipines in 1898 in Manila Bay during Dewey's arrival.

Perhaps ... Less gleeful (and monetary) support of the Boers in 1899/1901.

Perhaps ... Saner action in Morocco in 1905.

Perhaps ... An understanding that this von Moltke was not his uncle. This might result in the formulation of an alternative, defense oriented, plan to tie up the French in the Vosges mountains (hills) was looked at. The Heer had observers in Manchuria and witnessed the effective Russian use of new weapons (MGs) against the Japanese who stormed Mukden and other strongholds. The Japanese were appalled at the losses they suffered in charging prepared Russian defenses. What was necessary was a mind like Guderian's who could see the potential impact of new weapons (repeating rifles, MGs, etc., in this case, not armor) on the traditional strategies of the past.

All of these are actions that, taken together, prevent the rapprochement of England and France in the same time period. By the time of the First War, England had actually accepted protection of the French Channel Ports as its duty! This freed the French Navy to move those assets to the MittleMeer to protect convoys of supplies and men from Algeria.

Hmmmm ... what might have been???!!

But then I wouldn't be here in New York, with a Bronze Star for my Vietnam service hanging on my wall, but back in Hessen most likely, doing who knows what.

BEP
 
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If Germany had not signed the blank cheque for the Austrians Serbia would, as it deserved, have been deeply humiliated but it would not have suffered an actual invasion.
Why did they deserve to be humiliated?... and anyway they would just have accepted Serbia's 19 of the 20 points, which was certinally not humiliating.

The A-H empire won't go on any further than the 30's because of the rise of liberilisum and nationalisum. Nationlist uprising and guerilla wars have to be put down by the army, big problem as that is in desperate need of re-form; the only thing holding it together in peace is the kadets, let alone when you have uprisings left right and center.
What is the apparent belife that A-H was going to break up? :confused:

Even towards the latter years of the Great War, the ethnic populations only wanted more autonomy and not independance and that was after years of war...

I guess if the UK had been defeated and then a third power, the US for example, had forced Scotland, England, Wales and Ireland apart, then we would be tlking abou the disolution of the UK being inevitable by the 1930's due to the rise of liberilisum and nationalisum?
 
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