Germany does USW in 1916 (instead of 1915)

Lets say Germany first does unrestricted submarine warfare in 1916 instead of 1915.

(Perhaps a POD is that the Germans do a little better on the surface in early 1915, avoid Dogger Bank, etc. and are focused on surface action a few months longer, then they start winning on the east front so they think they can delay).

Questions:

1) If the Germans did USW in 1916 and stuck with it consistently until the war ended, is it a war winner.

2) If the Germans avoided a Lusitania incident in 1915 and didn't do any stupid Zimmerman telegrams and such stunts would the USA still enter eventually with USW starting in 1916.
 
But with better initial surprise of USW in 1916 (with more boats available) could better results be achieved?

Presumably the wolf pack is the answer to convoys, could by doing ASW longer the Germans figure this tactic out?
 
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