Germany does..... nothing!

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So what if Germany soes nothing after they occupied the Czech republic.No war against Poland or anybody else? Can the Reich survive economically?What if Germany does nothing after the fall of France? No attack against Britain with palnes and Uboats - Germany shhots down planes that bomb Germany but does not send any planes and behaves absolutely passive.Do the Brits loose interest in this "war"?
 
Can the Reich survive economically?

The simple answer for all of this is right in the above question. Nazi Germany was economically dependent on the resources gained from conquest. They took over countries, then used the resources to rebuild for the next conquest. The economy was unsustainable and would have collapsed if they stopped for too long.
 
And Hitler needed an external enemy to stay in power. Antisemitism was not enough. So without a war the Nazi regime would have fallen much sooner than in OTL.
 
If Germany does nothing in August 1939, it would have to scale back its military spending, probably meaning unemployment and recession, perhaps meaning the end of the Nazi regime. War is an easier choice for Hitler, especially if you can convince yourself all your enemies are worthless and weak.

If in July 1940, Germany adopts a completly defensive stance, expect Britain to pick on Italy and Vichy to the extent Germany lets them get away with it. Britain would get stronger relative to Germany over time and might start bombing Germany anyway. To pull this off in July 40, Germany would have to offer reasonable terms to France, Belgium, Holland, Norway, Denmark, if they all agree to a reasonable peace (1914 boundries let say, no colonies for Germany) it might be hard politically for Britain to stay in the war forever if reasonable security for Britain existed in the post war.
 
So what if Germany soes nothing after they occupied the Czech republic.

Germany scales back military production and puts it into domestic production. I don't see why this would result in a catastrophe. German industry was more than capable of building cars instead of tanks, machine tools rather than guns. If they do not plan to fight a major war there is less need for an economy which is capable of operating more or less in complete isolation. Some liberalisation over imports and exports would do the economy a world of good, and while such might seem unlikely in the short term I am unconvinced Hitler and co were ideologically wedded to an economic theory. The Nazis were phenomenally concerned with public opinion, perhaps more so than any previous government, so if there is a dip in the regimes popularity you can expect them to prime the pumps like any modern democratic government.

On the whole Germany's population is the richer and happier for it. Hitler retires or dies in office while retaining considerable popularity. This popularity is challenged, and possibly overturned, by historians of later generations. On the otherhand since without the war there is a chance fascist regimes would continue within Europe even this is unclear.
 
Germany scales back military production and puts it into domestic production. I don't see why this would result in a catastrophe.

It might work if you had an Adenauer running things, I wonder if the Nazi regime is just too incompetent to make a peacetime economy work long term.
 

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Germany scales back military production and puts it into domestic production. I don't see why this would result in a catastrophe. German industry was more than capable of building cars instead of tanks, machine tools rather than guns. If they do not plan to fight a major war there is less need for an economy which is capable of operating more or less in complete isolation. Some liberalisation over imports and exports would do the economy a world of good, and while such might seem unlikely in the short term I am unconvinced Hitler and co were ideologically wedded to an economic theory. The Nazis were phenomenally concerned with public opinion, perhaps more so than any previous government, so if there is a dip in the regimes popularity you can expect them to prime the pumps like any modern democratic government.

On the whole Germany's population is the richer and happier for it. Hitler retires or dies in office while retaining considerable popularity. This popularity is challenged, and possibly overturned, by historians of later generations. On the otherhand since without the war there is a chance fascist regimes would continue within Europe even this is unclear.

Incompetent Nazis for one. Also this flies in the face of everything that Germany had been planning up until that point, so it requires a major POD for Germany to stop pushing for war.
As it was Germany would take a major economic hit during the conversion process, so unemployment would skyrocket again. Germany had exhausted her stores of imported resources and was out of foreign exchange, so would not be able to tide herself over by foreign buying.
The most important factor is that of foreign trade; Germany was not competitive economically because she refused to debase her currency to make it more attractive to foreign consumers. Germany was priced out of the consumer market and knew it. Not only that, but with tariffs Germany as already behind the cost-effective 8-ball. Essentially Germany required foreign trade because her internal markets had collapsed; no one had money to buy all that Germany made, so someone outside needed to to rebuild German wealth.
That was the whole point of war: Germany was relegated to 2nd-tier economic status as a middle size workshop without war. The nation was even worse off in the late 1930's-1940's because she had bad economic policy, no one was willing to buy what she had to offer, and the deck was purposely stacked against her by her recent enemies because they did not want the competition.
 
So what if Germany soes nothing after they occupied the Czech republic.No war against Poland or anybody else? Can the Reich survive economically?

The reason the Reich had economic problems was because Hitler was preparing for war. The scale of rearmament was greater than what the German economy at that time could handle. That was creating lots of problems. If Hitler isn't preparing for war, much of reason for needing plunder from conquered countries disappears. He can reduce military spending and adopt a more rational economic policy. The German economy will do fine then after a bit of transition.

What if Germany does nothing after the fall of France? No attack against Britain with palnes and Uboats - Germany shhots down planes that bomb Germany but does not send any planes and behaves absolutely passive.Do the Brits loose interest in this "war"?

You only need one country to start a war, but you need at least two if you want to make peace. After Hitler broke his promises at Munich, no one can trust him anymore. Britain is committed to war, especially under Churchill.

Bombing raids will still be done, and it would be very unpopular for Hitler to allow the British to bomb German cities without any reprisals. Furthermore, you still have Italy in the war, and the British will be fighting them. For the Germans to do nothing would be politically impossible, both at home and with their allies.
 
Incompetent Nazis for one. Also this flies in the face of everything that Germany had been planning up until that point, so it requires a major POD for Germany to stop pushing for war.
As it was Germany would take a major economic hit during the conversion process, so unemployment would skyrocket again. Germany had exhausted her stores of imported resources and was out of foreign exchange, so would not be able to tide herself over by foreign buying.
The most important factor is that of foreign trade; Germany was not competitive economically because she refused to debase her currency to make it more attractive to foreign consumers. Germany was priced out of the consumer market and knew it. Not only that, but with tariffs Germany as already behind the cost-effective 8-ball. Essentially Germany required foreign trade because her internal markets had collapsed; no one had money to buy all that Germany made, so someone outside needed to to rebuild German wealth.
That was the whole point of war: Germany was relegated to 2nd-tier economic status as a middle size workshop without war. The nation was even worse off in the late 1930's-1940's because she had bad economic policy, no one was willing to buy what she had to offer, and the deck was purposely stacked against her by her recent enemies because they did not want the competition.

I agree that doing nothing means Hitler repudiates his entire foreign policy, and is therefore not realistic.

However, if we accept the POD as a thought experiment, I think we can see that the economy can start making sense again in peacetime.

Germany has lots of economic advantages. It is a world leader in chemicals, machine tools, precision instruments, engineering, and lots of other high value goods. If production is not shunted into the military, Germany instead has lots of valuable export goods it can use to pay for natural resources and other imports.

It would be best to ultimately get rid of the export-import controls and allow currency exchange again along with many other reforms that many economists were telling Hitler to do. Hitler didn't listen because he was planning on war and therefore had a totally different goal than what the economists wanted.

The advantages of the German economy in highly skilled workforce, a world leader in science, engineering prowess, and dominance in many fields simply doesn't go away. Germany is not going to be a second tier economy. It is always going to be a first tier economy. There will probably be some transition cost, but by 1940 the world was recovering from the Depression anyway.

Of course, a lot depends on how you think the Nazis will manage the economy. But I think it's important to point out that many of the problems were self-inflicted precisely because Hitler knew he was going to war in a very short time. If he mysteriously decides against that for some reason (which I accept is not realistic), there's no reason to think all those bad decisions will remain.
 
So what if Germany soes nothing after they occupied the Czech republic.No war against Poland or anybody else? Can the Reich survive economically?What if Germany does nothing after the fall of France? No attack against Britain with palnes and Uboats - Germany shhots down planes that bomb Germany but does not send any planes and behaves absolutely passive.Do the Brits loose interest in this "war"?


germany was bankrupted... so they had to go to war
if not hitlers regime crash... so either hitler is braindead (okay, this could be) or he is removed by sane people who hope to end his terror regime...

Hitler have to attack or he crash his economy... that is a fact
 
Nazi Germany fed off of invasions. Each new conquest fed the Nazi warmachine, and without an external threat, there would be no Nazi war machine.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Just to point out that while indeed the proposed policy change is very much un-Hitlerlike, the OP says nothing about post-Munich Germany having him, or even the Nazi regime, at the helm. Good old Adolf was far from immortal in 1938-39, and as a matter of fact there is a nice juicy PoD just after Munich to remove him from the scene. On October 9, 1938, have Maurice Bavaud be on the right side of the street, in a good position to shoot Hitler. A lucky bullet perforates Hitler's heart, and he's alt-history.

The plausible successors (Goring and the Heer) were much more afraid than him to start a general war with the Entente or the USSR, and they won't do it without him in charge to give the order. If the choice is between a general war to plunder wealth from foreign states and redressing German economy by scaling down rearmament, they shall in all likelihood pick the latter. Breakneck rearmament was not necessary anyway if Barbarossa is not meant within a few years. Post-Munich CZS stays a formally independent German client state since the new leadership won't alienate the Entente by betraying Munich.

It just somewhat difficult to see why Germany does nothing against Poland, since to recover Danzig and the Corridor was a deeply felt aspiration of the German people. And with no German invasion of CZS, there shall be no British military guarantee of Poland, and in all likelihood, Entente willingness to make Munich II for Danzig and the Corridor. But perhaps the economic adjustment is enough to keep the new German leadership focused on domestic matters, and/or Poland is driven to accept German demands by lack of Entente support, and Germany gets back Danzig and a favorable settlement for the Corridor by peaceful means.
 
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The real question is if Stalin starts acting billigerent toward Poland that Germany can get Poland to come around to joining the Axis for a war against the Soviet's come the summer of 1940.

Waiting until 1943 or 1944 could be quite bad as the Red Army by then would be a military force with enough tanks and troops to take all of Europe.
 
Wasn't Germany one of the biggest economies at that time? comparable to the US (not yet into the big economic boom).

Germany had not yet changed across to war economy. I read somewhere that consumer goods production increased in 1939/40/41. Can;t find the reference and I could be wrong.

Sure enough. To carry on with the increase in arms productin would require continuous conquests. But if the war sort of fizzled after 1940 (no barbarosa), Germany could have been the super power of its day. Having access to all Western Europe's resources would not be too bad.

However, would (and could) Hitler settle for peace after 1940 and before Barbaros?

Ivan
 
Wasn't Germany one of the biggest economies at that time? comparable to the US (not yet into the big economic boom).

No.
The german economy was about the same size as Britains (with a higher percentage of manufactiring), let alone the British Empire.
It was the biggest one on mainland Europe, die to the population, but the productivity wasnt good
 
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