Germany does not reconciliate with Austria

What would happen, if after Sadowa and the Austro-Prussian war, North German Confederation keeps very bad relationships with Austria ? How would it affect history ?
 
If this happens, Italy would never betray Germany, because they are too much hungry about Trentino and Dalmatia.
I agree that Italy would be hostile towards the France-UK-Austria alliance, but i doubt that they'd be so eager to join Germany in case of war. They'd be threatened on three fronts - France from the Alps and Corsica, Austria from Trentino and Istria, and Britain from the south in Malta.
 
I agree that Italy would be hostile towards the France-UK-Austria alliance, but i doubt that they'd be so eager to join Germany in case of war. They'd be threatened on three fronts - France from the Alps and Corsica, Austria from Trentino and Istria, and Britain from the south in Malta.

So an Angritaly and a Tsarkaiser alliance against Englo-Franco-Austrian alliance. I guess the sparkling of WWI would be the same, Serbian stuff and everything. Who do you think would win ?
 
I agree that Italy would be hostile towards the France-UK-Austria alliance, but i doubt that they'd be so eager to join Germany in case of war. They'd be threatened on three fronts - France from the Alps and Corsica, Austria from Trentino and Istria, and Britain from the south in Malta.

Then again Austria-Hungary in this scenario is threatened all around and barely in a position to start offensive moves. All neighbors except Switzerland and maybe Montenegro have territorial ambitions aimed at A-H. (and the OTL Schweizer Volkspartei wouldn't mind getting Vorarlberg which is ASB for us but should there be an All-You-Can-Eat Buffet with Austria-Hungary as the main course then we'd never know...)
 
Do you think France, Austria and England would still be one camp ? If this happens, Italy would never betray Germany, because they are too much hungry about Trentino and Dalmatia. Would the bolcheviks and mancheviks still uprise ?

The British joined the Entente due to German Naval power growing somewhat. So if the butterflies do not affect Wilhelm II Naval ambition they still join.

Italy has now every reason to join Germany. They can desire Corsica, Nice, Annecy from the French as well.

The Great war however will be different. In such case, I feel that Austria(-Hungary) might give in to pressure from three sides and retreat back to Austria South of the Danube and the Carpathian mountains. And then then the French are kinda... screwed.
 
So an Angritaly and a Tsarkaiser alliance against Englo-Franco-Austrian alliance. I guess the sparkling of WWI would be the same, Serbian stuff and everything. Who do you think would win ?

There is still the Russo-Turkish war in 1877. Assuming that goes as OTL, Austro-Hungarians might still go for Bosnia then yes, Serbia might be the trouble.

And is such case, A-H is kinda screwed. Germany might even wait for crossing Belgium until finishing off the A-H.
 
I agree that Italy would be hostile towards the France-UK-Austria alliance, but i doubt that they'd be so eager to join Germany in case of war. They'd be threatened on three fronts - France from the Alps and Corsica, Austria from Trentino and Istria, and Britain from the south in Malta.
I agree. The main reason for the Triple Alliance was Italy's fear of French reprisal for their double handed dealings unifying Italy and t taking over papal lands w hick Napoleon III and post Franco-Prussian War France dod not look favorably on. They do not have the military power to fight on so many fronts even if they had Ge man alliance to keep French and Austrians at bay. British naval power and potential in Asian of Sicily an southern Italy could possibly be of sufficient force to bet Italy.

Russian military forces could be of help against Austria on land, but The Austrians may not need to worry abut its southern borders against Italy who would be more concerned with its common border with France and the British to their south. An additional possible alliance with the Ottomans could help keep Russia in check as well, giving the British and French land and sea access to Russia's southern border via the Dardanelles and the Black Sea.
 
Frankly at this point a German-Russian alliance would be enough to keep France,Austria, the Ottomans and even the UK at bay, Russia could provide a myriad of resources to Germany, most importantly food and also create such a long border for Austria that I think would make them collapse quite quickly, especially if Germany is pretty quick, if Austria falls I'm sure Italy would join them as well.
 
Then again Austria-Hungary in this scenario is threatened all around and barely in a position to start offensive moves. All neighbors except Switzerland and maybe Montenegro have territorial ambitions aimed at A-H. (and the OTL Schweizer Volkspartei wouldn't mind getting Vorarlberg which is ASB for us but should there be an All-You-Can-Eat Buffet with Austria-Hungary as the main course then we'd never know...)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vorarlberg#History
Stranger things have happened. And I imagine Montenegro would have wanted to get what it did IOTL. Basically being the southeast third of the former Republic of Ragusa.
 
I wonder how a Russo-German Alliance switches things around in Europe. Will the Ottomans make an agreement with the France-UK-Austria Alliance, due to their resentment over the Russians imposing so many straits treaties on them and ogling at their territories?
If this happens, then one can surely count the Balkan states going over to Russia and Germany.
However, if the breakup of the Austro-German agreement and alignment with Russia happens before 1877, then i can see Germany supporting Bulgaria's immodest territorial claims at San Stefano, which could result in Serbia and Greece taking a more neutral stance.
 
Last edited:
The kings of Romania will no longer have to choose between familial ties and Transylvania ambitions, could mean a much earlier entry and as much as it is easy to say Italy will stay out because that's the smart thing to do are the Italians really going to be able to just sit there and risk having the Russians, Germans, romanians and Serbs leaving nothing left for them?
 
Wait. If Austria remains deeply hostile to the NGC, she is likely to intervene in the Franco-Prussian war, causing Russia, and probably Italy as well, to enter on the Prussian side. This, of course, if the different diplomatic alignments do not cause Bismarck to rethink his strategy leading to a different approach and perhaps a different war with France (or no war at all).
No way that WWI happens in any way even remotely resembling OTL, as the Austro-German alliance was the cornerstone of the diplomatic setup causing it.
France-Britain-Austria versus Germany-Russia-Italy is, of course, a plausible enough alignment, and one that would have little trouble winning on the continent (colonial theatres are a different matter) but precisely because it is so, a general war like this is not very likely.
 
Wait. If Austria remains deeply hostile to the NGC, she is likely to intervene in the Franco-Prussian war, causing Russia, and probably Italy as well, to enter on the Prussian side. This, of course, if the different diplomatic alignments do not cause Bismarck to rethink his strategy leading to a different approach and perhaps a different war with France (or no war at all).
No way that WWI happens in any way even remotely resembling OTL, as the Austro-German alliance was the cornerstone of the diplomatic setup causing it.
France-Britain-Austria versus Germany-Russia-Italy is, of course, a plausible enough alignment, and one that would have little trouble winning on the continent (colonial theatres are a different matter) but precisely because it is so, a general war like this is not very likely.

I am not sure that she was ready to do it, she might not have been able to rebuild a powerful army in only 4 years ... but as we discussed, Italy is not very likely to join because of the three fronts she might have to endure. Another case that may be interesting is : if the Restauration of 1870 happens (check on the Internet, it was really very close) then Germany is formed, and you have Bourbons, like the Bourbon Parme that might cause some trubles in Italy, and more important like the Borbon of Spain ...
 
Top