Lets say Germany connects the dots on its intel, people believe the "Most Dangerous Enemy" papers, etc.:
a) Figures British fighter production is higher that they thought (they thought too low OTL),
b) Figures its losses in combat vs British fighters will be higher (perhaps even just even losses), and the British get half their pilots back.
c) Figures the ME 110 won't be able to contribute, at least in a day fighter role (people were concerned OTL).
d) Figure even if day superiority is wrested from British, they won't have enough air power to stop the British navy.
e) Figures an air effort launched might just push USA closer to Britain
So the Germans figure it isn't worth trying. What else can they do in that time period that is meaningful????
a) Night bombing only
b) Channel convoy attacks only
b) Browbeat Mussolini into allowing a major German effort in the Med in late 40?
e) Barbarossa in late 40?
f) Move through Spain and or Vichy, invited or if not, just invade to get at Gibraltar.
g) Just focus on Barbarossa 1941 and try to keep the west as quiet as possible.