Germany does not declare war on the Soviet Union

In 1939 Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union signed an non aggresion pact (Molotov-Ribbentrop pact/German-Soviet non agreesion pact/Nazi-Soviet aggresion pact). This lasted from 1939 to 1941 when Germany invaded the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa).

This pact was meant to avoid conflict between the Germans and Soviets. Stalin apparantly trusted Hitler or thought he understood Hitler, and therefore believed that this would keep the peace between them.

In hindsight maybe Stalin should not be so comfortable with this agreement since Germany had earlier broken non aggresion pacts with multiple countries, among them Poland and Denmark. Hitler seem to have invaded pretty much all the countries he signed a non-aggression pact with. So it was more like Hitler will invade, but it will be postponed a bit.

But let's say that in an alternate timeline, Hitler does not declare war on the Soviet Union. What would happen? What would be the butterflies? The butterflies of butterflies?

If Hitler did not invade the Soviet Union would the Soviets also remain dedicated to the Molotoc-Ribbentrop pact? Would Stalin just use the time to build and prepare his own invasion?

Would Germany be better suited to fight against an invasion than to invade itself? Would Germany if invaded by the Soviets be able to later launch an counter invasion?

Would Germany in such a scenario eventually be able to force the British into an agreement?

How would the culture in Europe be affected by the absence of a Soviet German war?

Would the populations of occupied Europe become more compliant to German demands if Germany avoided this large war against the Soviets?
Links:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov–Ribbentrop_Pact
https://www.google.no/search?q=hitl...AUICigB&biw=1517&bih=731#imgrc=xdm1zrO795A1PM:
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-...es/studies/vol50no1/9_BK_What_Stalin_Knew.htm
 

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Hitler's intention was anyway invade USSR sooner or latter so only way avoid this are: Hitler is somehow more reasonable, Hitler dies before Barbarossa, or war in west goes so badly that Hitler can't invade USSR.

But if this not happen, Stalin probably begins his own invasion.
 
In 1939 Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union signed an non aggresion pact (Molotov-Ribbentrop pact/German-Soviet non agreesion pact/Nazi-Soviet aggresion pact). This lasted from 1939 to 1941 when Germany invaded the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa).

This pact was meant to avoid conflict between the Germans and Soviets. Stalin apparantly trusted Hitler or thought he understood Hitler, and therefore believed that this would keept the peace between them.

No Stalin believed it would encourage Hitler to go to war and he hoped that it would turn into a long drawn out slugfest like the Western Front of WWI, thus buying the USSR time to rearm.
 

kernals12

Banned
Hitler believed it was his duty to exterminate or enslave the "racially inferior" slavic peoples and then have the Aryans settle the land. At the very least, you need to get rid of Hitler for this to work.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
You have to make a call here on what Stalin would do. Stalin himself would not know. Does Stalin betray Hitler before it is obvious that Hitler will lose.

  1. If Yes, then the war is much shorter. In 1943 or maybe 1944, Stalin fully rearmed army will attack the Nazi's. The Nazi who have spent a much higher % of their income on air defense will lose within 6 months to the Red Army.
  2. If No, then this war could easily be a stalemate or marginal German win. If Hitler decides not to invade Russia, what does he decide to do? Med Strategy, longer BoB, etc. Then we have to talk about how well it worked.
 

Anchises

Banned
You have to make a call here on what Stalin would do. Stalin himself would not know. Does Stalin betray Hitler before it is obvious that Hitler will lose.

  1. If Yes, then the war is much shorter. In 1943 or maybe 1944, Stalin fully rearmed army will attack the Nazi's. The Nazi who have spent a much higher % of their income on air defense will lose within 6 months to the Red Army.
  2. If No, then this war could easily be a stalemate or marginal German win. If Hitler decides not to invade Russia, what does he decide to do? Med Strategy, longer BoB, etc. Then we have to talk about how well it worked.

1. is just wrong. I thin kit is a common alt-history trope that is not rooted in history.

The divisions that were nearly fully armed according to Soviet plans in 1941 weren't impressive either.

Prior to the transformative experience of the Eastern Front the Red Army was a political army were reliability and not military efficiency was the guiding principle.

It is baffling to me how one could conclude that the Red Army would essentially steamroll the Wehrmacht in a scenario where the advantages they had in OTL are mostly negated.

I don't see how the Red Army of 41 (maybe with a slightly better leadership because they had more time to recover from the purges) could destroy the Wehrmacht in a scenario where the German Reich still has the experienced stock of officers and soldiers that they burned through in OTLs Barbarossa.

Sure the Red Army has more weapons and material than during Barbarossa but given their performance I don't see how they could break well supplied German defense line. Especially now the Soviets have to deal with the railway width problem.

It is not like the Wehrmacht would see no investments ITTL. IOTL the % of the war industry allocated to the Wehrmacht was drastically reduced due to the demands of the air and naval war so we might actually see a similar level of armaments production for the Heer ITTL.

The Wehrmacht has 3 or 4 more years to develop their doctrine and technology without the crippling casualties of the Eastern Front while the Soviets have to rely on outsider knowledge to understand the developments of modern warfare.

In my mind a massive Soviet offensive against a (nearly) full strength Heer in Poland (that favors the high mobility approach of the Heer much better than the battlefields of OTLs Eastern Front) would end in a disaster. The Red Army simply wouldn't be able to use their advantage in numbers and material to a meaningful degree.
 
my view is that Germany could have continued collaboration with USSR had they not dealt away their trading bloc of Poland, Finland, and the Baltics (signing a pact to divide Poland only or possibly include Romania.)

barring that the economics align with ideology to compel an invasion.

(edit - forgot to add link showing the huge trade Nazi regime had built up to replace trading with Soviets, had they been able to retain parts of their new Hanseatic trading bloc they would not have been at Stalin's mercy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi–Soviet_economic_relations_(1934–41))
 
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Deleted member 14881

I mean isn't the whole shtick of Nazism basically turning everything from the German border to the Urals into the New Sparta? Unless, Hitler gets a bout of pragmaticism or gets replaced by a Russophile clone.
 

hammo1j

Donor
Given the premise is an unlikely one as other people point out it was Hitler's purpose to invade the east. I think Stalin will continue to improve his defences and increase his military strength, but will not invade Germany, if they don't look like they're gonna invade him.

Hitler and Mussolini could completely dominate the Mediterranean and the Middle East.

The likelihood is that any form of bomber attacks on them would be repulsed and without United States being in the war Britain at would have to sue for peace.
 
my view is that Germany could have continued collaboration with USSR had they not dealt away their trading bloc of Poland, Finland, and the Baltics (signing a pact to divide Poland only or possibly include Romania.)

barring that the economics align with ideology to compel an invasion.

(edit - forgot to add link showing the huge trade Nazi regime had built up to replace trading with Soviets, had they been able to retain parts of their new Hanseatic trading bloc they would not have been at Stalin's mercy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi–Soviet_economic_relations_(1934–41))

in the book War for Oil by Eichholtz the plan was to control Romanian oilfields, Polish oilfields, and Estonian shale, so they were quickly reduced to only Romanian oil (and roughly half that) the other resources falling under the Soviets.
 
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