Germany defeated before its allies - what happenes to these ?

1943
The Germans concentrate all effort on relieving von Paulus at Stalingrad, and succeed in pushing further east, though barely. Paulus orders a break-out and is then court-martialled and hanged. Following this, axis forces retreat west and then counterattack when the soviets had overextended themselves. The Italian army in Russia is not destroyed (yet).

Tunisia meanwhile is not contested, leading to an early allied win in Africa. However, having avoided the loss of so many men, the Germans and Italians manage to defeat the landings in Sicily.

Citadell is never atempted, and the Soviets grind west at a slower pace.

1944
The allies finally secure Sardinia and Corsica, though plans to land in Italy are canceled to make way for Overlord, which goes ahead succesfully.

Secondary landings take place in S France, and by December, the axis has been pushed to the Alps and the Franco-German border.

More Germans and less Russians means Romania west of the Carpathians is taken only in December. The axis though manage to block the mountain passes.

Mussolini's government, backed by large numbers of German troops present in the country, holds together.

1945
Silezia and the Ruhr are taken by the Soviets and Allies respectively, while Berlin is surrounded and stormed by the Red Army. Hitler commits suicide, and the Germans surrender.

HOWEVER, Fascist Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia and a rump Romania had not yet been occupied. What effects does this have on the post-war world ?
 
They all surrender to the allies a few minutes after Germany falls. The Theeran/Ialta agrements are implemented, and allied forces move rapidly to seize their respective areas of influence.
 
I think it might depend upon whether the Allies are still demanding unconditional surrender. I would see the coup against Mussolini occurring no later than the German surrender and probably in 1943. Mussolini’s downfall was primarily caused by internal Italian issues especially food storages. Turning to Hungary remember that they tried to surrender to the Western Allies in early 1944. Would they have been able to survive I doubt it. Stalin would invade. I think the same is true of Slovakia although the Slovaks might try to seek rescue as part of a reconstructed Czechoslovakia. If the western powers control Prague then the reformation of Czechoslovakia might stand a chance. Otherwise the Russians are coming.
 

Hyperion

Banned
If Mussolini isn't overthrown in 1943, I could see the Italians maybe lasting a day or two after Germany surrenders. In OTL, the German army in Italy was actually one of the last formations to surrender.

That being said, I don't see it possible for the Germans and Italians to stop Operation Husky, even with two or three more divisions available. At that time, Operation Husky actually had a bigger force allocated to it than OTL Overlord.

I could see the battle for Sicily being dragged out another few weeks, maybe a month, but in the end, that island is going down.
 
All these places are just going to get occupied because their Axis, and if they are still in it by 45 then they are most likely Arrow Cross/Salo types of governments that the Germans have installed and will need to be rooted out. I suspect the lynch mobs will get rather ugly in these places when the German army melts away and nothing but the collaborators are left.

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A most interesting scenerio would be that the the Polish Home managed to pull off what they were trying to do in our TL here, a rising as the defeated Germans left but before the Soviets arrive, the Soviets putting down the home army themselves would make the cold war rather frosty early.
 
That being said, I don't see it possible for the Germans and Italians to stop Operation Husky, even with two or three more divisions available. At that time, Operation Husky actually had a bigger force allocated to it than OTL Overlord.

I could see the battle for Sicily being dragged out another few weeks, maybe a month, but in the end, that island is going down.


Why is it impossible ? They lost far more than 3 divisions in Tunisia (unless you count a division as having 100k men)

The axis would have ~300k extra men, including probably a lot of the officers of the Panzerarmee Africa (men like Messe), whereas the allies get 76k more men.

1600 more axis aircraft (including the ~600 that were captured) vs 849 allied ones

And, most importantly, the Americans don't get any free experience, with Fredendall staying in charge.

Under these circumstances, I guess the Germans and Italians stand quite a good chance to repel Husky.
 
Under these circumstances, I guess the Germans and Italians stand quite a good chance to repel Husky.

So the Allies don't launch it.
The history of these endeavors is that you try them when you stand very good chances. Husky was carried out on the basis of a fairly accurate intel and assessment of what was in Sicily, how mobile it was, and what reinforcements could arrive.

The Allies probably decide to soften up the Italian target by means of strategic bombing. The guys who unhorsed Mussolini weren't just worried about the Allied boots in Sicily; they were no less worried about the Allied bombers over their heads, and the Allies had given them just a tasting. An all-out sustained SBC against Italy from the Southern end of the Med will bring about the ousting of Mussolini as per OTL.
 
Not committing to Tunisia would be an odd decision for Hitler to make with the viewpoint of Nvember 42.

On Novemer 8th the Stalingrad counterattack has not occured yet. Hitler isn't expecting a major extra committment in the east over the Winter and probably feels he can kick in a few extra divisions and air without much risk.

Without the commitment, Africa is done by the end of November 42 (Rommels remanants presumably being Ju52ed out or evacuated dispersed on siebel ferries and such). The Allies are completely uncommitted then to do what they want then (Roundup, early Husky, Sardinia anything).

Hitler was also concerned about the political effects, the neutrality of Turkey, Italy switching sides, etc...

The best decision IMO is when Rommel 43 comes to your headquaters in March saying Africa is lost, believe him and stop committing more troops, planes, and ships into the rathole, use your light craft, siebel ferries and MFPS and JU52s to evacuate the most important leaders and specialists at night, maybe Tunisia falls only a month early, but that was a bad month for the Axis.
 
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