This assumes a little smarter diplomacy on Germany's part.
When Winston Churchill proposes a Naval Holiday in early 1913, Tirpitz and the Kaiser don't react all defensive to such a proposal, but tell Lichonowsky to propose to Britain that such an agreement would only be possible if Britain supported Germany's colonial aspirations. Aspirations that could be settled perhaps with Portuguese territory.
A deal is hashed out, Germany and Britain agree to the proposed cessation of Battleship construction, a non aggression pact, along with a split of the Portuguese colonies, Northern Mozambique to Germany, Southern Mozambique to Britain, Coastal Angola to Germany, Interior Angola to Britain. Timor to Germany, Portugal to be offered $$$ compensation (after all German and Britain were in secret negotiations OTL to split the Portuguese colonies, and the whole point of the Germany navy was to use it to get such colonies, Britain get the naval holiday she wants and picks up some colonial booty). A secret clause was if Portugal refused, Germany would do the initial military action, Britain would come in later to protect her interests.
Summer 1913 the German fleet sails, loaded with marines....
Is such an agreement plausible?, how would the rest of Europe react?, if Germany was up to her eyeballs trying to subdue and develop these colonies, and feeling less encircled, and with more "places in the sun" might she tell Austria to just settle up with Serbia next year?