Germany/Britain Conspire to take shake down Portugal and become BFF

This assumes a little smarter diplomacy on Germany's part.

When Winston Churchill proposes a Naval Holiday in early 1913, Tirpitz and the Kaiser don't react all defensive to such a proposal, but tell Lichonowsky to propose to Britain that such an agreement would only be possible if Britain supported Germany's colonial aspirations. Aspirations that could be settled perhaps with Portuguese territory.

A deal is hashed out, Germany and Britain agree to the proposed cessation of Battleship construction, a non aggression pact, along with a split of the Portuguese colonies, Northern Mozambique to Germany, Southern Mozambique to Britain, Coastal Angola to Germany, Interior Angola to Britain. Timor to Germany, Portugal to be offered $$$ compensation (after all German and Britain were in secret negotiations OTL to split the Portuguese colonies, and the whole point of the Germany navy was to use it to get such colonies, Britain get the naval holiday she wants and picks up some colonial booty). A secret clause was if Portugal refused, Germany would do the initial military action, Britain would come in later to protect her interests.

Summer 1913 the German fleet sails, loaded with marines....

Is such an agreement plausible?, how would the rest of Europe react?, if Germany was up to her eyeballs trying to subdue and develop these colonies, and feeling less encircled, and with more "places in the sun" might she tell Austria to just settle up with Serbia next year?
 
IIRC it was an Anglo-German joint loan to Portugal with colonies as assurity. The Germans fully expected Portugal to default and they would scoop up the territories but Portugal was confident that GB (an ally) would not let this happen.

Tirpitz would never agree to a holiday as it would disrupt building tempo and industry too much.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Why do you take the route of 'new negotiations' ?

Why not let Kaiser Bill have one of his ... 'mercuryianisms' in 1912, bullying Tirpitz into accepting the keeping of the actual number of battleships and use instead the money asked for the additional BBs in the plans and negotiations for the Naval Laws amendement of 1912 to be used on foreign cruisers for the then also asked and eventually negotiated colonies ?

Would still leave :
...
Summer 1913 the German fleet sails, loaded with marines....
...
possible ... or even more plausible in then 'constructing' some portuguise failure on loans to execute the above.

To have such a 'pause' of ship construction again wtih some new negotiations again with also a person like Chruchill .... tbh I don't see this to be very plausible.

Edit :

What about Kaiser Bill going nuts on Tirpitz (not for the first and not for the last time) 'offer'/threatening of his resignation, if his view on things (no stepping back from new BB constructions) won't be served, at least not with a publical promise of neutrality by Britain ?
Perhaps this bit of too much turns a switch in Kaiser Bill making him to unwant Tirpitz as the 'irreplaceable' the latter (and many others also) regarded himself, thereby threatening Bills very own position as the 'supreme commander'.
-> making an agreement against Tirpitz wishes along the lines as above
-> results in a change of the Naval Law amendement of 1912 along the lines as above
-> results in Tirpitz 'well earned retirement' in late 1912 or early 1913​
 
Last edited:
Why do you take the route of 'new negotiations' ?

Edit :

What about Kaiser Bill going nuts on Tirpitz (not for the first and not for the last time) 'offer'/threatening of his resignation, if his view on things (no stepping back from new BB constructions) won't be served, at least not with a publical promise of neutrality by Britain ?
Perhaps this bit of too much turns a switch in Kaiser Bill making him to unwant Tirpitz as the 'irreplaceable' the latter (and many others also) regarded himself, thereby threatening Bills very own position as the 'supreme commander'.
-> making an agreement against Tirpitz wishes along the lines as above
-> results in a change of the Naval Law amendement of 1912 along the lines as above
-> results in Tirpitz 'well earned retirement' in late 1912 or early 1913​

Seems reasonable. (Perhaps the Naval Holiday is unworkable).

It seems the Portuguese colony split is an easy way to keep the Germans "occupied". Developing several new colonies would keep the Germans busy for quite a while. The cost of that might make them reluctant to take on any more expansionist pursuits.

For the British they pick up stuff too, and I bet the Germans could be talked into doing all the Diplomatic and Military heavy lifting. Sure it is a shake down of an "ally". But moving Germany off the list of enemies would be worth that.
 

Deleted member 94680

You’d need more of a change on the British side, rather than the German. OTL the British were mildly interested in the German plans for the Portuguese colonies, but quickly cooled when the German desire to take the colonies by force if necessary became apparent.
 
What if the Germans just took the colonies by force. The German Navy sails, give an ultimatum to Portugal, here is X million currency and keep the loans, were moving in, at the same time reassuring Britain that she will get her share, as well as a favorable naval treaty. Does Britain really invoke the 1373 treaty over Angola?
 
This assumes a little smarter diplomacy on Germany's part.

When Winston Churchill proposes a Naval Holiday in early 1913, Tirpitz and the Kaiser don't react all defensive to such a proposal, but tell Lichonowsky to propose to Britain that such an agreement would only be possible if Britain supported Germany's colonial aspirations. Aspirations that could be settled perhaps with Portuguese territory.

A deal is hashed out, Germany and Britain agree to the proposed cessation of Battleship construction, a non aggression pact, along with a split of the Portuguese colonies, Northern Mozambique to Germany, Southern Mozambique to Britain, Coastal Angola to Germany, Interior Angola to Britain. Timor to Germany, Portugal to be offered $$$ compensation (after all German and Britain were in secret negotiations OTL to split the Portuguese colonies, and the whole point of the Germany navy was to use it to get such colonies, Britain get the naval holiday she wants and picks up some colonial booty). A secret clause was if Portugal refused, Germany would do the initial military action, Britain would come in later to protect her interests.

Summer 1913 the German fleet sails, loaded with marines....

Is such an agreement plausible?, how would the rest of Europe react?, if Germany was up to her eyeballs trying to subdue and develop these colonies, and feeling less encircled, and with more "places in the sun" might she tell Austria to just settle up with Serbia next year?

The British in 1913 had absolutely no interest in this plan. Would be impossible unless you had a radical change of British leadership with the likes of Grey and Churchill being replaced by pro-German leaning counterparts.
 
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