Germany & Austria support Russia's claim to Port Arthur, 1903-04

In this ATL, France, Austria and Germany choose to more strongly support Russia in their position at Port Arthur as described in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_Intervention In July 1903 Japan presents its demands to Russia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War#Pre-war_negotiations 2nd Dec 1903, the Russian battleship Tsesarevich arrives at Port Arthur to join the Pacific Fleet.

In this timeline, showing their annoyance with Britain's recent alliance with Japan; France, Germany and Austria-Hungary dispatch naval forces they originally sent in OTL to partake in the Boxer Rebellion, to Port Arthur. Thus at the end of January 1904, a few weeks before the OTL battle of Port Arthur, there are the following ships at Port Arthur:

Russian
  • Battleships Petropavlovsk, Sevastopol, Peresvet, Pobeda, Poltava, Tsesarevich, and Retvizan
  • Armored cruiser Bayan
  • Protected cruisers Pallada, Diana, Askold, Novik, and Boyarin

German
  • Battleships Brandenburg, Kurfürst Friedrich Wilhelm, Weissenburg, Wörth
  • Protected cruisers Kaiserin Augusta, Hertha, and Hansa

Austria-Hungary
  • Armoured cruiser Kaiserin Augusta
  • Protected cruisers Hertha, and Hansa

France
  • Armoured cruiser Amiral Charner
  • Protected cruisers Jean Bart, Descartes and Pascal

Meanwhile France has sent a battle squadron to Saigon just in case.

Now what does Japan do? First of all, Japan has been informed of the French, German and KwK arrivals. What does Britain do?
 

GarethC

Donor
I think you have to examine:
a) why France is more interested in thwarting Britain than getting back Alsace-Lorraine - maybe you can escalate the Fashoda Incident or something

b) if it's realistic for Germany to get those ships out to the Far East. The Boxer Rebellion expedition (it's the same vessels, right?) was rather expensive - what is Germany going to get out of blowing another 100 million marks a couple of years later?

c) how can those HSF battleships be there? OTL, they're all in drydock being rebuilt at this time. Worth is the first to complete, in December 1903, but it then takes a while to get there.
 
Why would a British alliance in the Pacific annoy Austria-Hungary at all, especially enough to support their prime competitor in the Balkans?

And why would France and Germany join forces to conduct a naval demonstration in the coast of China against an Asian power that was widely regarded as hopelessly inferior against Russia in a possible war between the two before the OTL Russo-Japanese War?

Sure, France was an ally of Russia, but they made sure that their alliance only applied in continental Europe. But what about the rest? Why do they all suddenly want to risk a major war to preserve exclusive Russian presence in Manchuria and to support her claims in Korea? This is especially odd behavior from Germany, since after the Boxer revolt they considered the Central Plains of China to be part of their sphere of interest in this part of the world, and were weary of Russian presence in Manchuria.

Has the Dreikaiserbund resurfaced? If so, British diplomacy has somehow failed catastrophically in preventing the major powers of Eurasian landmass in forming a grand coalition that is clearly hostile to her interests.
 
I think you have to examine:
a) why France is more interested in thwarting Britain than getting back Alsace-Lorraine - maybe you can escalate the Fashoda Incident or something
b) if it's realistic for Germany to get those ships out to the Far East. The Boxer Rebellion expedition (it's the same vessels, right?) was rather expensive - what is Germany going to get out of blowing another 100 million marks a couple of years later?
c) how can those HSF battleships be there? OTL, they're all in drydock being rebuilt at this time. Worth is the first to complete, in December 1903, but it then takes a while to get there.
If the Fashoda Incident escalates to the point of war, wouldn't this cause butterflies in terms of Far Eastern matters? When busy fighting, China and Japan don't seem to be high on the belligerents' priority list, along with South Africa. Without Russians and Japanese in Manchuria, expect the conflict to be a Russian and Japanese versus Chinese War [number 2] due to lack of foreign involvement in the Boxer Rebellion, if it still takes place. And, a world war or something that begins in 1898 will very likely end in 1900 or later, which reduces the time, priority and money allocations for Chinese affairs.
By the way, France and Austria Hungary would think twice before sending their fleets because it would leave the Mediterranean open to Italian and British intervention. France might send a fleet to Saigon to support Russian claims as part of the [present] Dual Entente alliance, but they have more pressing issues at home against Germany. Little reason why Germany would contemplate sending its battleships overseas other than wasting them and provoking France and Japan. Germany and Russia weren't really allies and if they want Port Arthur to be in Russian hands, a French fleet would do, plus it keeps the ships away from France should an European War break out. And, we're talking about a larger scale conflict between a great transcontinental empire and a budding Asian power, not some rebels and a declining and corrupt empire, which means more ships to lose overseas when the main affair is Europe. Also, couldn't Britain deny coaling and transit rights along with the ships' departure through Gibraltar and/or Suez with excuses? [Possible need in case of a war against Germany and lack of coal available are good excuses without offending Japan and France while Russian ships may be granted exceptions due to urgency.] After a long voyage down Africa, if they're able to fight, the ships' had lost their efficiency, as proved by the Baltic Fleet's fatal voyage to Tsushima.
 
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Why would a British alliance in the Pacific annoy Austria-Hungary at all, especially enough to support their prime competitor in the Balkans?
I agree KuK involvement would be a stretch.

My idea behind this scenario is to test what Japan does if Russia isn't so obvious strategically and diplomatically weak in its position re. Port Arthur. So, if it makes for a more realistic scenario, perhaps we have a French cruiser from Saigon and a German gunboat.
 
It makes sense for Germany and Austria to support Russia in the Pacific and keep the eyes of off Turkey and the Balkans, Russia embroiled with Japan and threatening Britain is a good thing.

(Really it makes sense for the Germans to support the Russians even getting Constantinople.)
 
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