Germany attacks Turkey and Nationalist Spain, upholds NAP with USSR.

If the Germans knew what would happen to the Italians and what their capabilities actually were. It would be better to:

Ship over a few batteries of 88 mm guns and a panzer battle group (50 tanks, some artillery and a motorized infantry regiment before the British do Compass in December 1940. Send the air force to suppress Malta earlier than OTL January 1941. Perhaps this small force can help the Italians establish a blocking position on the Egyptian frontier and the entire Africa Corps doesn't have to be deployed later.

Put the Panzer division saved (and the extra supply trucks saved) into army group north, Leningrad should fall in 1941 (it was close anyway). Hope the butterflies of this down the road allow you to reach a compromise peace with the Soviet Union later.

It just seems nothing in Turkey or Spain is worth the lives and $ spent in OTL or any ATL anybody can come up with. The Germans had done everything on the cheap before and expected Barbarossa to be on the cheap too. So the best bet is to keep everything quiet until they can complete that task.
 

Artaxerxes

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As a thought, how do the Germans get the Turks onside? I would imagine given the disaster last time the Turks wanted nothing to do with the conflict.
 

Deleted member 1487

As a thought, how do the Germans get the Turks onside? I would imagine given the disaster last time the Turks wanted nothing to do with the conflict.
If the Germans work with the Soviets instead of attacking they are in the power position in the war in 1941. If they can leverage the Turks on threat of attack a Turkey in the Axis camp would actually pretty much rip apart the British positions in the Middle East and probably drive them from the war in 1941. The issue isn't that the disaster would be a defeat like in WW1, the defeat of France and the entrance of Italy on Germany's side, plus the Soviet-German tacit alliance made the situation vastly different; in fact in 1941 it looked like only a matter of time until Britain exited the war. The big problem for the Turks is the post-war when they would be dominated by Germany; the Turks didn't want to be beholden to anyone and just as they didn't want to DoW Germany until the last month of the war, they didn't want to be part of an Axis victory that would leave them at the mercy of Germany and potentially the USSR depending on deals made between the two powers. So Turkey really doesn't see itself as having anything to gain and a lot to lose even if on the winning side. Really I don't see how they could unless the Germans and Soviets make it explicitly clear that you join or die and the Turks fold.
 
Yes a Spanish Ulcer is so fashionable among the would be conquerors of Europe. Because an attack on Spain brings Portugal in and Britain can help Portugal rather easily and that country is great terrain for defence and not good at all for blitzkrieg.

Seriously, you would say the Spanish could hold against a German attak and then the British could help Portugal be defended.

Its not a small thing to conquer the Iberian peninsula and more so to hold it, and the bear gets stronger, but the strain on the British. Italy has BB's and cruicers, Germany still has tankers.
And the butterflies it makes. So many routes for Bismarck to take:D.
And as obsessednuker commented. Malta is going to go.
 
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