Germany and Russia Allies in 1914?

Hi, I'm new here, so please forgive me if this topic has been overdone...
As the title says, how would things change if the German Empire allied herself with the Russian Empire instead of Austria-Hungary?
1) When would the PoD have to be for this to take place?
2) Would this prevent WWI? My thought is that the war would be more limited than OTL. Assuming Archduke Ferdinand is still assassinated and AH issues an ultimatum on Serbia, Russia would mobilize. Germany might stay out of this imminent war, but I could see Wilhelm II intervening. A combined Russo-German offense would probably knock AH out quick.
3) What about France? I can see Wilhelm II striking at France, but most likely no Schlieffen Plan. Germany doesn't need to worry about a two-front war, so even if she did attack France, would German leaders risk GB entering the war by invading Belgium? Trench warfare might still happen, but w/o GB (and probably no USA) and w/ AH out, Germany and Russia would have the advantage (could Italy join at this point?). So would France surrender?
4) Russian Revolution? I'm not sure if the Russian Revolution would flare up, but pretty sure no Bolshevik Russia.
5) Would Germany and Russia be able to keep the war to just AH and France and pull out a victory? Or would GB intervene at some point?
 
Anyone care to comment?

It is rather big and would radically alter the alliance structure. The falling out between Russian and German aims seems highly likely but not a given. It would require some more detailed research to be sure what POD would be required. It might well be that Germany decides Russia is more useful as an ally than Austria-Hungary. However the problem on the Russian side would be replacing the lost French finance that would result from not entering an alliance with that republic.

Britain of course managed to be become rather nervous (incredibly hysterical according to some posters here and there are arguments both ways) about German ambitions. Add in Russian confrontations along a surprisingly long land frontier to its zone of interest for Britain in Asia and you have a recipe for much closer ties with France out of sheer self-defence.

You might have a somewhat weaker Russia but Russian strength was frequently overestimated prior to 1914 anyway.

I think the one thing you can be sure of is that World War I as we know would probably be derailed entirely and it might be better to look for possible flashpoints in the Ottoman Empire, Persia, Afghanistan or China. The other possibility is a much earlier war being provoked by Austria-Hungary as they would have been surrounded on three sides by rivals two of which were much stronger than they.

Italy has the dilemma that it would have loved to be part of an alliance aimed against Austria-Hungary and would enjoy being rivals to the French but could not afford to provoke the British.
 
Hi, I'm new here, so please forgive me if this topic has been overdone...
As the title says, how would things change if the German Empire allied herself with the Russian Empire instead of Austria-Hungary?
1) When would the PoD have to be for this to take place?
2) Would this prevent WWI? My thought is that the war would be more limited than OTL. Assuming Archduke Ferdinand is still assassinated and AH issues an ultimatum on Serbia, Russia would mobilize. Germany might stay out of this imminent war, but I could see Wilhelm II intervening. A combined Russo-German offense would probably knock AH out quick.

The PoD could take place in 1905-6 or before. This is when Russia's search for a loan resulted in a major falling-out with Germany and solidified a friendship with France. We also know that at this time Germany considered Austria-Hungary a liability in danger of crumbling all by itself; they were not yet as committed to it.

Hard to say whether WWI would happen and what it would look like. Austria-Hungary might be to scared of Russia+Germany to do anything dangerous. On the other hand the Dual Monarchy's leadership was never very rational - they might easily start a war anyway. Whether by attacking Serbia, Montenegro, Italy (as Franz Ferdinand hoped to do), or something else entirely.
 
Originally posted by Halagaz
The PoD could take place in 1905-6 or before. This is when Russia's search for a loan resulted in a major falling-out with Germany and solidified a friendship with France. We also know that at this time Germany considered Austria-Hungary a liability in danger of crumbling all by itself; they were not yet as committed to it.

If Germany is able and willing to give Russia that loan it might be possible. It almost happened, when Nicholas II and Wilhelm II on their own signed a pact (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Bjorko ). If Wilhelm promised to lend Russia money they needed Nichloas might be able to convince his ministers. Actually, he didn't need to convince them - he was THE tsar and his decision was final. Had he decided to be stubborn he would have succeed. Wilhelm might have had more problems with convincing his chancellor, but I think it was possible. (Sometimes I have a feeling the ministers were simply angry their rulers acted without their knowledge).
Of course France would have been outraged and Russian-French alliance would have gone down in flames. The same with German-Austrian alliance. But without German allied to Vienna, Germany's and Russia's interests were in no conflict whatsoever. Russia didn't care about German colonies and France, and Germany didn't care about Russian willingness to protect/liberate Slavic nations in the Balkans and Russian interest in taking Constatinople and Bosphorus.
German- Russian alliance would have3 been deadly to Austria-Hungary. Alone, Vienna would have probably turned to France for help, and France, not willing to be alone against the Germans would have agreed. Britain probably would have supported them, since combination of German industry and technologies with Russian resources would have been considered by London as a terrible danger to the British Empire.
Woule there have been a WW1? I think so. The situation was so tense that any spark would be enough.
 
If Germany is able and willing to give Russia that loan it might be possible. It almost happened, when Nicholas II and Wilhelm II on their own signed a pact (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Bjorko ). If Wilhelm promised to lend Russia money they needed Nichloas might be able to convince his ministers. Actually, he didn't need to convince them - he was THE tsar and his decision was final. Had he decided to be stubborn he would have succeed. Wilhelm might have had more problems with convincing his chancellor, but I think it was possible. (Sometimes I have a feeling the ministers were simply angry their rulers acted without their knowledge).

Agreed. Wilhelm's Chancellor wasn't entirely opposed to the attempted Treaty of Björkö, and a few months before had launched a proposal to coordinate German and Russian actions in case the Habsburg monarchy breaks down. Sounds like he definitely could have been convinced, sooner or later.
 
I think you could especially see it if Anschluss/Pan-Germanism was a major force in German politics or Willie's ambitions. This also highlights if he sought to gain a Mediterranean port at the expense of Austria and Italy.

Russia could then seek to take Turkey or go after Persia to gain its warm water port.

The Ottomans definitely go Allied in this situation.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Now for a more ... daring proposal : A second Convention of Tauroggen

We know Willy II was oscillating between warmongering and trying to be a peace-dove during the july-crisis. Given the chance he tried as late as the evening and night of 01.August avoiding war (at least with France and Britain but let a very last chance even to Nikky in his 'late night telegram' of 01.August).
Nikky II was (similar) unfond of war and had to be trucked and almost forced to agree to full mobilization, what threatended to expand the anticipated war against A-H also to include Germany and with it France and probably also Britain.

How things could have happended:
  • due to the famous/infamous Lichnowsky-telegram Willy II cancels the german mobilisation as well as the 'Schieffen-Plan' deployment - and stays with this decision despite Georgies (King George V) telegram of some 'misunderstanding'
  • the development of a new deployment plan gives a few days time for ... other diplomatics, Willys diplomatics.
  • Willy and Nikky with their 'direct wire' arrange a 'secret meeting' at the Memel for ... lets say 3. or 4.August, covered as 'visiting the troops'

On that meeting they not only renew the idea of the Treaty of Bjorko but agree on something as the M-R-pact of 1939. Both are 'free' of interference of unwanted councellors of whatever kind and can decide as 'true' autocrats should do - only by themself.
  • Russia abandons France and Germany abandons A-H
  • Russia gets Galicia and Germany Cisleithania (Bohemia, Austria proper, Tyrol, Istria maybe also, all together maybe as a puppet).
  • Transleithania (hungarian part) becomes 'independants' and deprived of some of its slavian posessions to a 'greater Servia'
  • Germany takes 'over' the financial obligations of France, Russia offers an immense market for the german economy
  • additionally there are some 'fleet' arrangements (to add some ... flavor) :
  • Germany offers free usage of the Kiel channel for the being-in-building baltic fleet as well as some harbouring possibilities maybe at Swinemünde or Danzig
  • The/a to be built mediterranian/black sea station squadron of germany get some rights at Odessa and the Krim.
  • Common manouvers in the north sea as well as the mediterranian and/or black sea might be arranged.
  • The german shipbuilding industry get some lucrative contracts

Result :
  • The Great European War of OTL is avoided.
  • A-H vs. Servia/Russia might still occur with the dismembering of A-H in its wake (as described above).
  • Questionable how fast A-H and (pro-war faction) France might get an military alliance forged - what would bring another Great European War (only with Germany almost 'free' to act against France with its new russian backing).
 
Originally posted by Halagaz


If Germany is able and willing to give Russia that loan it might be possible. It almost happened, when Nicholas II and Wilhelm II on their own signed a pact (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Bjorko ). If Wilhelm promised to lend Russia money they needed Nichloas might be able to convince his ministers. Actually, he didn't need to convince them - he was THE tsar and his decision was final. Had he decided to be stubborn he would have succeed. Wilhelm might have had more problems with convincing his chancellor, but I think it was possible. (Sometimes I have a feeling the ministers were simply angry their rulers acted without their knowledge).
Of course France would have been outraged and Russian-French alliance would have gone down in flames. The same with German-Austrian alliance. But without German allied to Vienna, Germany's and Russia's interests were in no conflict whatsoever. Russia didn't care about German colonies and France, and Germany didn't care about Russian willingness to protect/liberate Slavic nations in the Balkans and Russian interest in taking Constatinople and Bosphorus.
German- Russian alliance would have3 been deadly to Austria-Hungary. Alone, Vienna would have probably turned to France for help, and France, not willing to be alone against the Germans would have agreed. Britain probably would have supported them, since combination of German industry and technologies with Russian resources would have been considered by London as a terrible danger to the British Empire.
Woule there have been a WW1? I think so. The situation was so tense that any spark would be enough.
Now for a more ... daring proposal : A second Convention of Tauroggen

We know Willy II was oscillating between warmongering and trying to be a peace-dove during the july-crisis. Given the chance he tried as late as the evening and night of 01.August avoiding war (at least with France and Britain but let a very last chance even to Nikky in his 'late night telegram' of 01.August).
Nikky II was (similar) unfond of war and had to be trucked and almost forced to agree to full mobilization, what threatended to expand the anticipated war against A-H also to include Germany and with it France and probably also Britain.

How things could have happended:
  • due to the famous/infamous Lichnowsky-telegram Willy II cancels the german mobilisation as well as the 'Schieffen-Plan' deployment - and stays with this decision despite Georgies (King George V) telegram of some 'misunderstanding'
  • the development of a new deployment plan gives a few days time for ... other diplomatics, Willys diplomatics.
  • Willy and Nikky with their 'direct wire' arrange a 'secret meeting' at the Memel for ... lets say 3. or 4.August, covered as 'visiting the troops'

On that meeting they not only renew the idea of the Treaty of Bjorko but agree on something as the M-R-pact of 1939. Both are 'free' of interference of unwanted councellors of whatever kind and can decide as 'true' autocrats should do - only by themself.
  • Russia abandons France and Germany abandons A-H
  • Russia gets Galicia and Germany Cisleithania (Bohemia, Austria proper, Tyrol, Istria maybe also, all together maybe as a puppet).
  • Transleithania (hungarian part) becomes 'independants' and deprived of some of its slavian posessions to a 'greater Servia'
  • Germany takes 'over' the financial obligations of France, Russia offers an immense market for the german economy
  • additionally there are some 'fleet' arrangements (to add some ... flavor) :
  • Germany offers free usage of the Kiel channel for the being-in-building baltic fleet as well as some harbouring possibilities maybe at Swinemünde or Danzig
  • The/a to be built mediterranian/black sea station squadron of germany get some rights at Odessa and the Krim.
  • Common manouvers in the north sea as well as the mediterranian and/or black sea might be arranged.
  • The german shipbuilding industry get some lucrative contracts

Result :
  • The Great European War of OTL is avoided.
  • A-H vs. Servia/Russia might still occur with the dismembering of A-H in its wake (as described above).
  • Questionable how fast A-H and (pro-war faction) France might get an military alliance forged - what would bring another Great European War (only with Germany almost 'free' to act against France with its new russian backing).
They're both interesting scenarios
After some reading, I have to correct my 2nd point: I don't think AH would have even issued an ultimatum ITTL. AH was not in position to risk war and she only did so because Germany agreed to back her up. And Germany only did that because she thought the threat of German intervention would put the Russians in check(as what happened in the Bosnian crisis a few years ago). Ironically, Russia began mobilizing with the hopes of preventing war. Lack of communication between Germany and Russia caused both nations' measures to stop war result in the very thing they were avoiding.
Therefore, if Germany and Russia are able to maintain friendly relations, they would have been able to pressure AH into backing down. Also, Germany would not be so paranoid of a two front war that made them susceptible to the warmongering rhetoric of Moltke. France would most likely have allied with AH in fear of Germany, but wouldn't be confident(or stupid) enough to provoke war.
The peace, though, could be disturbed when the inevitable Russian Revolution occurs.
Germany could intervene to keep the monarchy in power, which could spark an early civil war. AH and France might try to support the revolutionaries. I don't see an all-out war on European soil but possibly a proxy war?
 

Redbeard

Banned
The French-Russian "Axis" was alive and kicking from soon after the German victory over France and the German unification. Of course as a reaction to the creation of a very strong Germany and to this Germany (still under Bismarck) reacted by seeking A-H and Italy.

Before that Prussian foreign policy had been very dependent on good relations to Russia but the German unification and the humiliation of France really made this impossible. I find it difficult to find plausible ideas of how to break the French-Russian alliance without Prussia giving up its hegemony over Germany - and that is even more implausible.

The obvious PoD ought to be in the relations to UK however. Germany had by late 19th century no natural conflicts of interest with UK and only got some when they zealously and under great cost built a high seas fleet and clearly stated it was meant to challenge the British Empire! The British started out with being very anxious about French and Russian ambitions vs. the Empire but at around 1900 had to realise that the Germans had become an even greater threat.

IOW the British and Germans ought to have shared their anxiety vs. France and Russia and if not allied then at least should have been neutral vs. each other.
 
What if the Austrian tried (and failed) to intervene alongside the French in the Franco-Prussian War.

Even if Russian refrained from supporting Prussia / Germany (as it probably would), the impact of Austro-German relations would be devastating. A Zweikaiserbund and a long lasting Russo-German alliance could easily be the outcome to offset the revanchist Franco-Austrian one. I'm not sure that Britain would be drawn into this alliance structure but if it was it is just as likely they would support Germany as France. Realpolitik would suggest that an accommodation with Russia has much more to offer in terms of protecting British interests than a deal with France.
 
The obvious PoD ought to be in the relations to UK however. Germany had by late 19th century no natural conflicts of interest with UK and only got some when they zealously and under great cost built a high seas fleet and clearly stated it was meant to challenge the British Empire! The British started out with being very anxious about French and Russian ambitions vs. the Empire but at around 1900 had to realise that the Germans had become an even greater threat.
I do agree, Germany should not have started the navy race with Britain. It brought unnecessary strain between the two nations over Wilhelm's ambitions. By allying with GB, Germany can seek to strengthen her position on the continent. What could and would come in the way is France.

The French-Russian "Axis" was alive and kicking from soon after the German victory over France and the German unification. Of course as a reaction to the creation of a very strong Germany and to this Germany (still under Bismarck) reacted by seeking A-H and Italy.
I don't think this is entirely correct. Sure, Franco-German relations were damaged after the Franco-Prussian War. However, Germany and Russia maintained an alliance while Bismarck war in power. It was when Germany stopped putting in effort into her relation with Russia that France stepped in.
 
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