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In *Britain's Informal Empire in the Middle East: A Case Study of Iraq 1929-1941*, pp. 133-134, Daniel Silverfarb suggests that the failure of Germany and Rashid Ali to act more quickly and decisively following the April 1941 coup had momentous consequences:

"To a considerable extent Britain's rapid and complete victory in the campaign was due to Germany's failure to act quicker and in greater strength. For example, the first German aircraft did not enter combat until 13 May, eleven days after the beginning of hostilities. By this time the British had already broken the siege of Habbaniya and taken the offensive against the Iraqis. An earlier commitment of German aircraft, especially if accompanied by a small number of highly trained ground troops to stiffen the Iraqi resistance, might have made a substantial difference in the campaign. It might even have affected the course of the war as a whole, especially if Germany had utilized the airfields in the vicinity of Baghdad to stage bombing raids against the large oil refinery at Abadan in southwestern Iran, the products of which were absolutely vital for the conduct of British military operations in North Africa, the Middle East, and the eastern Mediterranean.

"Rashid Ali's failure to open hostilities with an all-out attack on Habbaniya was another major factor in Britain's success. Clearly, Iraq's ability to overrun the base, or at least prevent flight operations, would have been greatly enhanced if he had struck first. Doubtless the Iraqis would have suffered heavy casualties in the endeavor but, given their considerable superiority in numbers of men and artillery pieces, with perseverance they probably would have succeeded. Their prospects would have been particularly good if they had attacked at night when the British aircraft could not bomb or strafe with precision and, without the use of a flare path which would have assisted the Iraqi gunners, could only take off and land with great difficulty and danger. Rashid Ali's hesitation at this decisive moment enabled Britain at the outset to gain control of the air over the battlefield and to maintain it for the duration of the campaign. The British commanders at Habbaniya exploited this advantage to the fullest by bringing up reinforcements and supplies by air from Shaiba, preventing the Iraqi commanders at Habbaniya from bringing up reinforcements and supplies by road from Baghdad, and depositing troops behind Iraqi lines by landing transport aircraft on the desert floor. Most important, however, the British commanders used their air superiority to give close air support to their troops in combat. These British air attacks had a devastating effect on the morale of the Iraqi troops. Thus Britain's control of the air, which contributed mightily to its success in the campaign, and which was absolutely dependent upon the use of the airbase at Habbaniya, flowed directly from Iraq's reluctance to cross the threshold from a diplomatic challenge and a military maneuver into open warfare.

"The Iraqis made other important mistakes too. For example, although Anglo-Iraqi relations were extremely tense for a month preceding the actual outbreak of hostilities, they did not stockpile aviation fuel, lubricants and bombs at Mosul, their main airbase in the north and later the center of the German air operations. Consequently, the Germans had to bring most of their supplies by transport aircraft from Rhodes. This airlift was only partly successful because the distances involved were great, and because the German government did not give it sufficient priority. As a result, the German commanders in Iraq were unable to make maximum use of their aircraft because of a severe shortage of fuel and stores.

"Nor did the Iraqis install demolition charges on the vitally located bridge over the Euphrates at Falluja on the road between Habbaniya and Baghdad. As a result of this error, the British were able to capture the bridge intact. Since the river at this point was 300 yards wide, the capture of the bridge greatly facilitated the advance of their troops toward Baghdad..." https://books.google.com/books?id=WsgtN4uJsL8C&pg=PA133

So suppose Rashid Ali and the Germans had done everything Silverfarb suggests. Effects?
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