Germany and Japan

What do you think the result would have been had Germany and Japan worked much closer together ? Instead of Japan attacking America and Singapore they could have attacked Russia and forced them into a 2 front war. America would have no reason to declare war on either nation until much later. They could have divided Russian territory. The Japanese everything East of the Urals and Germany everything in the West. Being busy with the Japanese Russia could not have used troops from the East to stop the Germans at Moscow or even the next year at Stalingrad. Plus it would have been much harder for the USA to send help in the form of rolling stock and other supplies. The only port available then being Murmansk and Archangel. It also would have been more difficult to transfer factories in the Ukraine to East of the Urals.
 
The biggest problem with this is that Japan needs oil to fuel their war machine. The only way to get that oil is to attack and dominate European (French, British, Dutch etc) colonies that have the needed oil. To avoid that they would need to either take the Allies European colonies, or not have an embargo from the USA.
 
The biggest problem with this is that Japan needs oil to fuel their war machine. The only way to get that oil is to attack and dominate European (French, British, Dutch etc) colonies that have the needed oil. To avoid that they would need to either take the Allies European colonies, or not have an embargo from the USA.

As above, the Japanese relied heavily on American oil imports. They were on a limited time frame to act without the oil. Literally 6-12 months. They attacked South because it was easy access, and attacking South pretty much guarantees American intervention.
 
Attacking America did not provide oil it only made us declare war on them . Had they attacked Russia when Russia only had half an army and no navy they would have had access to the oil Germany would have gotten access to in Baku plus they could still invade Sumatra . If America did not declare war on Germany when they took almost all
Of Europe plus bomb England why would we declare war on them for taking Sumatra or Singapore ? Pearl Harbor forced us to declare war .
 
Attacking America did not provide oil it only made us declare war on them . Had they attacked Russia when Russia only had half an army and no navy they would have had access to the oil Germany would have gotten access to in Baku plus they could still invade Sumatra . If America did not declare war on Germany when they took almost all
Of Europe plus bomb England why would we declare war on them for taking Sumatra or Singapore ? Pearl Harbor forced us to declare war .

Our point is that the Japanese needed oil to fuel their war machine and that the only way to get that is by taking European colonies that have oil. But even with that they would need more oil, so waiting for the Germans to take the Baku oil fields makes little sense.
 
They can take the oil milasia without attacking Pearl Harbor no need to go to war against USA especially since everybody else was easy pickings and Russia would have a really hard time defeating both Germany and Japan at same time
 
Attacking America did not provide oil it only made us declare war on them . Had they attacked Russia when Russia only had half an army and no navy they would have had access to the oil Germany would have gotten access to in Baku plus they could still invade Sumatra . If America did not declare war on Germany when they took almost all
Of Europe plus bomb England why would we declare war on them for taking Sumatra or Singapore ? Pearl Harbor forced us to declare war .

Are... are you serious? How in earth are you going to get that much oil from Baku to Japan, pray tell?@
 
I said they could also attack Sumatra just not Pearl Harbor , there is obviously no oil in any of USA territories
 
I said they could also attack Sumatra just not Pearl Harbor , there is obviously no oil in any of USA territories

And you act as though the US and UK are going to just sit around twiddling their thumbs while Japan gobbles up everything. Furthermore, the Japanese already have the vast majority of their army bogged down in the fight to secure China; Stalin dosent exactly need much to hold back the remainder, particularly if he's willing to trade some space for time in the logistical nightmare that is Siberia.

I can see you're new to the site, so probably new to alt history scenario construction in general. It'll take some practice, but remember to think through your conclusions a bit more critically.
 

Philip

Donor
I said they could also attack Sumatra just not Pearl Harbor ,

The Philippines sit right in the middle of the sea routes between Sumatra and Japan. The Japanese can not (indeed, did not) ignore the American presence there. An attack on Pearl is not needed to bring the US into the war. The Philippines would be enough.

there is obviously no oil in any of USA territories

Ummmm...in 1940, the US was far and away the world's largest producer of oil. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than the rest of world combined.
 
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There's a lot of factors here that need to be addressed.

The primary Japanese objective in the war was the subjugation of China, while there were many opinions from many factions on how this would look in the long run, they all agreed China needed to be defeated. So we look at the situation Japan has on its hands. The China Lobby were influential in the US and the US was vehemently opposed to Japanese expansion in Asia. They saw Japan as a threat to their own security in the Pacific and America wanted to keep China open. Japan being an island nation relied heavily on imported oil, largely from the United States who imposed the embargo to cripple the Japanese war machine in China (80% of oil came from the US) along with numerous other embargoes on copper and scrap iron. This effort ALMOST brought Japan to negotiate, the US hoped to strangle Japan into withdrawing from China and signing non aggression pacts with the British and the other Asian powers.

This was unacceptable to Tojo however, so Japan doubled down and went after the Southern Resource Area with the vain hope they could knock the US out quickly and force them to negotiate (Japan saw democracy as weak). The Japanese couldn't bypass the Philippines, the US were actively hostile and funding China and Britain with loans and other goods. It was militarily unacceptable to allow the US to operate bases right on the Japanese line of supply, when (not if) the Americans joined the war, Japan would be cut off again, so removing the US garrison was crucial. Japan hoped a quick shock and new campaign could break the US resolve but they were super wrong (as history shows). America was getting ready for war, Pearl Harbour forced their hand; they did not want Japan ruling Asia.

What you are proposing in no way helps Japans immediate objectives/problems. That is a huge gamble that has huge chances of backfiring. If the war in Eastern Russia bogs down, then Japan is now bleeding its precious resources in a war going nowhere that they would eventually lose. Germany is also on the other side of the world, even if they are able to secure the Baku oil fields, they cant get the oil to Japan very easily or in the quantity that Japan needs. Mainland Russia would likely be in chaos and shipping options are closed. The Japanese experience against the Red Army had also been pretty unfavorable and the Japanese weren't keen on picking another fight with the USSR. The southern resource area was closer and more weakly defended and the Japanese perceived the US and the Europeans to be weaker in constitution. It's the more logical choice to the somewhat illogical Japanese high command.

You need to change the build up to the conflict, probably as far back as 1937, the Japanese had put the US on edge too much to be ignored. Alternatively some people put forward securing an oil supply in Manchuria, but from what I understand, the technology that Japan had access to was insufficient to tap the supply. Maybe there is something there that can work as a POD but Im unsure.

Welcome to the board by the way :)
 
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Japan did not have enough tankers to move the oil it needed from DEI to Japan even before any sort of enemy action, even convoys reduce the SOA (speed of advance) of a ship. Even assuming that you could get the Baku oil to Persian Gulf ports, which requires the Germans to take Baku undamaged, and butterfly away the crap railroad connections and the gauge difference, and assuming there is no interference with the tankers, it is quite a distance from the Persian Gulf to Japan so you need a lot more tankers to maintain the flow which Japan does not have. The countries that have "lots" of tankers, UK, USA, Norway are not going to be chartering them to Japan even if not at war with Japan. BTW you can't use Murmansk and Archangel to ship oil to Japan, even assuming Germany controls them - there are not oil storage facilities adequate to supply an oil export trade, as well as the appropriate piers and loading facilities, and remember the sea route to Japan from there means through the Med and Suez or around Africa, the Arctic route is not developed and is season dependent at best.

There are ways Germany and Japan could have cooperated better, but not much. Had Germany sent naval personnel to Japan well before the war they could have learned the tricks of carrier aviation, and Japan could have helped them design something better than the Graf Zeppelin as well as better carrier aircraft. Germany could have helped Japan with engine technology for aircraft, and thinking about submarine warfare. All of this would have required multiple major changes - doctrinal, personal (Goering nt insisting anything with wings was his) etc.
 
Attacking America did not provide oil it only made us declare war on them . Had they attacked Russia when Russia only had half an army and no navy they would have had access to the oil Germany would have gotten access to in Baku plus they could still invade Sumatra . If America did not declare war on Germany when they took almost all
Of Europe plus bomb England why would we declare war on them for taking Sumatra or Singapore ? Pearl Harbor forced us to declare war .

In the OTL Japan had limited resources. Moreover logistics was a real problem. Keeping logistics and resources in mind, what is Japan's best use of what they had and didn't have but needed? Clearly Japan need oil, raw materials, and food to support the war and expansion efforts.

Things to the South like the DEI's, was RTU (Ready To Use). With Russia most everything was frozen. As Russian troops fall back they destroy anything of use. With that is mind in my view, China and moving South is Japan's only option.

Back in the 1930-35 time frame, Japan should have put more resources into building her merchant fleet. Oil, troop, and cargo ships. That said (and done) Japan could have moved materials they pillaged from occupied areas. As things stood in the OTL, they just didn't have shipping resources to move things like oil for example.
 
In 1941 the oil and gas in Siberia was either mostly or completely unknown, and essentially completely undeveloped. Even if Japan takes Siberia at least as far as Lake Baikal, and the Russians don't scorch earth as they retreat, what do they gain? Nothing they really need. Even if they know the location of each and very oil field, each and every mineral deposit, it will take a good deal of time and effort to develop them. Japan needs oil (and other materials) today, not 5-10 years from now (summer 1941 timeframe when the complete embargo happens).

Let's say the USSR capitulates in August 1941. OK now Germany has access to the oil of Baku - but they will need a chunk of that - and the lack of tankers to send it to Japan has already been pointed out, shipping it by rail to Vladivostok for the Japanese to pick up is not going to help. The number of tanker cars in Russia is limited, some are needed to move oil to Germany. The trip from Baku to Vladivostok is long so how many round trips will any tanker cr be able to make in a month - maybe one at best.
 
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