The terms the Central Powers were looking for were basically the front lines become the new border. Russia would have been better off accepting the terms. The problem was people expected the USA to come save the Entente, and they were right. So either the whites or communists could simply wait for a Entente win, and regain the lost land plus probably new lands.
So to have Russia/USSR make peace you need a butterfly effect of the USA not entering the war. With the USA not in the war and a collapsing society, it makes a lot more sense for the Russians to make peace, and the peace will be earlier than OTL, possibly in the Summer of 1917.
The only catch is that as battle conditions for each side improved in the war, the terms tended to become harsher. So Germany might well have went from the cease fire line being the new border to something like OTL terms if the USA was not in the war. At any time after November 1915, it made sense for all sides to seek a negotiated peace, and all the major powers interests were hurt by continuing the war. It was clear by late 1915, it would not be a quick war, there were no miracle weapons that would win the war quickly, that the war was going to bankrupt the powers, and the casualties on all sides would be crushing. But it is hard to find peace offers in WW1 that are a negotiate peace terms, the terms were normally victor terms.
If the Russians ask politely and offer good compensation - AH and Germany would be content with a large bite out of russia for the time being...
Again, why is any Russian government going to voluntarily yield a large bite out of itself? Lenin had to resort to histronics to get the Bolshies to do this, why's any other Russia going to act any differently than that?
Again, why is any Russian government going to voluntarily yield a large bite out of itself? Lenin had to resort to histronics to get the Bolshies to do this, why's any other Russia going to act any differently than that?
Uh, because the alternative was revolution?
Why did the Germans agree to the Versailles Treaty? Because the alternative was worse. That is why a Russian government should have sought peace ay time after 1916. The Czar and then the Provisional Governemnt failed to realize how precarious the situation was. It wasn't a matter of choosing between good and bad or even between bad and worse. It was between really bad and utter total ruin.
What doomed both Kerensky and the Czar was that they refused to admit as much.
What doomed both Kerensky and the Czar was that they refused to admit as much.
How is it better off sacrificing so much of its richest, most industrialized territories for no reason other than a German army is sitting on them?
If the Czar or Kerensky just stop trying to bail out the western allies with ill advised offensives they avoid doom. Hold the line, keep your soldiers alive, try not to to use up too much supplies, pick on the Turks if the opportunity presents itself, improve the Murmansk railway.
As long as Russia is in the war at some level, the Allies win eventually (even without the United States) then you win back everything in the general peace, plus get chunks of Turkey and Austria too.
but an outright peace deal would be even better
If early enough, the Tsar's regime survives, Russia losses Poland and Lithuania which it lots anyway IOTL, and the horrors of communism are avoided.
If between the first and second revolution, the Russians avoid the horrors of the Russian civil war and lose Poland and Lithuania which is lost IOTL.
If after the communist take power, they have an easier time winning the RCW. It is better from their perspective.
And in all scenarios, millions of fewer Russians are KIA, MIA, or starve to death.