Germany and Austria after early defeat

Assume Nazi Germany is defeated before December 1941 without either Soviet or US forces taking part directly

Either weather problems cause Nazi forces to slow down in May 1940

Or (my favorite) some far thinking people persuade Britain to concentrate of tactical aircraft (rather than the air power fantasy) and France develops an effective tank force. Germany loses significantly in the West by Mid September and Stalin decides not to risk war with the West so stays put.


Obviously Hitler cannot be left in power but


Do Britain and France (and Probalby Poland and maybe Czechovolvakia) try a long term occupation.

Or do they decide that Germany would be okay if it had elections (despite the earlier experiment)#

Also is it possible that the Anschluss will be allowed.

One idea I have had (though it is probably not realistic) is a somewhat constitutional monarchy under the Hapsbergs being put in place

Oh and does this change Japan's behaviour to the point of not attacking the US?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Changing Japan's behavior: maybe. I think so, for Japan Germany collapsing early is bad, since it allows Britain and France to fully concentrate on them. (then again with a weak Germany, Japan might not attack European colonies at all).

I can't see a full occupation, but we will probably see some parts of Germany being occupied for a while.

I think Austria would be separated again for now. If things start to go bad for Germany early, Mussolini would probably join the Allies. And he would make sure he borders a weak Austria, not a potentially pissed of Germany.

Habsburgs- no chance.

I could see Poland getting land like OTL (since they lost land to the USSR, Köningsberg would probably become Polish). Czechoslovakia might get something, and Hungary would be pressured to give back what they snatched.
 
The best way to achieve this would be if the Allies attacked ASAP. Just break through the overrated Westwall, bomb the Ruhrgebiet, and see Nazi Germany break down.

Seriously, the Wehrmacht had only ~30 divisions in the west, France + Britain should've won.

After that? Austria and Czechoslovakia are restituted, but Poland will be a problem - Stalin won't give back Eastern Poland. And it's not very probable that the Allies will start a great anti-Soviet war with Germany on their side.

France might insist that Germany has to be broken up. Independence for Rhineland+Ruhrgebiet, Bavaria, the south-west, Saxony and whatnot.
 
I don't think that people will be expelled ITTL without the long, bloody war to justify it. So will Czechoslovakia be reinstituted with the Sudetenland? And would Poland really get a larger German minority than they already had? Danzig becoming Polish is ok, even some more frontier territories, but large territories with continuous German settlement?

I think that Germany would definitely be partitioned. The French would likely annex the Sarre and establish a Rhine republic, Bavaria or Southern Germany as a whole would become independent, and Prussia is definitely partitioned.
 

Inhato

Banned
I don't think that people will be expelled ITTL without the long, bloody war to justify it. So will Czechoslovakia be reinstituted with the Sudetenland? And would Poland really get a larger German minority than they already had? Danzig becoming Polish is ok, even some more frontier territories, but large territories with continuous German settlement?
Germans would be expelled.The reason for expulsions in pre-war territories was support of Nazism and aiding German invasion in Czechoslovakia and Poland by German minority militias(see Selbstschutz). They not only assisted military forces of Nazi Germany but from first day of the war, per plans made before the war engagedmass murder of local non-German populations. Such militias and organisations represented a large share of German adult male population. These people would either have to face trial for treason of countries and involvement in genocide or flee to Germany to escape trials.
So the German population in pre-war Czechoslovakia and Poland territories would definitely face expulsion.

Much depends on the time and situation in which Germany is defeated.
 
PODs starting from the 1920s could create a situation where Britain and France have both the will and capability to invade Germany after it attacks Poland. That could enable the Anglo-French to defeat Germany before 1941.

At minimum -

Czechoslovakia is restored

Austria is made independent again

Rhineland to be demilitarized for a certain period of time

Other parts of Germany occupied for a certain amount of time, but probably no longer than 1-2 years - just long enough to enforce any decommisioning of weapons and acceptance of the peace treaties

But what happens in Germany proper? Hard to say. It is obvious that German power could not be contained, but it is also obvious that for long term peace that Germany cannot be left seething in resentment against the West. Somehow these goals must be reconicled. The defects of Versailles (which required constant intervention in Germany by the victors to uphold terms) must be addressed. Several options are all plausible. Here is one of them.

1) Break off the Catholic south from the Protestant North. It is a natural division of the country which could be accepted. An independent Rhineland is also possible, but would have much less popular support. While wanting to weaken Germany, you can't indefinitely kept it divided if the people in the different parts want to rejoin each other. That just invites more war.

2) Allow the Hohenzollerns to regain the German throne in a constitutional monarchy to reconcile the conservative monarchists to a relatively pro-Western government. Crown Prince William could be acceptable to the Allies if they realize they need to reconcile the conservatives to any new government. Failing that, perhaps his son Louis Ferdinand who was a staunch anti-Nazi.

3) Do not cut up any additional German territory and give it to non-Germans. Dividing Bavaria (and Baden-Wuttermburg) from the rest of Germany is one thing, but giving land to the French or Poles is another.

4) Allow the various German states cooperation with one another such as a common customs area, a common currency, or even free movement of peoples as long as foreign policy and any armed forces are kept separate.

5) Establish a very firm military alliance between France, Britain, Czechoslovakia and Poland (best if Belgium also included, possibly even Netherlands). Set up a combined command very similar to NATO. Perhaps even give possibility for the German states to someday join in an anti-Bolshevik alliance.

6) Make it known throughout Germany that Germany was militarily defeated. There was no stab-in-the-back. And if Germany tries a third time, the Anglo-French will defeat them again and hurt them even worse.

Any postwar settlement must not only break German power, but create a European political order that the Germans accept as legitimate. If they can't, they only delay the start of another war with Germany.

Japan only attacked the US because it thought it could knock the US out of the war before it began, and the war was to seize the relatively undefended Dutch East Indies. With Germany defeated, the British and French can defend their East Asian colonies. Japan will not strike south in this scenario, so no attack on the US will ever be contemplated. Likely by 1943 (when Nationalist China continues to receive support from US or Allies to rebuild their army into an effective force) or so Japan accepts that it can never win and agrees to some sort of face saving peace with China.
 
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