Germany allowed by Entente to keep it's Brest-Litovsk border.

P.S. Anti-Soviet credentials of Baltic nationalists were rather poorly established by 1918. They were constantly suspected of seeking accomodation with Bolsheviks at expence of anti-bolshevist front, so allowing Germans overlordship over the area (for example, keeping United Baltic Duchy alive) isn't ASB too.

I'm afraid it is.

The reality is that at the time we are talking about nobody in France, Britain or the USA cared about who ruled Russia as long as Russia was in the war. They were more afraid of the Germans than of the communists, to put it simply.
 
there is no reason for the Western Allies to let Germany off lightly.

Further, if you change history so Germany is in a position to keep any of the spoils you pretty much have to give Germany a clean win, in which case they don't need to bargain for anything.
All your points are valid, but let's assume several smallish changes (for example, more widespread and violent anti-war protests in France and GB under more Leftist slogans than they used ITOL, some sort of Entente's snafu on frontlines gives an impression that Germany isn't in as dire situation as it was, this kind of thing) bring about some sort of more compromise solution of Eastern question. German Empire is screwed as hard as it was IOTL on West but newborn German Republic is kinda sorta employed by Entente to keep law and order on East (it all wrapped up in very noble words, of course, Poland is granted independence and Romania is evacuated, but Ukraine and Western Belarus remain under German control). Again, don't tell me this is unlikely, I know it. Just assume that it happened and OTL German 1918 attitude toward Russian situation (basically they didn't meet rightist they didn't like) is preserved.

And just maybe that gigantic border stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea just might be impossible to be effectively patrolled by a thinly stretched occupational army anyway, and be porous enough to allow traffic across.
Allowing traffic across the border (and it will happen, no questions about it) isn't the same thing as allowing free and unrestricted operation of army and ability to set up local government structure.

How is this war financed?
For example, German expences to wage this war (not that big expenses, really, Empire stockpiled enough weapons to sustain this kind of activity for years, even if military industry is completely stopped, so you need to feed troops and possibly pay them) would be counted as reparations (I listed Entente'f fear of Red Rot as one of main driving forces of this TL).

What is its political constituency in the German state?
German rightists (OTL freikorps). All those people who were babbling about "stab in the back" IOTL. They would see it as salvage of their wounded pride.

How do you convince an mutinous German military to stay in Ukraine?
You just replace those "poisoned" units with combination of freikorps and most reliable forces from Western Front.

What do you feed them when they're there?
Oh, that's easy. You just trade protection and stability provided by German occupation for food. IOTL guerilla against Germans was sparked by German attempts to feed Reich at expense of Ukraine. Well, these attempts would have to stop. But moderate "food tax" would be enough to provide for "stability force".
 

Deleted member 1487

The only way this could happen is if the Allies negotiate a peace. This is likely to mean no US entry and a tightening of loans to force the end. So basically, West front sans AL for Germany, no international colonies, and Eastern economic colonies. Not ideal, but much better than OTL. Austria-Hungary falls apart and Germany might even gain rump Austria+Sudeten while holding down vast lands in the East. It might be wise for them then to seek accomodations with the Whites by giving up Ukraine and maintaining the Baltic and Poland-Belarus (I assume a union to increase the viability of the country). OTL the Allies used German forces in the East to maintain the cordon of the Bolsheviks until the various national groups could defend themselves. Additionally, the war in the East kept going for years after the end of WW1, so even if Germany does get to keep anything, they will be bogged down in a vicious struggle with the Poles, Balts, Russians and just about anyone with a gun. On the plus side for them, there won't be a power supplying them will training, weapons, and a safe haven (that is assuming the West is not full of dicks, but even if they are, they can't get into the Baltic, and anything that they send via the Black sea is likely to go to the various warlords that were called the Whites)

Actually I am planning a TL kind of based on this idea, but it will take a little while, I have a lot of research to do, as I want to make it truly epic.
 
Top