Germany allies with Russia instead of Austria-Hungary

"Joining" Russia and Germany would require giving up Galicia-Lodomeria to Russia, surrendering all influence in the Balkans, and then becoming a German puppet state. And if the Russians want Carpatho-Ruthenia as well, then the Hungarians might refuse the deal. A-H could never stomach that price.
[citation needed]
 
I'm pretty sure that Britain would ally with Germany and Russia, one of their main fears at this time is Russia gaining more power and being aligned against Britain and in a position to threaten India. That was one of the main reasons for Britain joining the entante in OTL. So if the whole Russia vs A-H goes down, its likely gonna be just Russia and Germany smashing the A-H leading to anchluss plus mixed Russian and German sovereignty over the new little kingdoms of central Europe. UK obviously wont like this shift in power, but at least India is "safe". Maybe it will try and play these two powers off against each other in the 20's?
 
Go home Austria-Hungary, you're drunk.

europe191403.gif
 
Britain could be helpful to Austria Hungary by helping France attack Germany proper, to relieve AH from German attack.

In the 1870's (your time frame) or even 1890's Britain could not contribute anything significant in the terms of the numbers. France attacking Germany proper is another fantasy: France was weaker than Germany, hence the OTL alliance with Russia. Significant German involvement against A-H would not be needed (hence uselessness of the British "help") because Russia was quite capable of dealing with A-H AND Ottoman empire (in OTL it was beating both while having most of its troops fighting Germany).

Also, any investment or economic aid would go to AH rather than Russia, leaving a weaker Russia and a stronger AH.

The whole premise assumes a greater German involvement in the Russian economy than in OTL so this is pretty much irrelevant. Anyway, economic involvement would have to start decades before the alt-wwi to have a noticeable effect.


The great game didn't just include Afghanistan, it also included, and a aggressive Russia could seek to establish a protectorate.

... and also the lands all the way to the South Africa. :) There was no Russian-British conflict over Iran and the term references to the competition in the Central Asia. Eventually Delimitation Protocol Between Great Britain and Russia was signed in London in 1885 to define the precise border between the Russian-held territories and Afghanistan (British sphere of influence). The border in Pamirs was similarly agreed upon in 1895. Speculations about who could seek what are pretty much pointless if they are not backed up by some solid facts.
 
@Bourbonic Plague
There is no way that the UK could be compelled to hand over a single square centimeter of colonial territory. France and Belgium might agree to handover many colonies in order to avoid losing territory in Europe, but the UK won't. In fact, if Germany decides to take vast swathes of Belgium and France or puppet them then the UK might seize the French, Belgian, and German colonies (some of the Asian colonies would probably go to Japan).

This mantra which is repeated like a prayer in nearly all WWI threads is poorly thought out. German control of Antwerp alone is worth more than the whole of Germany’s worthless 1 million square miles of colonial empire. The British would recognize this as well, which is why they’d be happy to offer up Kenya, Nigeria, or countless other tidbits und Africa, if it meant that Germany would keep out of the French Atlantic ports, or hopefully, the Channel ports.

However there is a good chance that it doesn’t come to this as the British may seek the same colonial accommodation with Germany and France as she did with Russia and France
 
Problem with all this is that GB is not drinking lead paint and so will not just do as it did OTL because it did it OTL. If Germany and Russia ally then GB is more likely to stay neutral, it knows its got the weakest army and blockade will not work. Similarly A-H is not committing suicide by taking on Germany , Serbia , Bulgaria ( probably ) and Russia. France can do numbers and so just seethes. Belgium/Holland are trying very hard to look small and inconspicuous and be ignored.
WW1 can only really happen if there are two blocks that think they need to fight and can win. A Germany that has Russia as an ally has no need to fight, France/Britain have no need to give A-H a blank check so if A-H feels suicidal, they just go no thanks.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
@Noscoper
@SealTheRealDeal
@pjmidd
Why would Russia join an alliance with Germany that brings no benefits? Russia allied with France because because victory over Germany and A-H would have resulted in significant territorial gains at the expense of Germany and A-H. Allying with Germany obviously means that Russia can’t expand into Germany. And if expansion into A-H is off the table, what does Russia gain from this alliance?
 
@Noscoper
@SealTheRealDeal
@pjmidd
Why would Russia join an alliance with Germany that brings no benefits? Russia allied with France because because victory over Germany and A-H would have resulted in significant territorial gains at the expense of Germany and A-H. Allying with Germany obviously means that Russia can’t expand into Germany. And if expansion into A-H is off the table, what does Russia gain from this alliance?
Pre 1905
Russia can expand into the East so Mongolia, Xinjiang, Northern Manchuria are targets whilst Germany has its back in the West.
Post 1905
Payback against Japan + the pre 1905 reasons.

A big reason OTL for the anti-German policy was the loans from France, loans from Germany instead would do the reverse. A alliance with Germany also helps isolate A-H in the Balkans so helping Russian influence.
 
Why would Russia join an alliance with Germany that brings no benefits?
In 1908 Russia was a-ok with Austria retaining Galicia and annexing Bosnia so long as Austria supported its claim to the straits. Russia threw a hissy fit when the UK veto'd the matter, but it indicates to me at least that Russia would be willing to accept Austrian Galicia (not that obtaining Austria's poorest province was ever top priority) and Austrian influence in the western Balkans.

As for what it gives them, it encircles Romania (who did not get along well with Russia and had irredentist claims on both of them) and the Austrian fleet could theoretically aid in a an operation to take the Turkish Straits. In a TL where the Ottomans are more successful at suppressing the local nationalists, it could be a very sensible alliance.
 
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