Germany adopts complete defensive strategy September 1942

Kind of inspired by this thread:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...is-retreat-from-tunisia-february-1943.419769/

Where consensus was a earlier German retreat from Tunisia made an Allied invasion of Southern Europe difficult and removed the nasty attrition of trying to compete in Africa. What if the Germans tried such an attrition favorable defense everywhere???

What if in September 1942, about the time List was sacked and Halder was sacked, which obviously was a crisis point, the Germans adopt a completely defensive strategy???? It should have been obvious by that time that Allied strength was increasing everywhere and Germany needed to adopt a strategy of going on the defense and securing favorable attrition ratios to compete. (Germans largely stopped in Caucasus, Stalingrad proving difficult, Stopped in Egypt, Shipping losses increasing in med, Japanese defeat in midway, Allies counterattacking at Guadalcanal, Heavy air losses attacking arctic convoys, heavy air losses at Malta, etc.)

Strategy involves (some examples):

a) Withdrawing from Africa once the going gets tough. (as per above thread). This is the general strategy. Hitler is going to want to hold stuff until pressed. Africa and the Don bend for example, if for political reasons if nothing else, but in this TL withdraws when pressed.
b) Evacuating in October 1942 the northern salients OTL evacuated in Feb 43 to create reserves for the Don (Demyansk etc.)
c) Stopping all offensives in the Caucasus and at Stalingrad, withdrawing a few divisions to the reserve.
d) Focusing production on fighters earlier than OTL, scaling back HE177 for example.
e) After heavy losses in PQ 18 battle, Germans pull air power out of Northern Norway (a couple months earlier than OTL), moving to med, flying top cover cover for convoys.
f) Quit bombing England and focus on the V1 for retribution, instead of the V2.

Can the Germans create a situation where they could stop an invasion of southern Europe, Stop the Soviets at some line (perhaps on the Dnieper eventually). Fight off operation Pointblank better, and thus have a fighting chance of stopping the Allied invasion of France in 1944?
 
Kind of inspired by this thread:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...is-retreat-from-tunisia-february-1943.419769/

Where consensus was a earlier German retreat from Tunisia made an Allied invasion of Southern Europe difficult and removed the nasty attrition of trying to compete in Africa. What if the Germans tried such an attrition favorable defense everywhere???

What if in September 1942, about the time List was sacked and Halder was sacked, which obviously was a crisis point, the Germans adopt a completely defensive strategy???? It should have been obvious by that time that Allied strength was increasing everywhere and Germany needed to adopt a strategy of going on the defense and securing favorable attrition ratios to compete. (Germans largely stopped in Caucasus, Stalingrad proving difficult, Stopped in Egypt, Shipping losses increasing in med, Japanese defeat in midway, Allies counterattacking at Guadalcanal, Heavy air losses attacking arctic convoys, heavy air losses at Malta, etc.)

Strategy involves (some examples):

a) Withdrawing from Africa once the going gets tough. (as per above thread). This is the general strategy. Hitler is going to want to hold stuff until pressed. Africa and the Don bend for example, if for political reasons if nothing else, but in this TL withdraws when pressed.
b) Evacuating in October 1942 the northern salients OTL evacuated in Feb 43 to create reserves for the Don (Demyansk etc.)
c) Stopping all offensives in the Caucasus and at Stalingrad, withdrawing a few divisions to the reserve.
d) Focusing production on fighters earlier than OTL, scaling back HE177 for example.
e) After heavy losses in PQ 18 battle, Germans pull air power out of Northern Norway (a couple months earlier than OTL), moving to med, flying top cover cover for convoys.
f) Quit bombing England and focus on the V1 for retribution, instead of the V2.

Can the Germans create a situation where they could stop an invasion of southern Europe, Stop the Soviets at some line (perhaps on the Dnieper eventually). Fight off operation Pointblank better, and thus have a fighting chance of stopping the Allied invasion of France in 1944?
Pretty good list; how about an addition to (a) with Germans taking over the defensive positions at Pantelleria and Lampedusa from the Italians. Keep the stopper in that particular bottle a bit longer...
 

Deleted member 1487

Pretty good list; how about an addition to (a) with Germans taking over the defensive positions at Pantelleria and Lampedusa from the Italians. Keep the stopper in that particular bottle a bit longer...
The problem there is the amount of ordnance the Allies put on those islands and how indefensible there were. There were Germans there IOTL and Hitler ordered the Luftwaffe to give them air cover, but due to losses they had to pull out and left the Italians to their fate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Corkscrew
An assessment by British analyst Professor Sir Solly Zuckerman reported that the defences had been reduced to 47 percent effectiveness. The intense ten-day air bombardment had substantially reduced the defences. Out of 80 guns bombed, 43 were damaged (10 beyond repair). All control communications were destroyed, along with many gun emplacements, ammunition stores and air-raid shelters. The ease of the operation led to an optimistic assessment of the effectiveness of bombing, which was not always borne out in practice.
PDF study about the campaign:
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/AAFHS/AAFHS-52.pdf
 
The problem there is the amount of ordnance the Allies put on those islands and how indefensible there were. There were Germans there IOTL and Hitler ordered the Luftwaffe to give them air cover, but due to losses they had to pull out and left the Italians to their fate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Corkscrew

PDF study about the campaign:
http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/AAF/AAFHS/AAFHS-52.pdf

A good analysis of real life, but in TTL, maybe the LW could be persuaded to be a bit more persistent.
 
The problem with that is Hitler and his increasingly irrational decisions and drug use.
Kind of surprising he was able to keep going and maintain the kind of schedule he did through out the long period of drug use. My experience with opiates is that they make you feel good, but restless, you can't sleep then for a while, you sleep for a long time. Can't really think the next day. The cycle only gets worse. Might be an interesting POD if his doctor wasn't around to give him the injections.

Much of the OTL irrational decisions are sort of rational when he viewed them from the political lens vs the military. Mussolini will fall and Turkey will declare war if we lose Africa so I have to double down in Africa. Ill just fly in supplies and reinforcements. That will work. It has to.

I have to keep attacking in the east all the way into early December 41, because we told everybody the war with the Soviets was good as won, it would be embarrassing politically to say "I guess we were wrong, this is harder than we thought, lets stop here for the winter".

Some rational military decisions when it was obvious, evacuating from south west France and Greece in 1944 as examples. Here in September 1942 there would have to be some extra piece of intelligence that he would believe to force him on the defensive.

Here he has to admin he made some serious geo-political mistakes by September 1942, at least to himself. In this defensive stance you would still have to sell ultimate victory to the German people and the allies you have brought along. Hitler is still going to have to do some wonder weapons to sell for that purpose.
 
Kind of surprising he was able to keep going and maintain the kind of schedule he did through out the long period of drug use. My experience with opiates is that they make you feel good, but restless, you can't sleep then for a while, you sleep for a long time. Can't really think the next day. The cycle only gets worse. Might be an interesting POD if his doctor wasn't around to give him the injections.


You could also have him do too much due to a mistake by the doctor or have a bad reaction to the combination of stress and drugs. A nervous breakdown, a bad fall down the stairs, an overdose, etc..... Something that puts him out of commission for awhile. He might even be a little more cautious and lucid when he returns, bad injuries tend to do that. You realize that you are fragile and breakable.

But if that happened it is a question of who took power and what they would likely do.
 
Kind of inspired by this thread:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...is-retreat-from-tunisia-february-1943.419769/

Where consensus was a earlier German retreat from Tunisia made an Allied invasion of Southern Europe difficult and removed the nasty attrition of trying to compete in Africa. What if the Germans tried such an attrition favorable defense everywhere???

What if in September 1942, about the time List was sacked and Halder was sacked, which obviously was a crisis point, the Germans adopt a completely defensive strategy???? It should have been obvious by that time that Allied strength was increasing everywhere and Germany needed to adopt a strategy of going on the defense and securing favorable attrition ratios to compete. (Germans largely stopped in Caucasus, Stalingrad proving difficult, Stopped in Egypt, Shipping losses increasing in med, Japanese defeat in midway, Allies counterattacking at Guadalcanal, Heavy air losses attacking arctic convoys, heavy air losses at Malta, etc.)

Strategy involves (some examples):

a) Withdrawing from Africa once the going gets tough. (as per above thread). This is the general strategy. Hitler is going to want to hold stuff until pressed. Africa and the Don bend for example, if for political reasons if nothing else, but in this TL withdraws when pressed.
b) Evacuating in October 1942 the northern salients OTL evacuated in Feb 43 to create reserves for the Don (Demyansk etc.)
c) Stopping all offensives in the Caucasus and at Stalingrad, withdrawing a few divisions to the reserve.
d) Focusing production on fighters earlier than OTL, scaling back HE177 for example.
e) After heavy losses in PQ 18 battle, Germans pull air power out of Northern Norway (a couple months earlier than OTL), moving to med, flying top cover cover for convoys.
f) Quit bombing England and focus on the V1 for retribution, instead of the V2.

Can the Germans create a situation where they could stop an invasion of southern Europe, Stop the Soviets at some line (perhaps on the Dnieper eventually). Fight off operation Pointblank better, and thus have a fighting chance of stopping the Allied invasion of France in 1944?
All very sane and sensible, but if they'd been that they wouldn't be Nazis. Still, leaving that aside, it wouldn't make much difference. Maybe they'd last long enough to be A-bombed.
 
Sensible players of the German side try this on the game board. At best it buys them some months. If the player is not well towards winning by the 1942 turns going over to a complete defense is unlikely to gain a stalemate.
 
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