Germany achieves its goals at Jutland

Vladimir

Banned
During World War I's Battle of Jutland, the German High Seas Fleet had the objective of luring out, trapping, and then destroying a portion of the British Grand Fleet, as their numbers were insufficient to engage the entire British fleet. This was a part of Germany's strategy to reduce the Royal Navy's numerical advantage, break the British blockade of Germany and give German merchantmen access to the sea.

What would have happened had the Germans succeeded in destroying the British force? This was a very real possibility. The British lost three more ships and twice as many men as the Germans did. With different tactics and a little luck, the Germans could have pulled it off. It also might have happened on the next day. During the night, the British moved to cut the Germans off from their bases, hoping to continue the battle the next day, but the Germans slipped out under cover of darkness. If the battle had continued the next day, the British, already having sustained greater losses than the Germans, might have been defeated.

I can imagine that the Royal Navy's strength in numbers would be severely dented, but I am not sure whether even such a grievous loss would be enough to allow the Germans to break the blockade. The Germans also had heavy losses at Jutland, and with their smaller fleet, the British would probably come out on top in a war of attrition. In OTL, the loss of eleven ships probably hit them harder than the loss of fourteen ships hit the British.
 

sharlin

Banned
In this scinario the RN uses the BCF and the 5th battlesquadron, the only really major losses IMO are the 5th BS and the Tiger as they were the most modern ships of their type.

One thing you have to take into account is the damage done to the germans, the 5th BS was hitting targets and straddling them at 19k yards and their guns, when the shell's worked correctly did a fair chunk of damage. Even if the germans managed to sink the entire BCF and the 5th BS you're probably looking at some shot up or badly damaged german DNs. And the Queen Elizabeths of the 5th BS were tough, the Warspite took a good hammering without suffering critical damage so sinking one is not going to be as easy as an exploding battlecruiser.

If the germans stick around for some mad reason after winning the victory they wanted then its still outnumbered by a fresh Grand Fleet who does outgun it. and the Grand Fleet didn't do Beatty's pure derp decision of removing flash protection and storing propellant outside of its designated sections to improve ROF.

If the germans stick around for round two and get caught by the Grand Fleet, then the Germans will walk away the worse for wear.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
It depends on what you mean by destroying the fleet. If you have a specific number and types of ships sunk by both sides, please list. A more precise answer will be possible. I will outline some scenarios

1) Crush defeat for UK. UK losses 14 battleships and 8 battlecruisers. German losses are the same as OTL. The Germans are luck that the did not have many ships sunk, but almost all their ships are damaged and will take months to fix. It will be next Spring before the fleet is ready to sail. The British navy is still roughly the size of the German navy, and France likely transfers some capital ships to Scalpa Flow. Even without extra ships, the Germans will not be able to break the blockade at Scalpa Flow because it is close to the British Base and far from the German bases. This is much the same reason that the British Navy never sent down the main fleet to attack the German Coast. Or put another way, the British fleet was so large, they could afford to make mistakes. In a strange way, heavy losses in the British destroyer fleet will actually help the Germans more by helping the U Boats.

This is not to say that the battle would not help Germany. A loss like this would be crush for the Morale of Britain. I expect Britain to flat out lie and say they won the Battle. If the British population is scared, the may demand a large number of troops be moved back to England to prevent invasion. It may impact whether Romania enters the war. It will likely change the dynamic of how Verdun is fought, if the UK pulls troops from France. It may make England much more willing to negotiate a peace. It may impact American public opinion. It would be a huge victory, but not a decisive victory. It is much like saying what happens if the British Generals mess up in 1916, and get an entire army captured at Ypres.

2) Ok, to the realm of reality. The Germans are able to destroy the entire scout force, but then run away from the Grand Fleet. Germany has many damaged ships, that take a long time to fix. Britain loses 4 BB and 6 BC. It likely changes how Britain builds post war ships. Romania still enters the war on time, but the effects in number 1 are there, just much less. This is more like saying, what if the Battle of the Somme still happens, but the British lose 100K more men. It helps the Germans but not decisively. Any decisive effects would have to be secondary butterflies, such as the British cancel the Somme to rush troops back to defended England when there is no compelling need to do it. Or the British King decides to push the PM to make peace, Or it changes the US fall elections.

(This is near ASB at Jutland without the Germans fixing there codes and breaking the British codes, but lets say on 1/1/1916 the Germans redo all their code books and get serious on signal intelligence because they learned from a spy their codes were broken. Then everything goes right for the Germans, the Zeppelins find the British main fleet and scout fleet hours before the battle. The U-boats are vectored in for many kills, the British Admirals have the worst one day performance in the History of the empire.)
 

Vladimir

Banned
It depends on what you mean by destroying the fleet. If you have a specific number and types of ships sunk by both sides, please list. A more precise answer will be possible. I will outline some scenarios

I never meant any specific number and type of ships. All I meant is that the Germans achieve their goal and maul the British force that met them, which consisted of 151 ships, including 28 battleships. This means sinking or crippling most of them and putting a good portion of the British Grand Fleet out of action. They wanted this to be one of the steps that would break the British blockade.
 

sharlin

Banned
To fully render the entire grand fleet neutralised in a single cataclysmic battle would probably cost you the High Seas fleet too.

Jutland can be broke up into two basic phases.

1 - The BCs fight. The Germans won that and won that good, aided by piss poor bitish shooting, terrible command (Beatty) and weapons grade dumb removal of anti-flash protection in the name of ROF the RN lost one very modern BC and one that was obsolescent in reality. The Brits ran away, saved by the 5th BS who did a fair bit of damage to the germans at ranges they could not reply at. Or even reach. Then the German fleet comes along and the British wisely withdraw.

2 - the fleet fight. In terms of casualties caused the Germans won this, one battlecruiser blowing up, one armoured cruiser blowing up in reply for most of the germans scouting forces being either battered to buggery or sunk (many light cruiser losses on the germans behalf). But the Germans dropped the ball, due to lack of communication and poor visibility the Germans scouts didn't know or report that the whole damn grand fleet was at sea so the High Seas Fleet steamed into the greatest concentration of naval gunpower ever faced, and did the smart thing. Turned around and got the hell out of dodge.
Once safe the Germans turned again right back into that wall of gunfire. The Grand Fleets gunnery wasnt that great and the germans were saved by dodgey british shells but even so when they did get hit it hurt. The German Dreadnough Koenig was nearly a fireworks display herself and there was a huge chance of collision when another german DN took a hit in the steering gear but the shell didn't detonate.
Under that gunfire, unable to effectively reply the German fleet formation started to come apart so they turned and ran off again battered for causing a single hit on the grand fleet.

Now if the Germans stuck to plan and sailed into that maelstrom of firepower to try and match broadside on broadside it would have been suicide. The RN had bigger guns and more of them. The disparity in throw weight was quite formidable, even counting for crap RN shells. If the HSF wanted to kill the Grand Fleet, both fleets would have been mauled beyond recognition with battered survivors struggling home.
 
As you rightly say the German plan was to cut off or intercept an isolated portion of the Grand Fleet and destroy it - this was a victory that was tactically within their capabilities as long as the corollary of the rest of the Grand Fleet not charging to the rescue is added in. Ingenohl almost achieved this in 1914, but turned away at the crucial moment because he couldn't believe his luck and did not trust it.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Instant major changes...

If both fleets are CRUSHED, the USA is suddenly the world's number one navy--and this could have some changes in America's diplomatic position. A candidate with a plank of his platform being "Free Trade and Sailor's Rights," copied from a century or so past, could force Wilson--or the new President--to demand that Britain actually respect America's rights. Result: America can sell to anyone with money...
 
Also remember that the RN had two new battlecruisers and four more 15" Deadnoughts about to come into service in 1916/17 plus large numbers of destroyers and new classes of cruisers in the shipyards. Not to mention the first aircraft carriers on the horizon.

By this time the Germans had two dreadnoughts and one more battlecruiser about to come on stream.

Also two British dreadnoughts weren't present and neither was a battlecruiser. The Germans had almost everything out there on the day.

We can also assume that the Germans would have to stick around longer in order to achieve their objective. Not every unit in the British fleet was as poorly led as Beatty's squadron (not a Beatty fan). The Germans would lose more ships too. We can assume Seydlitz wouldn't get home if exposed to any more shellfire than OTL.

Result the Germans go to submarine warfare.
 
The problem is that the German plan failed the moment the Germans realized the British fleet was coming out in response to what they hoped was a successful trap in the making, at which point the Germans had no intention of taking any further chances.
 
If the HSF wins a crushing victory maybe the Kaiser gets victory fever and tries to go all out to win the western front. Throwing his armies into a giant mincer just like the allies were doing. If that happens the Germans can not afford to take the casualties and maybe the war is shortened.

Beatty had to be the worst Admiral ever to hoist his flag he was a political animal not a naval leader.
 
Beatty had to be the worst Admiral ever to hoist his flag he was a political animal not a naval leader.

This, Beatty was good at developing connections among the sort of people who would help create and maintain his image of a dashing Nelsonian admiral but as a commander he was average at best. Basically his head was stuck so far up his own arse that he could see Ralph Seymour's shoes. The biggest mistake he made at Jutland according to Robert Massie's Castle of Steel was that having argued for ages to have the 5th BS, when he finally had them transferred to his fleet, he left Admiral Evan-Thomas sitting at the dockside in Rosyth and never met him to explain how he planned to use his ships in battle. Ironically it was those very ships that probably saved his bacon during the run to the north when they absorbed shellfire that had proved fatal to BC's while giving the Germans the mauling of their lives.

Of the 4 main admirals at Jutland I'd rank Beatty dead last, Hipper probably had the best day just ahead of Jellicoe then Scheer.
 
This, Beatty was good at developing connections among the sort of people who would help create and maintain his image of a dashing Nelsonian admiral but as a commander he was average at best. Basically his head was stuck so far up his own arse that he could see Ralph Seymour's shoes. The biggest mistake he made at Jutland according to Robert Massie's Castle of Steel was that having argued for ages to have the 5th BS, when he finally had them transferred to his fleet, he left Admiral Evan-Thomas sitting at the dockside in Rosyth and never met him to explain how he planned to use his ships in battle. Ironically it was those very ships that probably saved his bacon during the run to the north when they absorbed shellfire that had proved fatal to BC's while giving the Germans the mauling of their lives.

Of the 4 main admirals at Jutland I'd rank Beatty dead last, Hipper probably had the best day just ahead of Jellicoe then Scheer.

Sigged :D .......
 

BlondieBC

Banned
If the HSF wins a crushing victory maybe the Kaiser gets victory fever and tries to go all out to win the western front. Throwing his armies into a giant mincer just like the allies were doing. If that happens the Germans can not afford to take the casualties and maybe the war is shortened.

Beatty had to be the worst Admiral ever to hoist his flag he was a political animal not a naval leader.

Falkenhayn was attempting to break France at Verdun as this battle was fought. He was making a max effort, so unless something in this battle cause the UK to pull men back to England compare to OTL, it is hard to see Verdun turning out much differently. While there are bizarre butterflies in history, it is real hard to see a crushing victory at Jutland hurt the Germans. Now I can see the British cancelling or scaling back the Somme and moving troops back to England to protect the coastline. This could be decisive in the Germans favor.

Beatty was somewhat below average, but not worst. I would give him a 3 out of 10 that day. He had bad ammo handling procedures on the BC and he had too much distance between the BB and BC squadron, but he did lure the German main fleet towards the British. He could have simply kept charging towards the Germans, and thereby delay the arrival of the Grand fleet at the battle. This would result in the loss of at least one more BC, and might have doomed the BB's. The BB were good ships, but all ships have their limits.
 
There are possible significant consequences from an unambiguous German victory at Jutland. As I suggested in an earlier thread which included a possible route to a lucky victory:

“In Germany, there would be a strong temptation to try again. The German Navy would want its incomplete battleships and battlecruisers built as quickly as possible, which would delay U-boat building (and my battle would also favour destroyer building). They might not want war with America because the addition of an American squadron would restore their enemies' overwhelming superiority (they should not have wanted American involvement OTL but here the problems start quicker). If Scheer was not present for the victory (my suggestion), a voice in favour of U-boat warfare might be removed. I suspect that Hipper was politically more cautious (surprisingly sane for an admiral).

Looking to other powers, Romania might perhaps be influenced to avoid joining the war in 1916.

Looking to Britain, one consequence would be more effort on warship building (especially if U-boat warfare is slowed). Even if they survived, Jellicoe and Beatty would not have continued in command as no commission of enquiry could ignore Beatty's incompetence and Jellicoe would be blamed for his subordinates' errors. That has significant consequences postwar. For example, Jellicoe favoured fortifying Singapore and does not seem to have trusted the Japanese. ... If Britain is short of battlecruisers after Jutland, perhaps the diplomats will be sent to make concessions to Japan on China in return for the Kongos coming to the North Sea?”
 
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