Germany absolutely crushed by Allied offensive 1919

[Catspoke]

POD:
1918: Ludendorff correctly accesses his Allies to be fragile. Wants no offensives from them in 1918, just asks for 4 good Austrian divisions for the southern part of the western front. These 4 Austrian divisions frees up 3 German divisions, two German division for the Balkans, one for the front and one in reserve, 1 German division is left in Italy as a reserve. The Allies are just to bar the door in the South while the Germans win in the west.

The western front goes as OTL, German attacks, Allied counter attacks, 100 days. etc.

With German divisions handy the Balkan front holds in 1918, Without an Austrian June 1918 attack and the Balkan front happening the Italians remain passive. The Turks are crushed as OTL, losing Syria and Iraq but are still in.

November 1918: No desperate fleet order happens, no revolution happens, the German army retreats to the German border, shortens up its line. The Allies are content to build up overwhelming strength over the Winter, German attempts at an armistice are rebuffed (only terms offered are as harsh as OTL), The Allies launch a May 1st 1919 offensive on all fronts, with loads of tanks, planes, strategic bombers. Austrian, Bulgarian and Turkish morale is awful, German morale is weak. After two weeks of hard fighting the Allies are largely racing ahead unopposed.

At sea, the mine barriers have become so effective by March 1919 losses are high, on May 20th a couple of u-boats refuse to sail, when ordered to sink the mutinous u-boats the rest of the German fleet munities too. Communist revolution sweeps Germany hard and fast. Chaos reigns, the Kaiser is arrested. No traditional German government is around to make an armistice and the Allies don't want to deal with groups of communists.

On the other fronts, the Austrians make an armistice May 18th but collapse into the various entities sort of like OTL 1918, Bulgaria and Turkey make surrender armistices like OTL.
Lettow-Vorbeck's force diminishes across Zambia and is trapped and surrenders trying to reach and destroy the Katanga copper mines in the Belgian Congo late January 1919.

So what happens now:
Do the Allies occupy all of Germany and put things in order?
Do the British land at German ports to seize and secure the German warships?
What is the reaction of the German civilians to the Allied occupation (the Allies try to the best of their abilities to feed people)
How far do they go, would the French or Americans send a division or two into Warsaw to help the Poles as a blockade against the communists?
How would this ending effect a Versailles treaty?
What are the effects of a continuing German occupation in Russia and the Caucasus through May 1919?.
A large American army has been committed, larger and there longer than OTL, with more losses and really won the war for the Allies. What are the political effects?
In this time line the German submarine force was utterly defeated and the Allied air force reigned supreme, attacking strategic targets deep in Germany, and ravaging the retreating Germans, Allied light tanks reigned ahead almost as cavalry crushing the retreating enemy, what are the effects on post war weapons development?
What sort of German government would appear postwar?
Is militarism destroyed in Germany forever (kind of like after WW2)?
What happens to the Kaiser in the hand of communist militants as the Allies close in on Berlin?
What are the effects of a longer war on the pandemic?

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

I’m thinking how this would impact the revolution in Russia

 

[Mikestone8]

Do the Allies occupy all of Germany and put things in order?

No- or certainly not for any length of time.

Once the Germans surrende, Entente troops will be desperate to get back home, , and demobilisation will be inevitable. So a prolonged occupation won't be feasible

Is militarism destroyed in Germany forever (kind of like after WW2)?

No. They'll jus t say "If only this that or the other - - we could have won.",

 

[Catspoke]

I’m thinking how this would impact the revolution in Russia

Obviously butterflies, but I don't know of anything that can overcome Soviet advantages really.

For the 6 extra months the Allies are going to be treating the Soviets as German collaborators still. The Allies will launch efforts out of Archangel sort of OTL, but longer, they would try to retake Baku from the Turks. The Allies will be even more war weary though after May 1919 so might want to get out pretty quickly anyway.

More areas are German occupied for longer. Might be a Soviet advantage really. The Germans would want to prop up the Soviets to an extent to keep things peaceful, (of course their ambassador was shot).

If the Germans/Austrians anticipate what is coming they may try harder to prop up Ukrainians in Lvov and places to weaken the Poles.

 

[Catspoke]

No- or certainly not for any length of time.

Once the Germans surrende, Entente troops will be desperate to get back home, , and demobilisation will be inevitable. So a prolonged occupation won't be feasible




No. They'll jus t say "If only this that or the other - - we cold have won.",

Probably this means allowing or helping right wing factions to be in charge in Germany, propping up the German army remnants against the communists.

Certainly the could blame Moltke and think they could won in 1914 tweaking some stuff, the stab in the back theory is a little harder here without the November revolution, by May 1919 the Allied superiority has been demonstrated.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The most important aspect is if this does or does not alter the final peace treaty. If it leads to a significantly more equitable peace then theres immense changes down the line. If not, then there may be immense changes down the line. Odds are you wont end up with the same results as OTL in 1920.

 

[Catspoke]

The most important aspect is if this does or does not alter the final peace treaty. If it leads to a significantly more equitable peace then theres immense changes down the line. If not, then there may be immense changes down the line. Odds are you wont end up with the same results as OTL in 1920.

In practice the Germans really didn't have any military leverage left after the armistice OTL, so this situation isn't much worse
In this TL its largely an American victory, whose treasure, and armies in the field won the conflict, so the American will have even more leverage to get a peace that "will end all wars".
Depending on opinion, the OTL peace wasn't that bad. Remove the guilt clause, and have some reasonable reparations, maybe Germany's military budget of 1913 for 15 years, and immediate entry into League of Nations and its probably equitable enough. If you had some consistent method of plebiscites it would be very equitable.

 

[snerfuplz]

If the war continued into 1919 I'd imagine people would be more amenable to Foch's desire to detach Southern Germany from Germany. This was OTL Foch's thoughts on a push into Germany:

To occupy Berlin would mean an advance of 300 miles, which was a penetration of great depth. The armies would have to pass through a very densely populated district, as well as the best organized district, and the one with the strongest military traditions. To the south, this people would have the support of Bavaria, Württemberg and Baden. It would be a formidable task to keep this population quiet with only 39 divisions, if the German Government really set itself to work up trouble. On the other hand, if steps could be taken by political means to weaken Germany, the situation would be ameliorated. If Southern Germany could be detached by political maneuvres, the population to be kept in order would not be 65 millions, but only 45 millions. If his strategy was directed to that end, and was helped by a separatist policy, it would enable his Armies to reach Berlin. A question he put, therefore, was as to whether the Allied and Associated Governments were willing to deal with the separate Governments of Baden, Wurttemberg and Bavaria, which numbered some 12 to 15 millions of people, and thus help on a solution of the military problem. If, on the other hand, he must go forward into the middle of Central Europe, he would find a resistance which might be more or less great, according to which the danger would be more or less great, while the southern flank of his Army would be exposed. Before he could reach Berlin, he would have to detach so many men to safeguard the position in his rear that only a very enfeebled Army would reach there, and its southern flank would be seriously menaced. Unless the States of South Germany could be detached, as he had suggested, by some special measures, that was the situation to be faced.