Germans Withdraw From Southern and Central Italy?

At one point during the war the British apparently received reliable intelligence that Field Marshal Kesselring was setting up his headquarters in a hotel that was right on the coast in Sicily and planned an operation to insert two dozen commandos by submarine to try and kill him and any other German officers they found in the thirty minutes they'd be ashore. The operation was put on hold however when the submarine was redeployed to attack a supply convoy and by the time they returned Kesselring had left.

So what happens if either the commando operation goes ahead beforehand or Kesselring stays longer and he's killed? As I understand things most of the senior military leadership back in Germany and Hitler favoured abandoning Southern and Central Italy to the Western Allies on the assumption that it couldn't be held without the Italian army, with it only being Kesselring offering his resignation in protest and arguing for a more forward defence that changed Hitler's mind. Here however he's not available to do so, and for the sake of this discussion let's assume his replacement follows orders and retreats to a defensive position similar to our timeline's Gothic Line. What does it do for the Allies to be able to make it all the way up to Marche and Tuscany much more quickly and with few casualties?
 

Deleted member 1487

At one point during the war the British apparently received reliable intelligence that Field Marshal Kesselring was setting up his headquarters in a hotel that was right on the coast in Sicily and planned an operation to insert two dozen commandos by submarine to try and kill him and any other German officers they found in the thirty minutes they'd be ashore. The operation was put on hold however when the submarine was redeployed to attack a supply convoy and by the time they returned Kesselring had left.

So what happens if either the commando operation goes ahead beforehand or Kesselring stays longer and he's killed? As I understand things most of the senior military leadership back in Germany and Hitler favoured abandoning Southern and Central Italy to the Western Allies on the assumption that it couldn't be held without the Italian army, with it only being Kesselring offering his resignation in protest and arguing for a more forward defence that changed Hitler's mind. Here however he's not available to do so, and for the sake of this discussion let's assume his replacement follows orders and retreats to a defensive position similar to our timeline's Gothic Line. What does it do for the Allies to be able to make it all the way up to Marche and Tuscany much more quickly and with few casualties?
Saves them a bunch of losses on the way and let's them start engaging in bombing of the Balkans earlier, but then makes them overconfident when they hit German defenses, which will be even more capable of resisting due to the extra time they will have to build them up as the Allies set up logistical bases in the meantime, plus having more intact forces to resist. I also feel like Churchill will demand and get a landing in the Balkans too given the German withdrawal and opening of the Balkan coast.
 
... I also feel like Churchill will demand and get a landing in the Balkans too given the German withdrawal and opening of the Balkan coast.

This. Or the Yanks win the Mediteranean fight & a earlier invasion of southern France in made, in February or early March 1944. This would interfere a lot less with the Neptune operation as the Amphib fleet has time to redeploy to the UK for a May or June invasion of northern France.

Looking over the reasons the German defense in central Italy collapsed in the spring of 1944 & Kesselring made the decision to withdraw, it seems reasonable the Allies can create some similar conditions and evict the Germans from the Po River basin in the summer of 1944.
 
The major butterflies is that it opens up the Balkans and likely butterflies away Anvil as the Wallies can do Overlord and Balkans in 44, but not Anvil on top of it. For this reason, I completely disagree with WIking. Kesselring was right. If Germany gave Italy up without a fight, then they just allowed themselves to lose Romania and Bulgaria about 6 months earlier. Germany is then forced to completely withdraw from Ukraine. Finland, perhaps sensing premature German weakness capitulates earlier. This means AGN folds sooner and Germany still get smashed up in Belarus roughly on schedule. The result is that Germany is about two to three months closer to capitulation and the Russians absorb more casualties fighting these extra Germans.
 
Someday I'd like to see a solid logistics plan for army group size operations in the Balkans. Details like port capacity, railways, paved roads, capacity of bridges, lumber capacity of the forests (the Allies used several millions of board feet of lumber rebuilding bridges in August-October. France & Belgium had a a large amount of steel lying around & a skilled work force to work it. Was there a comparable amount available in the Balkans, or would the Allies have to bring yet more material along? Did the Germans maintain dozens of paved airfields in the Balkans in comparable density to France & Belgium? Was there a telegraph/telephone system with thousands of technicians in the Balkans comparable to to what existed in France & Belgium? In northwest Europe the Allies gained a highly cooperative population with good industrial skills, reducing the need to send support units. Would that be the case in the Balkans?
 

Deleted member 1487

Someday I'd like to see a solid logistics plan for army group size operations in the Balkans. Details like port capacity, railways, paved roads, capacity of bridges, lumber capacity of the forests (the Allies used several millions of board feet of lumber rebuilding bridges in August-October. France & Belgium had a a large amount of steel lying around & a skilled work force to work it. Was there a comparable amount available in the Balkans, or would the Allies have to bring yet more material along? Did the Germans maintain dozens of paved airfields in the Balkans in comparable density to France & Belgium? Was there a telegraph/telephone system with thousands of technicians in the Balkans comparable to to what existed in France & Belgium? In northwest Europe the Allies gained a highly cooperative population with good industrial skills, reducing the need to send support units. Would that be the case in the Balkans?
A starter would be try to find the logistics info for the Salonika army group in WW1 and compare that to BEF data for France in WW1. Then once you have a relative ratio compare that to 1940 and 1944 BEF logistic info. That might give you a rough idea. Otherwise good luck trying to find British reports about a Churchillian fantasy from WW2. Not sure if the US ever bothered to do a study on the subject in WW2 or in the 1950s.

I'd say the Allies would have to bring a bunch of stuff with them, as the Germans had stripped the labor and raw materials in the area bare to fund the war effort. Starvation related problems were quite serious as well. The Balkans would have been a massive logistics investment that would be comparable to at least French North Africa.
 
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I'd say the Allies would have to bring a bunch of stuff with them, as the Germans had stripped the labor and raw materials in the area bare to fund the war effort. Starvation related problems were quite serious as well. The Balkans would have been a massive logistics investment that would be comparable to at least French North Africa.

I was thinking south Italy in terms of civilian food imports, and coal for winter heat, and medical supplies. How many tons of DDT to suppress fleas and lice between Athens & Belgrade?
 

Deleted member 1487

I was thinking south Italy in terms of civilian food imports, and coal for winter heat, and medical supplies. How many tons of DDT to suppress fleas and lice between Athens & Belgrade?
Based on WW1, a lot. Of course if you can find the German info about their logistics in the region, that would help.
 
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