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[FONT=&quot]Another Hat tip to Blitzkrieg Legend, by Karl-Heinz Frieser[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]There has been a lot of speculation about what would have happened if the Germans had taken Dunkirk before the British got most the BEF out. The halt orders have been debated endlessly. There is another possibility though. According to Frieser, there was a realistic chance that the Germans could have cut off four of the nine BEF divisions that were headed for Dunkisk (okay, not quite half, but close), along with quite a few additional French divisions in a pocket around Lille. Historically the Germans trapped roughly 35,000-40,000 French troops in the city where the French fought to the last bullet to keep pressure off the evacuation at Dunkirk.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Let’s say the Germans close the trap around a big hunk of the BEF and a considerably larger part of the French army at Lille. Presumably the remainder of the BEF and a smaller contingent of French troops than were historically available still form a perimeter around Dunkirk. I suppose it’s possible that the BEF might launch an attempt to break through to the trapped troops, but given the demoralization of the period, I doubt that they would risk the remaining troops in that way.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]So, a little over half the BEF and a smaller contingent of French troops arrives at Dunkirk. They set up a perimeter, smaller and weaker than the historic one, and the British start withdrawing troops. The evacuation probably wouldn’t have gone as well as it did historically because the perimeter would be either smaller or weaker, probably both. If the Germans can get within artillery range of the port facilities, the evacuation quickly becomes a bloody shambles. There is also going to be an irreducible minimum number of men left behind. That’s inherent in having to guard a perimeter. Historically about 30,000-40,000 French soldiers and a few British troops didn’t make it out.[/FONT]
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