I agree that the best thing Germany can do is use its position to achieve status quo ante. They have to be aware that the German population has had its fill and is about to follow the Russian example. Demanding reparations from an enemy with its knife to your throat like the Germans are to Paris in this scenario is beyond stupid, so the French might be willing to deal.
Again, the Germans need to acknowledge that their colonies in Africa were left alone by everyone else for a reason. They are worthless.
So a deal where Russian Poland is independent, they retreat out of Belgium and give up the colonies just to get the war to stop and they can have their economy recover is a good one. Short of actually capturing Paris, it is as good as it gets.
I'm not so sure about a status quo as Germany's best option. Wilson's negotiator in the Hague was hinting as late as January 1918 that Germany could get a freehand in the east for letting Belgium go.
At a minimum the gains in the East are recognized in this scenario IMHO, even without a French revolution. Luxembourg is probably annexed as well, but Belgium is the sticky part. Ludendorff kept the civilian government in the dark about negotiations throughout 1918 until about September, but here, especially if the other generals are less optimistic, they could leak information to the politicians to pressure Ludendorff to cut a deal before all is lost.
Even as late as 1918 I'm willing to bet if the Germans hit the Allies in the right spot they could get a pretty favorable peace. Nevertheless Belgium is going to have to remain independent, though it could conceivably lose territory at the border, and the German colonies are gone.
Coupled with holding on to Brest-Litovsk and avoiding reparations while gaining Luxembourg is a sweet deal: Germany has virtually decimated her continental rivals and ensured post war her military dominance. Russia is in civil war and France is devastated, heavily in debt, and without the means to rebuild or repay what it owes. It ceases to be more than a regional power without Versailles. Britain is also heavily in debt, but can probably pay it back after taking an economic hit for several decades.
Germany though has mostly internal debt and even with inflation can probably pay her debt off the quickest. Her industry is flush with cash from the war and with fewer workers after they war they can command higher wages. Especially when AH falls apart and gets the industrial bits annexed into the Reich, Germany will be relatively stronger than ever.