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Lets say with a POD on September 9th (the days Hitler took over Army Group A after the German attack in the Caucasus had largely stalled out, also the latest attack had just been repulsed in Egypt, and Japanese repulses in the Pacific at Midway, Guadalcanal and Milne Bay, plus the Maikop oilfields were completely wrecked upon capture showing how difficult is was going to be to get oil out of the region anyway). The Germans go on the defensive. Something needs to change vs OTL to get Hitler to do this though:

The change in this time line is that somewhere early along the way of HE 177 development Goering orders the HE177 development as a standard level bomber, with no dive bombing capability, so its more reliable and ready earlier. By September 1942, the early testing of this plane shows it to be a solid long range bomber, whose production over the Winter 1942-1943 will yield the bomber in significant numbers.

So Goering who happens to be at HQ on this September 9th, notes the depressed Hitler, and boasts in his typical way, that with the new HE177 he will be able to win the Battle of Atlantic, level Malta, and attack Soviet Industry directly in 1943, changing the course of the war, without these costly land offensives. Hitler, impressed by flashy new weapons, also knows that the new Tiger and Panther will be available in significant numbers in 1943 too even if Goering is boasting a bit, plus other "wonder" weapons are in the pipeline.

So on September 10th Hitler orders the German armies into a defensive posture in both the Soviet Union and Africa (and is mentally prepared to make small withdrawals under pressure if need be, but wants to keep most of the territory gained because he is that way, and for forward bases for the new aircraft).

(By this time the German have reached the Volga north of the city and control the high ground to the west of Stalingrad but haven't attacked the city itself, which they won't in this TL). They have launched their first but not their second attack on Tupase which they won't in this TL, no further attacks along the Terek either.

What is the course of the war going forward?
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