Germans Build Submarines Instead of Warships?

perfectgeneral

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Germans Build Submarines Instead of Warships?
Let's say that starting before the Nazi take-over, maybe 1930 or 1931, key figures in the German navy become convinced that U-boats rather than battleships are the future of naval warfare. They do studies of contemporary designs and do paper designs of their own, then when Hitler comes to power, convince him that submarines would give Germany a way to leapfrog the navies of their potential enemies. As a result, instead of building destroyers, cruisers, battlecruisers and then battleships, the Germans build more and larger submarines. As the silent service, the U-boat only navy seeks to remain secret. Surfacing only at night. Building within secure assembly sheds. Docking in underground pens.

reference: http://www.uboat.net/
U-boat production:
Year (OTL) ATL


1933 (0) 8
1934 (0) 16
1935 (14) 16
1936 (21) 20
1937 (1) 40
1938 (9) 40
1939 (18) 60 200
1940 (50) 200
1941^ (199) 250
1942~ (237) 300
1943* (284) 350
1944 (229) 300
1945 (91) 120

Total: (1153) 1720

^ radar detection fitted~ Ju 290 long range naval bomber starts production*Snorkel fitted
Historically, the Germans had 63 U-boats, some light ships, one partially completed carrier and two battlecruisers by the time the war began. Figure that in this scenario they have no surface fleet to speak of and 200 U-boats. Double that in a years time. Since they regard U-boats as a serious threat they have quite a few destroyers to protect Baltic and coastal trade. These might be enough to conduct an invasion of Norway as OTL.

Problems: (1)The Navy historically was reluctant to allow the U-boat arm to have carte blanche, in spite of noted success in the previous war.
(2) It takes a while to get a good submarine design. The first three years production (40) will only be fit for training vessels.
(3) A different German fleet would presumably mean a somewhat different British fleet at start of war. How secret could they keep the U-boat navy? If they succeed might tensions with Britain be markedly lower?
(4) The Germans would have to develop the ancillary equipment to make the U-boats worthwhile, including effective replenishment at sea.
(5) Ultra

So how would this play out?
Would this hurt or help the Germans?
 
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Two big problems.

First you just sank the Anglo-German naval treaty 12-18 months early. British dockyards start clearing slips for a few hundred corvettes...
German has zilch chance of keeping it secret, Britain had pwned the German naval building program.

Second, submarines used much more of certain strategically-limited materials like copper per ton than surface ships did. So if you build more, what are you going to cut back on (it isnt just about the steel, although they needed higher quality steel as well)
 
Wasn't Raeder very much a surface ship guy?

Also you are going to have broken the Anglo-German Naval Agreement at some point in 1937, less than 2 years after you agreed to it. I doubt very much that you could disguise such a thing. The requirements for the steel, engines etc, not to mention the training required (and dockyards needed) are all going to be noticed.

EDIT: Ninja'd by the dragon
 
It would probably help the germans more than the British and allied but would cause problems if they ever attempted anything like Norway campaign because the Royal Navy would not feel the threat of heavy units against their forces, the arctic convoys would also be easier and it would free resources to be focused on escorting.
 
Its interesting to see the British reaction to German putting out 18 U-boats in 1939 (especially the people who keep assuming the RN just sits back driking Pink Gins...)

1939 - germany produces 19 U-boats

Britain orders 56 corvettes (this was the PRE-war program)
Also some 4 sloops.
So thats oubuilding at around 3:1....
 

perfectgeneral

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I'm not looking to make this successful, if just feeling it out.

I get the Naval Treaty objection (which assumes total discovery of inland stores), but how many subs did the British have? I think historically the U-boat fleet was well within the limit.
 

perfectgeneral

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It would probably help the germans more than the British and allied but would cause problems if they ever attempted anything like Norway campaign because the Royal Navy would not feel the threat of heavy units against their forces, the arctic convoys would also be easier and it would free resources to be focused on escorting.

This certainly makes the northern ports harder to take initially, but land based air cover and wolf packs still make hovering outside Norwegian waters a risky option for the RN.
 
If this causes an increase in British submarine production to counter then it is probably a good thing - we could have done with more U Class and fleet submarines in the Med.

This certainly makes the northern ports harder to take initially, but land based air cover and wolf packs still make hovering outside Norwegian waters a risky option for the RN.

Agreed but perhaps they will be more confortable about sending in battleships and heavy support to annihilate the supply lines and transport convoys during the early stages.
 
I'm not looking to make this successful, if just feeling it out.

I get the Naval Treaty objection (which assumes total discovery of inland stores), but how many subs did the British have? I think historically the U-boat fleet was well within the limit.

The RN hadn't built up to its treaty limits in subs, so they would probably have built more - one use of subs at the time was anti-sub patrols
 

perfectgeneral

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45%

(f) In the matter of submarines, however, Germany, while not exceeding the ratio of 35:100 in respect of total tonnage, shall have the right to possess a submarine tonnage equal to the total submarine tonnage possessed by the Members of the British Commonwealth of Nations. The German Government, however, undertake that, except in the circumstances indicated in the immediately following sentence, Germany's submarine tonnage shall not exceed 45 percent. of the total of that possessed by the Members of the British Commonwealth of Nations. The German Government reserve the right, in the event of a situation arising, which in their opinion, makes it necessary for Germany to avail herself of her right to a percentage of submarine tonnage exceeding the 45 per cent. above mentioned, to give notice this effect to His Majesty's Government in the United Kingdom, and agree that the matter shall be the subject of friendly discussion before the German Government exercise that right.
'Breaking' the 45% limit would break the treaty. Asking to exceed would need a very good reason. Again, how many British submarine boats is that?

L-class (training) x3 (3x 1,000t)
HMS_M3 a mine-layer of serious tonnage (1,594t)
Oberon Class (3x 1,311t)
Odin class (6x 1,781t)
Parthian class (5x 1,760t) Poseidon lost before 1937
Rainbow class (4x 1,763t)
S class (2x 640t, 8x670t) in 1937 - later not counted
River Class (3x 2,206t)
Grampus class minelayers (1x 1,768t, 3x 1,810t) 1 launched in Dec 1937 not counted

About 55,500t of submarine boats.

Later classes:
45% of 55,491t is 24,970.95t of surfaced displacement for the U-boats up to 1937.

(C)Coastal boats: about 250t
(A)Atlantic boats: about 750t
(L)Long Range boats: about 1050t

Maybe add 50t each type as this is to be the pride of the fleet.

1933 (0) 8 - {8C = 2,400t}
1934 (0) 16 - {16C = 4,800t}
1935* (14) 16 - 16C = 4,800t
1936 (21) 20 - 12C = 3,600t, {6A = 4,800t, 2L = 2,200t}
1937 (1) 40 - 12C = 3,600t, {22A = 17,600t, 6L = 6,600t} / 64C, {28A,8L} or 19,200t {31,200t}**
1938 (9) 40 - 30A = 24,000t, 10L = 11,000t / 64C, 58A, 18L or 85,400t ***
1939 (18) 60 /200 - 45A = 36,00t, 15L = 16,500t / 64C, 103A, 33L or 137,900t (unable to conceal size of fleet by eve of war)

{attempted secrecy of new model}
* Jun 1935 Anglo-German Naval Agreement allows U-boats up to 45% of RN tonnage.
** So unless the new models are found this still complies with the Anglo-German Naval Agreement.
Refits of the 1933 model C boats makes it look like production in 1936 and 1937 is 16 boats too.
***Looks like it might breach here! All depends on the level of concealment.

This is still much less than OTL total naval tonnage. Might the 45% limit be waived? What do the Nazis build with all the extra steel left over? Trucks? Great for the autobahns. Exports to fascist pals? No treaty limit. Might need to start a strategic store of fuel.
 
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perfectgeneral

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The RN hadn't built up to its treaty limits in subs, so they would probably have built more - one use of subs at the time was anti-sub patrols

More subs for the RN means a few more for Germany too. While not as many, the U-boats hurt Britain more than the RN boats hurt Germany.
 

perfectgeneral

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Agreed but perhaps they will be more comfortable about sending in battleships and heavy support to annihilate the supply lines and transport convoys during the early stages.
Good point. They might cut off the Norway invasion further south. But that air cover is a big risk. Heavy losses on both sides?
 
Normally when we construct lopsided weapons systems emphasis timelines, we glory in the negative effects on the side that produces a lopsided disposition.

Apart from the high costs of this strategy, it is going to be brittle. German strategic naval systems were not brilliant, and their commerce operational planning wasn't either. Their signals were lacking in serious analytical staff.

Sure they may get two years of happy times with wolfpacks possible, but this may prove an inestimable advantage for the United Kingdom. For example: Bomber Command might get neutered, saving thousands of lives and millions of pounds.

This will take the United Kingdom to different economic crises than the ones we knew, but it won't change significant elements of the Atlantic commerce war. It seems "the same, only more so" with more dead German submariners.

yours,

Sam R.
 

perfectgeneral

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Your phrasing rolls off the tongue like it has been well rehearsed, so I ask you, 'How so?'.

Lopsided is just another name for asymmetrical.
The costs are less not more.
Your faith in the altruism of Bomber Command is ill founded.
It won't change significant elements of the Atlantic commerce war?
 
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