Germanicus defeated at Idistavisus

Could the alliance of Germanic tribes under Arminius and Inguiomer find a way to defeat Germanicus at the Weser River? What would the long term political effects of such a defeat entail for both Roman and Germanic politics?
 
I've been wondering this for the longest of times myself since I've made a semi-ASB alternate history universe based on this very POD. All I know is that it would give Arminius some serious status and mess with the Roman Empire big time. I wonder if Rome would send another expedition against the Germans? It basically means the Germans are the biggest threat to Rome since Carthage and all.

If Rome does send another army against Germania (and loses again?), could Arminius gain the political power to become a true king in Germania with his prestige and the fact that he's defeated the Romans so many times?

Early Imperial Roman politics are certain to be messed up too. Rome would be best off ignoring Germania after this second defeat and focus on holding the borders against the Parthians. Rebels could be a problem too with these two defeats (thinking of Jewish rebels in particular). The Germans might push to the Rhine and establish the Roman-German frontier at basically where the France-Germany border is now.
 
I feel that Arminius' position in the Cherusci/German alliance would still be up in the air, even following another decisive victory against the Romans. While the Germanic tribes valued heroic deeds achieved in battle, they valued their own independence and liberty even more. It's difficult to see how Arminius would be able to further consolidate the alliance into a proper confederation, seeing how fears of this occurring directly lead to his assassination OTL. Yet perhaps some quick political maneuvering on his part could outwit his in-laws/tribal opponents.

As for Roman political life, the death of Germanicus, as well as the loss of another 3-4 legions, would be a colossal blow to Rome's prestige. The psychological trauma of losing even more legions to that gods-forsaken land would make it political suicide to push for even more retaliations. Compound the threat of even more rebellions in recently-conquered Dacia, and you have a political shitstorm brewing.
 
I feel that Arminius' position in the Cherusci/German alliance would still be up in the air, even following another decisive victory against the Romans. While the Germanic tribes valued heroic deeds achieved in battle, they valued their own independence and liberty even more. It's difficult to see how Arminius would be able to further consolidate the alliance into a proper confederation, seeing how fears of this occurring directly lead to his assassination OTL. Yet perhaps some quick political maneuvering on his part could outwit his in-laws/tribal opponents.

As for Roman political life, the death of Germanicus, as well as the loss of another 3-4 legions, would be a colossal blow to Rome's prestige. The psychological trauma of losing even more legions to that gods-forsaken land would make it political suicide to push for even more retaliations. Compound the threat of even more rebellions in recently-conquered Dacia, and you have a political shitstorm brewing.

At least we'd be spared Tacitus' gushing about how great Germanicus was, though. :p
 
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