German WWI Victory: Future Coalition Wars?

During the "U.S. vs. Kaiserreich" discussion, I came up with the notion that the British would try to undermine German hegemony in continental Europe in the same manner they did Napoleon's regime. I also figured they'd prevent the Germans from taking possession of other countries' colonies.

Soo...

Say there's a French collapse before the U.S. intervenes. The Royal Navy cuts off the French colonies from the European mainland and if need be occupies them to stop them from being handed over to Germany.

Now what?

Assuming a peace of exhaustion ends the war soon afterward, how long until Britain bankrolls a "War of the X Coalition" to take Germany down a peg or two?

I'm assuming Italy and the new USSR would represent logical allies, since the Soviets are going to want the Brest-Litovsk territory back and Italy has blooded itself against the Isonzo with little to show for it. Not sure if Piave would have happened yet.
 
Great Britain has been bled white with OTL losses plus the men and material lost or captured during the French collapse, plus is a debtor nation itself and therefore in no position to bankroll the wars of other nations.


Assuming Italy hasn't simply repented the decision to break with the Central Powers you have a country which proved unable to win a single victory over Austria-Hungary, despite the latter being bogged down in Serbia and roughly handled by Russia, which took heavy losses and whose industry is demonstrably incapable of equipping forces capable of defeating Austria-Hungary, let alone Germany.


Germany may well not permit the USSR to survive and whatever government does form in Russia will be severely crippled by the loss of the Baltic States, Finland, Belarus, Ukraine and the Caucausus...and German troops had already advanced beyond the boundaries of the Brest-Litovsk agreement, suggesting that a third round of German demands was being considered. In terms of population Russia will be reduced by about one third but in agriculture, industry and vital resources for that industry Russia will be weakened to a much greater degree.


The proposed coalition consists of Italy, incapable of defeating Austria-Hungary, and Russia, dramatically weakened and forced to face a more powerful Germany without France. The British may consider the idea but Italy and Russia won't.
 
I forgot to include France on the list, although their manpower losses would have been severe.

And why are you so certain they WON'T, especially if geopolitical circumstances change?

The degree of certainty you bring to any AH discussion in which you and I have clashed is a bit vexing, considering that's impossible to prove a counterfactual.
 
I forgot to include France on the list, although their manpower losses would have been severe.

And why are you so certain they WON'T, especially if geopolitical circumstances change?

The degree of certainty you bring to any AH discussion in which you and I have clashed is a bit vexing, considering that's impossible to prove a counterfactual.

Why would other nation dare to fight against Germany if did not have a chance to win?
Accepting the Germany's hegemony is the better option, as long as the German hegemon respect certain boundaries.
 
I would imagine a coalition war would be a stretch but a coalition economic bloc might be feasible.

Trouble is that access to Russia will only be via British India, especially if japan maintains a presence in the Russian Far East. A British sponsored railway connecting British India with Russia might be a project considered particularly if the Urals / West Siberian mineral and oil deposits are developed. But not if the Communists win.

Italy would be a basket case, France not much better

Kaiserreich would have a few decades in the sun until its inherent weakness (nationalites question) brings it down as it did for A-H
 
Why am I certain that what won't?:confused:

France won't just have severe manpower losses but territorial losses, plus an even larger swathe of territory will be forcibly demilitarized.
 
Very Difficult... even it's close to the Cliche of A reverse ww2 with the Entente Being the Axis... Britain Either will suffer an economic collapse for the lack of suppor in Gold Standart(the Nation with most gold reserves were USA for their trade and... Germany for the demand of Gold for every orders in their allies) so that wil be hard... even if Britain want a Round two... maybe we going to have another english civil war...

If France doesn't suffer a lot in WW1(only losing a minor territory) in a second round.. would means the end of france as power and losing every east of the Seine except paris.

And Russia/USSR... that can measn the end of russia as a state and nation
 
Guys

I think no doubt Britain would seek to undermine German dominance, simply as a matter of survival. It may not be militarily as except in naval terms no near term coalition can match Germany and her allies. However there are a number of options:

a) Very likely there will be some sort of imperial tariff, both to help recovery of the economic base and seek to hurt Germany by denying it the former unrestricted access to imperial markets. This will of course also upset the US and you could end up with 3 basic regional zones. Britain would seek to add as many areas as possible to the 'British' trade area for both political and economic advantages. [Given the attitudes of the other two zone leaders this could be fairly effective].

b) There could well be subtle support for the various groups opposing German occupations, especially in eastern Europe. This would probably even include Bolshevik and other such extreme groups. There is likely to be a lot of people resenting German occupation, especially if the war time domination by the army continues. This is likely to be highly costly to Germany even without intervention by Britain or other powers.

c) There are a number of allies that might be possible. Italy and France, while they probably won't want another war, will also be fearful of further extortions from Germany. Hence a defensive alliance would be pretty attractive to them. Whatever's left in Russia after the dusk settles will also not want to be totally dominated by Germany. Austria is probably too tightly tied to Germany, although Karl might seek to obtain some independence but I could see the Ottomans possibly also getting restive if too much of their economy seems to be German dominated.

The big problem Germany has if it wins and tries to enforce military dominance is the same as that Napoleon faces. Especially after such a bitter and costly war there will be pressure for Germany to enjoy the fronts of victory and hence bare down heavily on it's defeated foes and probably some of it's former allies. Hence there is scope for Britain to offer a continued source of independence.

As such, unless it's a very quick and relatively cheap German victory, which seems extremely unlikely, I could see German hegemony being fairly short-lived. It might require another conflict to take it down or the continued attrition of the burdens of empire.

Steve
 
I doubt Germany would survive very long in a late victory. They were bled worse then Britain in the war and had serious food shortages. Meanwhile, the Soviets would probably never trust them while they would be in no shape to fight the Soviets after 4 years of desperate fighting and having to hold down France while keeping Austria together and probably having to deal with the Italians and most of the Balkans.
 
A lot of it is going to depend on how post-victory Germany runs its empire, and what direction it's politics develop towards. A Germany that retains the de-facto wartime military dictatorship and rules with an iron fist over its conquered territories is very different from a Germany where the Social Democrats take over and deliver a peace dividend to the German people while trying to find a modus vivendi with the rest of Europe.
 
I think the UK at least needs the US as a silent partner in any seapower strategy to take down the continental hegemon. Ruinously expensive otherwise.

During the "U.S. vs. Kaiserreich" discussion, I came up with the notion that the British would try to undermine German hegemony in continental Europe in the same manner they did Napoleon's regime. I also figured they'd prevent the Germans from taking possession of other countries' colonies.

Soo...

Say there's a French collapse before the U.S. intervenes. The Royal Navy cuts off the French colonies from the European mainland and if need be occupies them to stop them from being handed over to Germany.

Now what?

Assuming a peace of exhaustion ends the war soon afterward, how long until Britain bankrolls a "War of the X Coalition" to take Germany down a peg or two?

I'm assuming Italy and the new USSR would represent logical allies, since the Soviets are going to want the Brest-Litovsk territory back and Italy has blooded itself against the Isonzo with little to show for it. Not sure if Piave would have happened yet.
 
Maybe it hasn't to be a war. What if the Brits supported the right groups in A-H or the Ottoman Empire, so they'll fall apart? I don't think Germany can suppress a whole continent AND defend against Soviet Russia forever.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Say there's a French collapse before the U.S. intervenes. The Royal Navy cuts off the French colonies from the European mainland and if need be occupies them to stop them from being handed over to Germany.

Now what?

If Germany acts a tiny bit benovolent they could very well turn France to their side in this scenario.
 
If Germany acts a tiny bit benovolent they could very well turn France to their side in this scenario.

HJ Tulp

That's the key word. If they act more moderately then they can gain a lot of relief. However the general talk and assumption seems to be massive territorial gains, looting of assets and keeping the heel firmly on any potential rivals who have been occupied/defeated. That's not a very good hearts and minds approach.;)

If they decided on a return of their colonies [although could be awkward with Japan] and minimal/no western or other colonial annexations, then it would be far more likely that they would be given a free hand in eastern Europe. Especially since that would leave them to suppress any Bolshevik empire in the east. Britain would be unhappy with German dominance, as would other powers but those in the west would probably lack the will to do anything significant to oppose them.

Steve
 
That's the key word. If they act more moderately then they can gain a lot of relief. However the general talk and assumption seems to be massive territorial gains, looting of assets and keeping the heel firmly on any potential rivals who have been occupied/defeated. That's not a very good hearts and minds approach.;)

Absolutely.

However, I think that Germany will face some serious interior problems after the war. If Germany won, the old elites wouldn't be as discredited as they were IOTL. Nevertheless, there will be a huge pressure toward modernization and liberalization. I doubt that a weakened democratizing Germany will be able - or willing, for that matter - to keep down its vassal states.

To conclude: a victorious Kaiserreich will get a continental Empire it will barely be able to hold down with or without British interference, and due to internal pressure it will soon cease to be the very Kaiserreich which might have been able to do this from an institutional point of view.

Therefore, I'd assume a gradual liberalization for the vassal states as well, which gain more and more independence. In turn, political dominance of Germany immediately after the war will be exchanged for economic and cultural importance over large parts of continental Europe.
 
The US has the similar position to Britain in Napoleonic times, and one wonders whether they would look to undermine the global reach of the new victorious Germany in some way? Especially as Japan is likely to have pushed itself up the list of powers at the same time, and the US is either going to go all isolationist in a world where isolation is a lot more full of negative consequences, or have to act to undermine its main rivals

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The US has the similar position to Britain in Napoleonic times, and one wonders whether they would look to undermine the global reach of the new victorious Germany in some way? Especially as Japan is likely to have pushed itself up the list of powers at the same time, and the US is either going to go all isolationist in a world where isolation is a lot more full of negative consequences, or have to act to undermine its main rivals

I think they'd do both: isolationism with respect to Europe - as before the war - yet presence in Asia. After all, the Philippines are next to Japan so Japan/China is subjectively closer than Europe. Furthermore, the recent war in Europe should have shown that engagement there is far too costly. Not to speak of possible defaults of some allied wartime debt to the US ITTL...
 
Guys

I think no doubt Britain would seek to undermine German dominance, simply as a matter of survival. It may not be militarily as except in naval terms no near term coalition can match Germany and her allies. However there are a number of options:

a) Very likely there will be some sort of imperial tariff, both to help recovery of the economic base and seek to hurt Germany by denying it the former unrestricted access to imperial markets. This will of course also upset the US and you could end up with 3 basic regional zones. Britain would seek to add as many areas as possible to the 'British' trade area for both political and economic advantages. [Given the attitudes of the other two zone leaders this could be fairly effective].

b) There could well be subtle support for the various groups opposing German occupations, especially in eastern Europe. This would probably even include Bolshevik and other such extreme groups. There is likely to be a lot of people resenting German occupation, especially if the war time domination by the army continues. This is likely to be highly costly to Germany even without intervention by Britain or other powers.

c) There are a number of allies that might be possible. Italy and France, while they probably won't want another war, will also be fearful of further extortions from Germany. Hence a defensive alliance would be pretty attractive to them. Whatever's left in Russia after the dusk settles will also not want to be totally dominated by Germany. Austria is probably too tightly tied to Germany, although Karl might seek to obtain some independence but I could see the Ottomans possibly also getting restive if too much of their economy seems to be German dominated.

The big problem Germany has if it wins and tries to enforce military dominance is the same as that Napoleon faces. Especially after such a bitter and costly war there will be pressure for Germany to enjoy the fronts of victory and hence bare down heavily on it's defeated foes and probably some of it's former allies. Hence there is scope for Britain to offer a continued source of independence.

As such, unless it's a very quick and relatively cheap German victory, which seems extremely unlikely, I could see German hegemony being fairly short-lived. It might require another conflict to take it down or the continued attrition of the burdens of empire.

Steve


Hi,

i doubt your points are true

What kind of victory do we talk about?

Wich year?
say 1914, the war is over to fast - so the defeated BEF will be happy to be send home, france - the evil enemy of germany, trying do destroy it will suffer (in military standards, say, no army or navy at all), but not in colonies or areas...

the russians will suffer also, but not to extreme, cause an early vitory means the zar is still in power. So no problem.

Italy - being not in the war is no problem, they will still live with germany

poland - being no own country will not suffer more - so nothing change to 1913

only UK will suffer big, cause their dominace is gone - forever. The USA will take place one and never give it up.

if UK tries a second round, they have russia (beaten bad, so no thankyou), france (no troops, only a country defenceless) and italy (no conflict with germany), a-h, with internal problems, but it is ally nr1 for germany -no interests

the us of a is interested in free lanes for econonmy, if the brits try an embargo they will be beaten by germany AND the usa... nothing the empire survive long.

So round2 isn´t realistic

If you say, germany wins late - things will differ

France - is helpless and will be full of german troops, german subs in french harbours :) so the subwar will get much more interested than in 1917/18
Italy - utterly beaten even by AH - no way the people will fight another stupid war against germany, the country that did nothing evil
Russia - well - russia is in no shape to do anything... at best the whites win against the reds.. but the germans will have a huge booster by the large portion of former russian industry/land.
The liberated people will be not unhappy with german "support", at last in the first 5 - 10 years
the poles will be angry, but with no direct support this is only a minor matter - say 2 german corps in 2 weeks and it is over - nothing the poles can do about it
the usa - if war is over before declaration of war - the same as in the early win scenario... if not, they will make a deal.

UK is doomed in both scenarios, if they do not accept german victory...
the osmans are no enemy of the germans, but of the brits. so a alliance between these two nations is not realistic for the 20ties or 30ties.

So no, the economic booster of the continental german economic alliance will earlier stablize the whole thing, only the brits will be unhappy - a good thing

If the brits try to much things the germans do the same - including uprisings in the large british colonies... i bet the brits will roll over very soon

also no merchant war - if you are not the biggest guy that can hurt his enemies, you kick only you
 
informationfan

Hi,

i doubt your points are true

What kind of victory do we talk about?

Wich year?
say 1914, the war is over to fast - so the defeated BEF will be happy to be send home, france - the evil enemy of germany, trying do destroy it will suffer (in military standards, say, no army or navy at all), but not in colonies or areas...

the russians will suffer also, but not to extreme, cause an early vitory means the zar is still in power. So no problem.

Italy - being not in the war is no problem, they will still live with germany

poland - being no own country will not suffer more - so nothing change to 1913

only UK will suffer big, cause their dominace is gone - forever. The USA will take place one and never give it up.

if UK tries a second round, they have russia (beaten bad, so no thankyou), france (no troops, only a country defenceless) and italy (no conflict with germany), a-h, with internal problems, but it is ally nr1 for germany -no interests

the us of a is interested in free lanes for econonmy, if the brits try an embargo they will be beaten by germany AND the usa... nothing the empire survive long.

So round2 isn´t realistic

I don't think an early Germany victory is at all likely but I can't agree with what you say here? If it did happen then Germany might try and occupy with force all of France and Belgium, but that will be costly militarily, economically and diplomatically. If they don't then, as after 1870 France will want revenge, especially if their lost more land to Germany. Also a short war means everybody had lost relatively little. Russia will seek to regroup and rearm and so will Britain. Italy will be worried about German dominance as it relates to their quarrel with Austria.

Hence in this scenario German power will be increased but not that greatly so, and the other powers concerned about their pre-eminence and military aims will tend to be more hostile to their power growing further. That's simple balance of power at work.

If you say, germany wins late - things will differ

France - is helpless and will be full of german troops, german subs in french harbours :) so the subwar will get much more interested than in 1917/18
Italy - utterly beaten even by AH - no way the people will fight another stupid war against germany, the country that did nothing evil
Russia - well - russia is in no shape to do anything... at best the whites win against the reds.. but the germans will have a huge booster by the large portion of former russian industry/land.
The liberated people will be not unhappy with german "support", at last in the first 5 - 10 years
the poles will be angry, but with no direct support this is only a minor matter - say 2 german corps in 2 weeks and it is over - nothing the poles can do about it
the usa - if war is over before declaration of war - the same as in the early win scenario... if not, they will make a deal.

Given the strength of national feeling in a lot of those areas, the probable nature of German military occupation and the near exhaustion of Germany itself the empire, if it seeks to hold onto all the gains it might make is going to be in deep shit. There probably won't be major powers other than Britain clearly against German domination but there won't be any great need.

The situation in the east will be especially bad. You're talking about a huge area, with bitterly hostile population and a far more limited Germany in terms of technology and being near the end of it's tether. OTL the German army found a lot of the troops coming from the eastern front in 1918 were 'infected' with Bolshevik ideas and this could only get worse if their seeking to maintain a war economy and conscription even without a cold war with Britain. [Seeking huge imperial gains beyond Europe and trying to renew the already lost naval race with Britain will only strain it's economy further].


UK is doomed in both scenarios, if they do not accept german victory...
the osmans are no enemy of the germans, but of the brits. so a alliance between these two nations is not realistic for the 20ties or 30ties.

So no, the economic booster of the continental german economic alliance will earlier stablize the whole thing, only the brits will be unhappy - a good thing

If the brits try to much things the germans do the same - including uprisings in the large british colonies... i bet the brits will roll over very soon

I think the highlighted might give an idea where you're coming from.;)

If Britain was to accept a huge and aggressive German empire grabbing everything it could then it would probably be doomed.

Britain, presuming it adapted the same protectionist policies that are widespread in the rest of the world would hence get a substantial boost to it's economy. A lot of the market is poor but then sizeable amounts aren't and it would also be seeking to trade in 3rd market regions. Germany has a richer total market but then as Japan found in China in 1937-45 a captive market held at gunpoint can be a hell of a burden.

Britain may have unrest in some areas but it's going to be a lot less than what Germany will face as it will offer a much better deal to it's subjects.

also no merchant war - if you are not the biggest guy that can hurt his enemies, you kick only you

:confused: I think you need to clarify what you mean here? Guessing you mean because you think Germany will have a larger empire it can only win an economic war. If so you're wrong. A lot of other things come into play. Plus the main point I'm mentioning is that Britain removes a huge disadvantage it has previously imposed on itself. There's nothing really Germany or anyone else can do about that.

Steve
 
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