German vs. U.S. Naval Battle in Manila Bay

The Germans sent eight ships to ostensibly protect German interests in the Phillippines during the Spanish-American War and the German admiral on the scene (at the very least) acted like a provocative jackass.

http://countrystudies.us/philippines/13.htm

He backed down when threatened with violence. What if he hadn't and a battle broke out?

I'm thinking the German flotilla is going to get jacked.

What happens next is going to be interesting. Imperial Germany strikes me as having a chip on its shoulder and is a lot less likely to write this off as a moronic officer who picked a fight he couldn't win, especially if he had orders from Berlin to cause trouble.

(He didn't just behave arrogantly toward Americans, but he also helped the Spanish.)
 
Assuming the German fleet gets badly handled, we can probably imagine that the US doesn't accept the Spanish sale of Micronesia to Germany, and takes them in the peace. Then there's the matter of Samoa.

Presumably the Pacific is the main theater of the war, unless the Germans want to try escalating things by making a trans-Atlantic attack in the Caribbean. That doesn't seem likely to work out well though.

Where would the German fleet take on coal and supplies in the Pacific? The US might, if need be, have the goodwill of France and limited use of French ports in the way the Russians did in 1905.
 
MerryPrankster
He backed down when threatened with violence. What if he hadn't and a battle broke out? -snip- Imperial Germany strikes me as having a chip on its shoulder and is a lot less likely to write this off as a moronic officer who picked a fight he couldn't win, especially if he had orders from Berlin to cause trouble.

(He didn't just behave arrogantly toward Americans, but he also helped the Spanish.)

Yes, I have read this. While at Manila an extreme bullying episode, Imperial Germany had a number of 1890-1914 incidents like this, and it helped cut her off in WWI. I do not guess that direct orders were responsible but rather egging one's associates along situation in Thomas Abecket's 1170 slaying (the King was alledged to say things like "why is this guy still around"). Kaiser Wilhelm was a ripe pupil of Bismarck (until he threw the latter away in keeping with the idea) of bullying. Once faced with significant force, this faded away as bullies usually do on smaller levels. And like bullies, they usually have a poor circumstance to start it, in the case of the Kaiser, his arm was totally useless cripple.

In the unlikely case of forcing the issue, there were many ships in Manilla Bay then, far outnumbering those of the US (or Spain) in firepower. It would not be unlikely that Britain and French would have at least temporarily made a demostration that this is not the way it is going to be. Many a deep inroad was made that day and immediately afterwards with US/UK naval persons taking the high road together, I have read.

Also recalled, in the 1907 (?), there was serious grumblings in German of replacing Wilhelm with another royal. I think it was when he was talking about the Chinese threat to Europe (seriously) but he used a variation of this quote about the same time:

There was massive genocide in Sperrgebiet, in diamond-rich south-west Namibia. German imperialist Lieutenant General Lothar von Trotha was in charge of the killing. The Kaiser’s instructions were to ‘emulate the Huns’ in savagery. In 1907, Von Trotha decided to exterminate the entire Herero people.
 
So you're saying if the Germans had continued to misbehave, the British and French would have joined the Americans in slapping them down or that the British and French would forcibly separate the two sides?

Also, the talk of removing Kaiser Wilhelm is interesting. Could you elaborate more?
 
This near battle could have happened in Samoa if not for the storm that damaged both German and American ships.
 
So you're saying if the Germans had continued to misbehave, the British and French would have joined the Americans in slapping them down or that the British and French would forcibly separate the two sides?

Also, the talk of removing Kaiser Wilhelm is interesting. Could you elaborate more?

Could be either. It depends on how both sides react. Should the Americans act professionally, but in trouble, almost certainly they would have temporarily joined Dewey's fleet, I guess. Lots of sources say that the many national Fleets took up anchor and sailed from China/Hong Kong to see what was happening. Only the Germans were troublesome beyond any minor degree, but it was a nervous situation for all Americans then due to numbers. But increasinly the British and always for the French post Franco-Prussian war, the political situation was ripe for this kind of decisive action. Papers in France were not supportive of the action against Spain, but most certainly were against Germany.

It could have happened that the British and French would have forcibly placed themselves inbetween shots and said "I dare you", and then asked the Americans if they wish to intermix ships completely and provoking a multination incident if a shot lands on the wrong ship. That should have shut the Germans up real quick, as no one gets to Admiral rank without some kind of political sense, Corpus Callosum aside. But since we are speculating about personalities long since gone, the general tempo of the officer class then will have to do. Germans did not have a long set and tempered naval officer class, so were potentially more erratic, the French and English did have long traditions. Prussia was a land power, and Austria had much longer tradtions for the Adriatic exposure. (Lord Mountbatten's father, who joined the British Fleet from Prince consort Albert's Saxe Coburg I think, was asked after Germany joined together why he had done so. "When I joined, there was no Germany, much less a fleet.")

I read this stuff about 20 years ago, and many were books printed about the turn of the last century, soon after the fracas. Dusty old library books, which I find often have some really detailed accounts. Also commentary of 1930-1950 historians. Not much interest in the subject now of Manila, WWI being much more commonplace.

Unfortunately, I am pretty much at my comfort limits. I do remember an authoress published about 1983 who was sort of famous but the name escapes me (not Barbara Tuchman's Guns of August, but some one like her or another book of hers) writing an assessment and research that in those prewar days the Germans were actually just as honest and upright and witty as British top officers were, but not so well schooled in how to present themselves for the public international newspapers. Political dinosaur Officers like Smedley Bulter or Chesty Puller at times. The Kaiser and some politics were a problem, and the bully factor was existing, but this seems a circa 1898 situation with natural present reptilian officers of any navy saying pretty much what the powers that be want, so to punch the ticket of an officer advancement card, as an unchecked and on steroids modus operundi.

From what I get the impression of, the years 1890 (after the Kaiser booted out the adult supervision of Bismarck) till 1908 were the worst. After that the Kaiser mellowed somewhat till he really did apparently say at 1914 that it is time to "take the plunge" [into a world war] by an almost a flippant way. The earliest years were a fun time of adrenaline rants and harranges (as the Boil on the Kaisers Bum -- Helgoland/German East Africa Thread may have touched upon), to some advantage for Germany. A man name Hitler was accepted in large part 1920-40 because the older in the audience had heard Kaiser publically or read in print of earlier goings off the deep end historonically.
 
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It could have happened that the British and French would have forcibly placed themselves inbetween shots and said "I dare you", and then asked the Americans if they wish to intermix ships completely and provoking a multination incident if a shot lands on the wrong ship. That should have shut the Germans up real quick, as no one gets to Admiral rank without some kind of political sense, Corpus Callosum aside. But since we are speculating about personalities long since gone, the general tempo of the officer class then will have to do. Germans did not have a long set and tempered naval officer class, so were potentially more erratic, the French and English did have long traditions.

Well, that would leave Germany utterly buggered. Even a minor accident or failure of command at that point would have rather unacceptable consequences for Berlin, even presuming that cooler heads would prevail in Germany proper, avoiding a broader conflict than a naval affair with the United States. The diplomatic humiliation of backing down would have some fallout, even if it was clearly sensible.

Presumably if shots were exchanged and the British/French fleets intervened in such a manner, the US could still declare war on Germany. What a dramatic swing there'd be in American attitudes to the British and French!
 
Also recalled, in the 1907 (?), there was serious grumblings in German of replacing Wilhelm with another royal. I think it was when he was talking about the Chinese threat to Europe (seriously) but he used a variation of this quote about the same time:
Interesting, haven't heard of that before. Who would they of gotten as a replacement? The obvious choice is for his son Frederick Wilhelm the Crown Prince to take over but appoint a regent until he turns 21 as it gets him out of the way with the smallest amount of commotion, although there's still the possibility of his father trying to back seat rule as it were so that might put people off. Do we have any obvious candidates for being regent or being on a regency council?
 
Apparently there were even more "erratic" plans being cooked up in Berlin:

http://europeanhistory.about.com/library/weekly/aa050902a.htm

- as in invading the US proper, in case of a war :eek:

As the article says: "slightly fantastical" ...

Still ... what do you guys think? Would it have been remotely possible for the German fleet anno 1898 to land soldiers on US soil?

Sorry, for dropping that here even if it's somewhat related ... but I can see now that it's already been discussed elsewhere in the forum. Obviously one can get some mileage out of the invasion plan ("Operational Plan 3" it was called) for a POD, despite its inherent absurdities. But still
 
I think the plan for an invasion of the USA was just as serious as this pentagon plan for an uprising of the boy scouts: more an excercise or sort of fun but no imperial German ever really thought of going to war with the USA despite anything Conroy (1901 anyone?) or others might think.
 
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